Inflation We Ain't Seen Nothing Yet!
Inflation in North America Is Bad, and Will Only Get Worse. . .
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The Following is a Summary from Peter Zeihan’s July 13, 2022 Newsletter:
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????????????????????????????????????????????Why Increased Inflation Is Just Getting Started:
1)?????Fertilizer Limitations Globally
a)?????Chinese Restrictions of All Phosphate Exports
b)?????Russia Struggles to Export Pot Ash
c)?????Nitrogen Based Fertilizers Decline (Due to Increases Price in Natural Gas).
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2)?????Worlds # 1 (Russia) & # 4 (Ukraine) Wheat Exporters are at War
a)?????Russia destroying civilian infrastructure w/double emphasis on Ag infrastructure.
b)?????Ukraine likely a net importer of agriculture goods for at least several years.
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3)?????Boomers Accelerating Retirement and Zoomer 400,000 Position Shortfall
a)?????Shortages will increase every year from now until ~2034
b)?????By 2034 the worker shortage will be ~900,000
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4)?????These Pressures are NOT transitory!!
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5)?????US Consumer has $2 Trillion Stored Up Cash Still Available for Consumption
a) $2 Trillion Chasing Commodities/Assets = Increased Pressure/Prices
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6)?????Two Options to Control Inflation:
a)?????Suppress Demand or Increase Supply
b)?????Not likely to see either above any time soon
c)?????Therefore, August/September Inflation Data will be as bad or worse
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7)?????Because Boomers Had Children in the USA
a)?????USA still has Consumption Profile
b)?????The Fed can use Interest Rates to regulate Consumption Profile
c)?????Euro Zone Boomer No Children =Low Consumption = Increased Capital Costs at the same time of greater returns in the USA.
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8)?????USA is a Safer Bet = Increased Capital Inflows From Across Atlantic
a)?????Euro Currency Decreases in Value while imports denominated in USD continue to increase in value.
b)?????This will lead to massive inflation in Euro Zone.?
Learn More Here: Inflation? We Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet - YouTube
Chief Technical Officer bei CyKlone Tidal Energy
1 年Peter Zeihan I got a 100% failsafe investment tip: print shops for food stamps.
VP Business Development, Freight Breakers LLC
2 年Too funny!
Making a positive difference with an obsessive focus on client development and growth
2 年As I lean toward monetarism, a worldview holding that inflation is directly driven by changes in the money supply, I don't see any inflation letup until government spending slows down. At this time, it is simply not happening. If anything, more federal money is filtering its way into the economy. The interest rate lever at the Fed will not work unless gratuitous government spending is slashed. Either way, it will be painful for somebody . . .
Analyst at Shepra, Inc
2 年Nice. He released a video on his YouTube channel this morning discussing this as well. It seems like the agricultural reckoning is accelerating especially because of the fertilizer challenges. He mentioned a few days ago that we haven’t felt the results yet because we’re still on last year’s harvest. But that supply will probably end pretty soon.
- Motivation -
2 年Great read. Hoping for a plateau, but looks unlikely in the short term. ??