Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends

Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends

Rainfall boosts mosquito breeding, leading to dengue spikes weeks later. This graph shows dengue cases rising after rainfall peaks, with highest cases at 28-30°C. Effective control measures must target (pre- and) post-rainy periods to curb outbreaks.

Previously, El Ni?o events were identified as a factor in dengue dynamics. According to an analysis by the World Health Organization (WHO), dengue cases have surged ten-fold between 2000 and 2019. Reported cases have increased from 500,000 to 5.2 million over this period.

Using incidence from 1990 -2019, researchers identified the Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW) index, a measure of sea surface temperature anomalies, as a key predictor of dengue outbreaks.

This index can forecast outbreaks up to 9 months in advance, compared to the 3 month lead time provided by local temperature data.

The IOBW index’s extended lead time allows for more effective public health responses, such as targeted mosquito control and resource allocation.

The index influences local temperatures through teleconnections, which affect mosquito breeding and virus transmission. This link makes logical sense: warmer temperatures generally increase mosquito activity and virus spread.

Monitoring the IOBW index could revolutionize dengue prevention by providing a robust early warning system. This approach leverages the intricate relationship between climate patterns and disease dynamics, offering a powerful tool for public health planning.

Understanding these climate-driven mechanisms can enhance our ability to predict and mitigate the impact of dengue, potentially saving lives and resources.


Paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj4427

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