INDYCAR and the Coronavirus

The coronavirus pandemic has accomplished what only the First and Second World Wars accomplished in the past, the cancellation of IndyCar racing as well as most human gatherings. Was this the correct decision? Could we have done something less than mass cancellations? I don't know, and from what I can tell, neither do any of the experts at this time.  

We only have one similar event in our history to compare the current coronavirus pandemic, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. That pandemic infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide, or about one-third of the human population at the time, and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans. In comparison to World War I claimed an estimated 16 million lives. Even the lowest estimates of the influenza epidemic that swept the world in 1918 killed more people than that awful World War.

The control efforts worldwide in 1918 were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly. Do these methods sound familiar? While it is true that today we have much better medical treatments, what happens is we overwhelm our medical care system. Well, then it's about the same as it was in 1918. For comparison, let's assume the number of victims of the 1918 pandemic at a mid-point of the 20 - 50 million estimate or 35 million. The worldwide population in 1918 is estimated to be 1.8B. That gives us a mortality rate of about 2%. Today's population is estimated at 8B. If all things were equal, that would mean a loss of 160 million people. Now that number certainly has my attention. 

While I'm certainly sad that these cancellations have happened, the reality of not canceling such events is sobering. For how long, what are the long term effects, no one really knows, and health experts are doing all they know how to do. According to the CDC, even those that survived the 1918 pandemic had their average life expectancy to drop by about 12 years. 

So was this the right decision? If things go well, we will never know. But from what I now know, I respect the INDYCAR organization, its partners, sponsors, vendors, and fans who support this decision. If everything goes as hoped will hear the complaints about all of the cancelations, reschedule events, and the significant inconveniences thrust upon us because the actions taken worked. 

So here to the hope of seeing all of you at the next INDYCAR event. But also to see my many friends and family for years to come.