India's Climate Roulette Game

Every year, India spins the weather roulette wheel. The stakes are high, and the outcomes are far from certain—will it be a season of drought, a downpour of rain, or a cyclone barreling towards the coast? No one knows for sure, but what is for certain is that the consequences of these weather gambles are becoming more and more severe.

This pattern of weather in India has always been diverse, ranging from the dry deserts of Rajasthan to the lush coastal plains of Odisha. However, of late, with the effect of climate change, unpredictability in the weather pattern has increased with every passing year. Now, each region of the country is rolling dice on whether this year will invite floods or drought, cyclones or heat waves. The stakes have never been so high. As nature continues to surprise, how can India hedge its bets against the climate gamble? ?

Indian monsoon, once a pretty predictable season and life-giver, has become one of the biggest wild cards of this nation. The 2023 monsoon brought deluge and drought to large parts of the country. Heavy rains in Himachal Pradesh resulted in massive landslides-induced flooding and river overflows causing destruction to infrastructure, houses, and even some source of income that went up in ruins. Meanwhile, Maharashtra was staring at drought conditions for the second successive year, thereby straining its water resources and crippling its agricultural productivity—because, apparently, the rain gods just forgot to check their calendar. However, the story doesn't end there. This year, parts of India also witnessed record-breaking rainfall, places known in general for their arid climate of Delhi and Rajasthan saw heavy rain, causing urban flooding in the parts of Delhi that aren't normally accustomed to such downpour. This is a risky circumstance for India's agricultural sector, which accounts for almost half of India’s workforce. Droughts or irregular rainfall not only affect food production but also rural economies. Formal efforts such as irrigation and watershed management, will be crucial to reducing dependence on increasingly erratic rainfall. This inconsistency in rainfall is a reflection of broader shifts in weather patterns, making adaptation essential for survival.

The long coastline of India on the Bay of Bengal side and the Arabian Sea is prone to cyclones. However, recent data speaks of an increase in its frequency and intensity. Cyclone Mocha in the year 2023 caused tremendous damage to West Bengal and Odisha. Global warming has energized the rising temperatures of the sea, which are now getting tough and raising such storms, which cannot be predicted and even governed. This is not a standalone event, global warming continues to escalate sea temperatures, providing fuel for stronger, more unpredictable storms. This ?demonstrates that the threat of climate change is not just limited to inconsistent rains or droughts but extends to an uptick in violent storms. Formal risk management strategies in this context include the construction of cyclone shelters and the development of sophisticated early warning systems, which have greatly reduced casualties, however, economic and infrastructural damages remain high and points towards the need for better defences against future storms.

?Another scorching heat wave happened this summer in India; it soars to as high as 50°C in western and northern Indian states such as Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The biggest hazard created by climate change for society in general and for urban centres in particular is extreme heat events. This places yet another essential question in the limelight: strain on urban infrastructure. Power grids collapse due to heat, electricity demand surges, and cascading service shutdowns to water supply and the like become episodes of life in metropolitan centres under climate stress. In addition, these events paint a relatively vivid picture of what life in urban centres would require nationwide efforts to cope with and manage against heatwaves. However, with heatwaves of the type reported in 2024 now becoming much more frequent, the scaling of initiatives across all places around the country becomes an urgent necessity with a view to readiness.

Just as heatwaves create chaos in urban areas, droughts remain one of the silent yet significant risks in urban areas in India's climate roulette. One of the worst droughts Karnataka ever faced occurred in 2023, and it all had a bad impact on agricultural output. As access to water continues to get ever-decreasing, crops become intolerable to cultivate and thereby leading to economic instability and migration to the urban sphere. Future steps should focus on encouraging drought-resistant crops, thus improving groundwater conservation.

India’s climate roulette is being rigged by global warming. According to the 2023 IPCC report, rising global temperatures are amplifying extreme weather events, making them more severe and less predictable. This phenomenon has made risk management more complex, requiring a coordinated approach that addresses everything from infrastructure to policy.

Rising waters in coastal areas are now posing threats and surging floods can also be triggered from the accelerated melting of glaciers in the Himalayas. Again, such trends emphasize what is imperative for India to concentrate on all-round sustainable development with climate resilience. As a country continues to face the impacts of climate change, proactive planning and building resilience have to remain high on the agenda for India. Investments in disaster-resilient infrastructure, enhanced early warning systems, and climate-smart agriculture are all steps that could mitigate risks brought by the capricious weather. In the game of the roulette wheel of weather, India can bet for its outcomes with a smart policy and sustainable development. In this game of climate gamble, preparedness is the only safe bet.

Jiya Wadhwa

Intern at MIGS Global Consulting Pvt Ltd.

Student at Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC)