India's demographic dividend is useless

According to UNDP, amongst Indians above the age of 25, the average years of schooling received is 4.4 years (2013).

Pakistan was at 4.7 years, Bangladesh was at 5.1 years and China was at 7.5 years

While enrollments have boomed since 2004, we continue to have problems from secondary education onwards. According to the world bank, 69% of Indians continue to study after class VIII to pursue secondary education. It was 94% for China

The following chart shows the gradual fall in enrollment over a period of time. For example, of the 25 million people born in the year 2000, only about 18.6 million end up giving the Xth boards. Only about 13 million will attend classes in Class XI

When this is combined with statistics on what children are learning at school (NAS survey and ASER reports), one can easily conclude that not more than 35% of our children have learnt anything of consequence at Schools.

When you combine that with a 60% work participation rate (on the higher side), out of the 25 million born every year only 5.25 million people every year will contribute meaningfully to India (My estimates adjusting for secondary education, quality of education (50%) and workforce participation (60%))

China on the other hand has some 16 million people born a year and given the better quality of education (70%) and better labour force participation (70%), they will have 7 million contributing meaningfully to their economy. This will continue to be more than India.

Therefore, I am not certain how our demographic dividend will be of any advantage if most of the population is either unschooled (30%), poorly schooled (50%) or do not want to work (40% of the population). Taxpaying Indians must seriously ask our Government as to what they intend to do to fix this problem soon. We spend massive sums of Taxes on subsidies (some 500000 crores versus almost the same amount on School education) every year with no significant improvements in standards of living for the vast millions of poor and lower middle class Indians. It appears now that we will continue to be satisfied with 6-7% growth while most of the rest of the world enjoys high standards of living.