Inevitable and Non-Inevitable Futures: See The Future Like Elon Musk Does.

Inevitable and Non-Inevitable Futures: See The Future Like Elon Musk Does.

“I’m just trying to think about the future and not be sad” (Elon Musk)

In his jaw-dropping TED interview, I urge you to spare time for, Elon Musk is putting forward his understanding of the future.

In Musk's words, the future is like "a branching stream of probabilities and there are actions that we can take that affect those probabilities.”

It is inspiring to hear Musk differentiate between “inevitable” and “non inevitable” futures. Using that distinction he explains how Tesla is fundamentally different from SpaceX. Tesla’s endeavors are exhilarating an inevitable future (because the development of sustainable energy is inevitable). While SpaceX’s aim of sending humans to deep space is promoting a non inevitable future and so it will have a fundamentally different impact on humanity and the planet.

I want to offer you a practical tool that will help you understand the future and act to influence it like Elon Musk does.

In the do-it-yourself tool which I developed, I call 'Fit For Futures', Musk's differentiation is translated into what we know and what is still unknown about the decision that we need to make today.

By focusing on what we do not yet know instead of on what we do know about the future, we create a map of the futures “stream of probabilities” and then can deal with not one or two, but with four plausible futures we might see actualized. Each of them equally probable.

By drawing this 2X2 map of non-inevitable futures, we can look at the effects of our decisions on each of these futures and act accordingly.

Check it out at www.fitforfutures.com and you too can start today to get fit for your futures, like Elon Musk does.

George Hemingway

Growth Strategy & Innovation Executive | CxO Advisor | Columnist | Keynote Speaker

7 年

Agree with Alan on this and doubly so because you are focused on creating 4 futures of EQUAL probability, which seems impossible to measure, much as it would be in scenarios work.

回复

I was with you until you got into probabilities...best to think prospectively about possible future scenarios and let go of predictive/probability-based mindset entirely...

Shahid Solomon

Transition Strategist at Now! The Tranition Journey

7 年

Great Initiative

William Nieusma

Corporate strategy and business leader who transforms organizations for value capture and growth

7 年

Sounds very much like RDS scenario planning.

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