Inflation attack ads blame the wrong law

This week:?Kamala Harris sticks to talking points on MSNBC … JD Vance says murders are soaring in Springfield, Ohio … Checking Tim Walz’s claim on union membership and presidential tickets ... How AI images feed unsubstantiated claims about Springfield migrants

Republicans' misleading?messaging on inflation, explained

Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance has unveiled a new talking point to tie Democrats to inflation: Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tiebreaking vote to pass the "Inflation Explosion Act.”

His catchphrase echoes the name of the Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed in August 2022 after Harris, in her role as president of the Senate, broke a tie.

Other Republicans in competitive Senate races have similarly argued that the Inflation Reduction Act, contrary to its name, sent prices higher. In Montana, for example, Republican Tim Sheehy posted on X that his opponent, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, voted for the "‘Inflation Reduction Act’ (which) increased inflation and drove prices sky high!"

In Pennsylvania, an ad by the pro-Republican Senate Leadership Fund targeted Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, saying Casey "promised us his vote 'will reduce inflation.'" It shows a clip of Casey saying those words in an August 2022 floor floor speech in favor of the Inflation Reduction Act.

These attacks are misleading. Inflation didn’t rise after the Inflation Reduction Act became law; it fell. Although this was mostly for reasons other than the act itself, it undercuts the GOP talking point.?

An earlier law passed by Democrats, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, is generally blamed for exacerbating inflation. The Republican messaging doesn’t focus on this law; it inaccurately hypes a different law with a catchier name.

So why the sleight of hand?

— Louis Jacobson

Fact-checks of the week

We’re preparing for the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate between Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minn., and U.S. Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio. Here’s a look at our latest:

• State of the unions. Walz may be running to become vice president, but when giving speeches, he enjoys dusting off his old union card from his days as a high school teacher and coach. As a teacher in Minnesota, Walz belonged to the National Education Association, the nation’s largest teachers union. He said in a Sept. 21 appearance in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, that "the last union member on a national ticket (was) Ronald Reagan." There’s one problem with the talking point: A card-carrying union member named Donald Trump was on the ballot more recently, in both 2016 and 2020. We rate Walz’s claim?False. ?
• Mounting murders? Vance linked the recent immigration uptick in Springfield, Ohio, to rising violent crime. "Murders are up by 81% because of what Kamala Harris has allowed to happen to this small community," he said Sept. 15 on CNN’s “State of the Union.” His campaign cited data showing from 2021 to 2023, murders in Springfield rose from five to nine; that’s an 80% increase. But a crime data expert cautioned against making annual comparisons in places where less than one homicide is reported each month, noting that homicides would be considered too rare to draw conclusions. Also, FBI homicide data also showed that the number of homicides in Springfield fluctuated without a clear trend from 2012 to 2022. We rate Vance’s claim Mostly False.

4 quick fact-checks from Harris' MSNBC interview last night

We covered Vice President Kamala Harris’ first solo interview on a major cable news channel with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle on Wednesday night. Here’s a rundown of what she said:

Harris: (Former President Donald) Trump “left us with the worst economy since the Great Depression.”

Measured by unemployment, this is False. The unemployment rate spiked to a post-Great Depression record of 14.8% in April 2020, as the pandemic escalated. Trump was in office then. But he didn’t "leave" Biden or Harris with a post-Depression record unemployment rate. By December 2020, the unemployment rate had fallen back to 6.4%, which was high for recent history but well below numerous spikes during recessions.

Harris: Trump has “an agenda that includes tariffs to the point that the average working person will spend … an estimated $4,000 more a year” on everyday necessities.

Half True. Trump has repeatedly proposed wide-ranging tariffs on foreign goods, including a 10% to 20% across-the-board tariff and a 60% levy on goods from China. Although tariffs are imposed separately from the tax system, consumers would feel their impact much the same way as taxes. Two estimates we found generally support Harris’ $4,000 effect on consumers; but two show a smaller, though still significant, impact.

Harris: “Even before the pandemic, (Trump) lost manufacturing jobs.”

This is largely accurate. By two common metrics — employment and output — U.S. manufacturing was tipping negative starting in early 2019, Donald Trump’s third year in office.

Although manufacturing employment rose robustly for the first two years of Trump’s term, this job growth stalled in his third year and fell slightly before the pandemic hit during his fourth year. Manufacturing output, by two separate metrics, fell modestly but consistently following its 2018 peak. The data doesn’t point to a raging recession in manufacturing, but it does provide strong evidence of a downturn.

Harris: “Donald Trump is … the person who said women should be punished” for having an abortion.

This omits context. During a March 2016 MSNBC town hall, Trump said "there has to be some form of punishment" for women who have abortions. However, he walked back the comment after facing criticism. He said doctors should be punished for performing outlawed abortions.

More recently, in an April interview with Time magazine, Trump said some states "might" choose to monitor and punish women for illegal abortions. However, when asked about the topic, Trump told the reporter to "speak to the individual states" about it.

— Louis Jacobson and Matthew Crowley

Personal interpreters for Haitian schoolchildren in Springfield? No.

Former President Donald Trump said Springfield, Ohio, leaders have taken extreme measures to assist Haitian children in public schools.

During a Sept. 18 rally in Uniondale, New York, Trump said Springfield city leaders told him, “We're hiring teachers to teach them English. … So, when they go to school and take the place of our children in school, we have an interpreter. Each one will have a private interpreter."

Springfield City Schools Superintendent Robert Hill said federal and state funding have not generated enough resources for local schools to meet the needs of the growing immigrant community. Hill said the district had hired many teachers qualified to teach English as a second language while also forming university partnerships to help fill the need.?

But we found no evidence that each student "will have a private interpreter." We also found no evidence that non-Haitian students have been displaced.

Trump’s claim is False.

— Amy Sherman

Not-so-innocent cat memes: How AI creations fan false Springfield claims

Despite the lack of real images or videos proving the misinformation about Haitians in Springfield eating pets, social media users shared images of what looked like Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump protecting animals —?images created by generative artificial intelligence.

The House Judiciary GOP?shared in a Sept. 9 X post?an image of Trump cradling a duck and a cat, with the caption, "Protect our ducks and kittens in Ohio!"

On X, such images and videos showed?Trump?carrying?kittens while running?from?Black people?or?skeletons.?On?Trump’s Truth Social feed, a cat?held?a "Kamala Hates Me" sign and Trump stood behind a "Cats for Trump" lectern to address?a feline-filled room.

Artificial intelligence makes it easier for users to make such images.?These images differ from deepfakes that employ artificial intelligence to depict realistic events that didn’t happen; they depict scenes that often look too fantastical to be real.?

Experts?said it’s harder to gauge how these images land with the public and how to regulate them. But the experts also said the images contribute to hateful rhetoric that may spark real-world harm.

"With any AI-generated content, there's a risk that someone may take it literally, even if we think there are features of it that make it look absurd or unrealistic," Callum Hood, head of research at the Center for Countering Digital Hate, told PolitiFact. "But even where we have these images that are less realistic, they still serve the same kind of role that hateful or false memes have in the past, which is that they become a vehicle for the promotion of a particular message or narrative that is false or hateful or harmful." Keep?reading Staff Writer Loreben Tuquero's story.?

Quick links to more fact-checks & reports

• U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., exaggerated Republican U.S. Senate race rival Sam Brown’s support for cuts to Social Security and Medicare.
• Montana's?electronic ballot for overseas voters omitted Harris, but the glitch was fixed quickly.
• Union membership has increased under President Joe Biden, but it’s still not at pre-2020 level, PolitiFact Wisconsin reports.
• Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is wrong that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester backs “slashing Social Security benefits.”
• Has a Venezuelan gang member been arrested in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin? PolitiFact Wisconsin investigates.

Do you smell smoke??

Here's your Pants on Fire fact-check of the week:?Altered video?slowed?Vice President Kamala Harris’ remarks on abortion to fuel claims that she was intoxicated.

See what else we've rated Pants on Fire this week.

Have questions or ideas for our coverage? Send me an email at [email protected].

Thanks for reading!

Katie Sanders

PolitiFact Editor-in-Chief