Inevitable economic meltdown and only one way India can overcome this
Nuruddin Sheikh
Software Performance | Project Management | Cloud Virtualization | Data storage | Cyber Security | Software Productivity | Observability | Data Analytics | Java
Kingfishers shown how to get capital funding from debt market pledging speculative value of brand and not real asset.
Year Brand value of Kingfisher Airlines Money owed to banks (estimated)
2009: Rs 4,111 crore : Rs 4,000 crore
2012: Rs 3,008 crore : Rs 7,000 crore
2014: Rs 6 crore : Rs 7,000 crore
Source:https://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-of-rs-7000-crore-lent-to-kingfisher-banks-can-now-recover-just-rs-6-crore-2061256
several bank rushed to fund Kingfisher and wanted to get a share of growth in the airline. for example IDBI lent INR 700cr with the mortgage of Kingfisher brand which merely valued INR 6cr today.
There are probably more to it where there is nexus between top of the top bankers to the top of the business houses. It is hard to believe, where bankers hire top notch brains with pay check sometimes more than GDP of some indian states, can not calculate NPV of mortgages with best and worst possible risks and decide the exposure.
It seems like a chain of connections and backdoor negotiations to get the funding and real values of mortgages are part of it. Questioner of their decision is either punished or bull dodged by color full mathematics which includes value of securities which cant be represented by real numbers.
In india we have checks and balances to stop these capitalism tricks to amass wealth by a few. But all those instruments are getting hijacked and able to be by-passed by a few. where as real entrepreneurs who can be major long term contributor India's GDP get trapped by the same checks and balances. It is very evident at the ground level, businesses in the ranges of less than INR 50lakh revenue fail to acquire funding from any of the bankers, unless they pledges same funding equivalent real assets.
We have financial inclusion tools and motivate small businesses but still there is no place for real economics into play where risk-rewards balance is better if you fund 14000 INR 50lakh business instead of 1 INR 7000cr business. Bankers goes into mathematics of maintenance cost of funding 14000 businesses but ignorantly fails to match with their vision of financial inclusion and also consciously don't want to innovate in this space for unspecified reasons.
This is where we need to take leads from alternative financing world already have adopted post financial meltdown caused by speculative assets and greed of a few. Extend fund to build real assets, build for your own consumers, and build by many businesses specifically those reduce imports and improve exports. It is chain effect- build from ground up and macro economics will be built on solid realistic ground. bankers should expand their role beyond interest rate and build banking model on acquiring and building real assets and many of these from the ground level. change bankers mindset that genuine bankers value depend on real asset it acquired rather than increasing paper or digital currency flow through their system.
Otherwise inevitable meltdown ticking around us with focusing only on screw-loose-tighting policy between RBI and Finance ministry.
Principal Architect | Engineering Leader | Author | Ex-Cloudera, Amazon, Yahoo
9 年very well written.