Inestimable estimates at auction

The recent Phillips sale in London was a classic example of our thesis, that pre-sale auction estimates are a poor measure of economic strength in the marketplace. Artnet news described the sale as "middling" because the total fell below the aggregate low estimate, even though it was 88% sold by lot, and had exceptional results for cutting-edge artists. The competition for the seminal Tibbles Collection inevitably pushed those estimates higher, but the same result with lower estimates may have been heralded as a great success. "Such was the situation for Phillips, which had to compete with Sotheby’s and Christie’s for the ￡4 million Tibbles collection, and had to quote higher than they may have preferred." We unpack the malleability of auction estimates as an economic indicator in this Artsy editorial: