Indian Operator's Subscriber Net Adds

The following note captures the subscribers net adds for all the operators as published by TRAI from time to time. This is one of the parameters that drive their overall market performance.

Bharti & Tata

Since Bharti has decided to acquire Tata and therefore the subscriber net adds of the two companies are shown side by side. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

Bharti's overall subscriber net adds have decreased over the year, with negative net adds for the first time in the month of Aug 2017, whereas Tata has been losing subscribers over the years but strangely has managed to grab a large number of subscribers (of 4.89 million) in the last month (Aug 2017). It is not clear how Tata managed to gain a huge market share in that month while it was steadily losing market share in the earlier months.

Vodafone & Idea

Since Vodafone and Idea have decided to merge therefore the subscriber net adds of the two companies are shown side by side. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

Both Vodafone and Idea have been losing market share steadily, and their subscriber net adds are highly correlated with each other. They together have lost more than 9 million subscribers in the month of July and August 2017.

RJIO

The figure below shows RJIO's subscriber net adds in this calendar year. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

RJIO's subscriber net adds have decreased over the months but it is has managed to add subscribers at an average rate of 5 million per month (March to August).

BSNL & MTNL

The figure below shows BSNL & MTNL's subscriber net adds in this calendar year. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

BSNL has been able to maintain its rate of adding new subscribers @ 0.84 million (average rate) between April to August 2017. MTNL, on the other hand, has lost market share during the same period @ 3 K Subscribers/Month.

RCOM & Aircel

RCOM and Aircel were in a merger discussion which has been recently called off. Hence they are shown together for this purpose. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

Interestingly, their net-add trend is highly correlated. RCOM has lost more than 9 million subscribers and Aircel 2 million in this calendar year till August 2017.

Telenor

Telenor has decided to merge with Bharti. Its net adds trend is shown in the figure below. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

Interestingly, the rate of subscriber loss in the case of Telenor has decreased over past few months.

Combined Picture

The following picture is the snapshot of the all the operator's net adds in this calendar year. Note units shown in the figure are in millions.

Note in the last month on operators who have gained market share is BSNL, RJIO, and Tata. Rest all have lost market share.

Conclusion

TRAI's data clearly points out the market is consolidating. Though Bharti has lost market share, it has been able to maintain its overall numbers. BSNL has not yet been impacted. Vodafone & Idea is still to stabilize. Strangely, Tata has managed to capture a huge market share in the last month. The reasons for the same is not clear. RJIO is gaining market share at a steady rate. It is clear that until Aug 2017 the market has not yet stabilized and we have to wait for TRAI to publish data for the remaining months in order to make any further conclusions.

(Views expressed are of my own and do not reflect that of my employer)

PS: Find the list of other relevant articles in the embedded link.