Industry Updates

Today NYC broke out of its range of the last month to hit a high of 271.80 cts/lb but settled at 258.55 cts/lb.?Reporting and discussions focused on the potential impact of prolonged hot dry weather in Brazil.?Supply and Demand models are very tight and a poor fruit set and therefore a poor crop for 2025 could result in supply not meeting demand by the second half of next year. Inventories in North America continue to be very tight.?The price increase in NYC and a widening of the inverted market is adding pressure on the spot market, with the availability of some coffees now closing.?? In South America: the Brazilian crop cycle is now completed, the Peruvian crop cycle is almost finished with few offers now available.?The Colombian crop flow is very limited but will start to build quickly in October. Logistics from origin to North America continue to present challenges with most shipments running up to 1–2 months behind schedule.? We also note that shipping rates out of Brazil are starting to increase as some shipping lines adding premium charges to the annually contracted rates. ?

COLOMBIA

The crop flow last week was very thin with shippers worried that hot dry weather is delaying the on coming harvest.?Overall our origin partners are expecting a good crop, with some pockets with issues.?In parts of Tolima, dry weather is causing some damage, erratic flowering and rising levels of cherry borer.?In Huila, the outlook remains positive, although hot dry weather is delaying the start of the harvest. In Cauca the crop flow is in transition with new crop expected to begin in October.?In the Narino the crop is coming to an end with 10 – 15% left.?In the North, a very limited flow of coffee has started. Differentials remain stable, although there are very few offers for nearby shipments.

PERU

The crop is almost completed with pockets of high-altitude coffees remaining.? Despite the jump in NYC the crop flow remains very subdued, an indication that coffee held by producers is not particularly significant.? Offers remain very thin and expensive.?Delays in shipments are increasing with some bookings now getting rolled by the shipping lines.?

INDONESIA SUMATRA

The spring crop is over, but there are still pockets of coffee at origin unsold.? Demand is soft, but shipments are slow so caution is recommended for additional nearby business. The new crop will start in September/October and ship in November forward.? Fixed prices have remained stable.??

CENTRAL AMERICA

The crop will start in October, but yields are likely to be low for the early/low altitude plantations.? An extended dry season pushing into late May resulted in a poor fruit set for those coffees.? The mid to higher altitude plantations are looking good and our origin partners are optimistic about the mid to later crops.?

'C' MARKET COMMENTARY

NYC hit a high of 171.80 cts/lb this morning and settled at 258.55 cts/lb up 20+ cts on the opening of Monday last week. Friday’s COT report showed the net funds position remains at 39.1 K lots net long and the commercial position reduced their short position by 1.2 K lots to 93.9 K lots net short.? On the other side, the Index funds reduced their long position by 1 K lots to 52 K lot longs.? The December/March inverted spread widened to 245 points. This continues the pressure the trade (exporters and importers) to maintain very tight inventories in North America. The Brazilian real strengthened by 1.2 % on the US$ dollar over the week, to settle at 5.15 today (Monday). Last week ICE stocks increased slightly on the week from 843.8 K bags to 850.8K bags with 25 K bags pending grading.