Inflation's Impact on Financial Assets
A common belief is that risk assets are effective inflation hedges.
History suggests they are not.
This chart shows that the inflation of the 1960s and 1970s wiped out 64% of the after-inflation stock gains by 1982 (meaning inflation beat stocks by 64%). And all inflation-adjusted gains of the previous 27+ years (back to 1954) were gone (meaning inflation beat stocks over the previous 27 years).
It took until 1992, 28 years later, for stocks to finally start beating cumulative inflation since 1966.
Too many vastly underestimate the devastating impact of inflation.
Since the 2021 peak, when the Fed called inflation"transitory," stocks have only beaten inflation by just 15% (with dividends).
So a 10% to 12% correct and a little bit more inflation and four years of relative purchasing power is gone (meaning you are no better off than four years ago).
领英推荐
Many will reply asking how to invest if inflation is returning. The short answer is that there are no good options. Some niches like gold, broader commodities, or real estate might work. Others, too (possibly BTC). But all FINANCIAL ASSET classes lose with inflation. That's what the thread above is trying to illustrate.
To steal a line from crypto, if we get inflation, "have fun staying poor."
So, the answer is to make sure inflation never happens.
Inflation is devastating. It destroys societies, causes governments to fall, and starts wars.
The world had an inflation bout post-COVID, and inflation remains elevated relative to pre-COVID in most countries to this day. What has it meant?
In 2024, 76 countries, accounting for over half the world's population, voted for new governments—the most ever. The broad theme was to vote out the incumbents. It did not matter if they were conservative (UK) or liberal (US); incumbents had to go. And they are going worldwide, with only a few exceptions.
What is the number one reason cited for this anti-incumbent wave? Inflation, or high and rising prices.
So, I understand the gamesmanship everybody wants to play. How do I profit from inflation? The better question is how we can ensure it never happens.
Chief Economist at Alliance Bernstein 2001 to 2017 Economic Consultant
1 个月BLS changed the measurement of inflation. The correlation between house prices and stocks used to be negative, and now its positive.
Managing Director/Wealth Management /Financial Advisor/Board Member
1 个月Well said. And if there is inflation then one should consider working beyond the traditional retirement age.
Analytics Manager | Expert in Collections & Servicing Analytics | FinTech Innovation
1 个月An absolutely brutal truth post. Munger himself has said on inflation, "You can argue it’s the way democracies die."
Senior Analyst | Global Macro Strategies
1 个月Problem is, Jim, when they go Digital and create a CBDC they’ll just deduct 2% directly from people’s banks who don’t spend their full quotas for the year. No different from stealth thievery via inflation targeting at 2% per annum (which reveals the Fed’s real intentions, stealth debt default by inflation: by the Rule of 72, if the targeted annual inflation is 2%, then the Fed’s goal is to double the general price level every 35 years (72/2=36). The Fed doesn’t want stable prices, they don’t want stable prices! Who considers a doubling in prices every (roughly) 35 years “stable?” “our dual mandates, price stability and full employment” are equal parts bull sh**. To task the agency with these inherently conflicting goals given the set of tools the Fed is intended to work with is also disingenuous, as they are by their very nature conflicting. If prices are actually stable, employment suffers. If prices grow due to growing economic activity in the United States, this promotes full emplpyment. But our Chair Powell has emphasized many times his fear of the inflation-led wage price spiral, in which in-demand workers & higher prices lead to demand for higher wages which, in turn, drive prices higher (self-reinforcing).