Indian National Security & Climate Change- Lessons from Ladakh

December 2021 could have been monumental for the world as the UN Security Council voted on a historic resolution to include climate crisis under the mandate of the UNSC, arguably the only (or lets be diplomatic and say "most") effective organ of the United Nations.

This Resolution tabled by Niger and Ireland aimed to recognize climate change as a threat to global peace and security- seems like no brainer right?

Well it was so for 12 out of the 15 members of UNSC and it was equally unsurprising to see Russia vetoing this resolution and China abstaining.

But what really stood out was how aggressively India- the self proclaimed leader of the Global South also stood against this idea.

A country with over 7500 kilometers of very vulnerable coastline, immigration problems and a burgeoning population with little to no resources (80 crore families will not be able to afford even basic food for the next 5 years according to the ruling party's manifesto), and the kind of topography we have, one would imagine would warrant for a more nuanced approach to this situation.

Looking at climate change as a threat to national security or global security is important, number one because it really actually is a threat to all of it and number two the only two drivers of cohesive global/national actions in my lifetime have been "business interests" and "security interests" and looking at climate change as a threat to global businesses is one of the strongest forces behind whatever little climate action that happens even now. If you add the security dimension to this list, our climate action and ambition would become much much more effective.

Its been less than 3 years since India's very public and vehement opposition of this "securitization" of climate change and I want to take a closer look to how the situation in India has devolved since and why if hard evidence and rational logic is to be believed, it is in India's best interest to see the climate crisis as the SINGLE LARGEST threat to her National Security.

The first example in my argument is obviously Ladakh. Ladakh's location and topography make it one of the most sensitive and important territories under the Indian Republic. The now Union Territory is bordering Pakistan on one side and China on the other, both of whom are highly hostile towards India and have historic contentions on where the borders should have been located. China's recent adventures of land grabbing in Ladakh have resulted in the loss of lives of several dozen Indian security personals and such is the sensitivity of the area that the military to citizen ratio is 2:1 in Ladakh.

So I don't think anyone in their right minds would contest the strategic importance of Ladakh in India's National Security strategy. But other than a piece of land, Ladakh is also an ancient civilization with villages spread across the terraneous mountains and glaciers, with their own language, customs, food and ways of living. Today at a time when China has either taken or is trying very hard to carve out some highly strategic territories out of Ladakh for itself, 1/3rd of Ladakh is sitting on the streets and protesting.

This should ring alarm bells all over the country, our strongest claim to Ladakh (which of course is an inseparable part of India) is the people of Ladakh. The Ladakhi call themselves Indians and therefore Ladakh is in India.

This kind of civil unrest creates a ripe opportunity for India's enemies to come and take advantage- manipulating, funding and arming insurgents through discreet operations is neither beyond China nor Pakistan and they have demonstrated this several times both in Punjab and the North East in the past.

We on the other hand are serving Ladakh to our enemies on a silver platter.

It is only because of the unwavering patriotism of Ladakhi leaders like Sonam Wangchuk that despite the months and months of protests the situation has remained exceptionally peaceful. But, protests have a history of becoming volatile if allowed to foster for too long and we we would do well to remember that.

Sonam Wangchuk fasted for 21 days at a stretch and is fasting again now, the women of Ladakh also fasted for days and so will the youth, clergy and senior citizenry of Ladakh all to the deaf ears of the administration. What stage of volatility will the situation reach if by accident (and god forbid) even one of these protesters meets a fatal end?

What kind of anger and what kind of demonstration of this anger will the currently peaceful Ladakhis show then? Can anyone say for sure?

So why has the Indian state found itself to be in such a precarious position at such a sensitive time? Well the answer would highlight the great irony of India's position at Security Council- the reason for this massive unrest and agony is very simple- the deteriorating environment of Ladakh.

Villages have been abandoned because there is no water left to drink, the world famous Pashmeena breeders are shifting to cities because they have no grazing grounds left for their herds to feed on, the sheer scale of construction in a highly ecologically sensitive area and the kind of garbage that the tourist footfall (which is now several times more than Ladakh's own population) has coalesced into a devastating crisis of existence and identity for the indigenous populations of Ladakh.

There is no doubt that by canceling the protesters' "Pashmeena March" for the umpteenth time citing security concerns, the Indian state does recognize the national security implications that this protest has created.

In fact, I am sure that the backtracking of the government on the promise of Schedule 6 and greater autonomy of decision making which are the two main things Ladakh has been asking for is also derived from National Security concerns.

But can it all be seen in a silo, divorced from the environment on which all of this actually exists?

Even beyond the civil unrest, the rapidly melting glaciers of Ladakh and the increase of landslides and other extreme weather events in Ladakh pose a critical threat to India's highly strategic military resources and network, once again making quick deployment of troops in a situation of emergency extremely challenging.

Therefore, the "securitization" of climate change is not just direly needed but has in fact become a fundamental reality of our existence and turning our heads away from it is a disservice to the peoples of India and the World.

Ladakh is just one of many examples, most of our border states are highly ecologically sensitive and are bleeding profusely because of climate change (think Sikkim floods and fishery crisis between India and Sri Lanka)

Energy security which is also a central pillar of National Security is also at great threat because of climate change in India. The now regular obliteration of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh's Hydel infrastructure (which maybe a unique case of cause and effect at the same time, but more on that later) is just one example of this.

Another example which is on its way to becoming a terrifying reality is- immigration.

Such is the problem of Bangladeshi migrants for India that the Parliament had to pass a highly protested bill to curtail the same. The home minister has promised the country that the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) will be a reality if their government comes to power, which it almost certainly will.

However another fact is that right now in 2022, over 7 million Bangladeshis were displaced due to extreme weather events and this number is expected to double by 2050. Will any law on a piece of paper stop actual real people from coming and saving their lives if half of Bangladesh is under water?

Same is expected from Myanmar, Sri Lanka and many other neighbors of ours.

What kind of demographic and security implications would this have for India?

Today, while many Indians rejoice at the sight of Pakistan's agrarian crisis, some erudite citizens may also point out that such a situation would only create further uncertainty and misgovernance and would result in fringe, extremist elements to consolidate even further control of Pakistan- which spells out some serious serious threats for India's peace and security.

Our own agrarian crisis is no laughing matter either, the dying productivity of soil and obliterated water tables of Punjab are the de facto reasons for the civil unrest happening for the past few years, leading to the rise of anti-national separatists to gain popularity to the extent that prime ministers of other countries are now personally involved in the global diplomatic catastrophe that this has become. One may keep in mind that Canada has historically been an important trading and strategic partner of India and so have the other members of the "5 eyes Alliance" with whom we stand at odds now.

All of this is not divorced from climate change, it is a consequence of climate change.

The rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq was preceded by debilitating agrarian crisis (caused by climate change) in the region, there was a mass migration of people from their traditional villages and these very people- who had lost their homes, identities and livelihoods became the foot soldiers of the Islamic State reaping havoc across the globe.

As water vanishes from South India like it has in Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad and internal displacements become the rule and not the exception- what kind of a scenario will be created for India?

Would the states with limited water resources keep it for themselves or would they share it with other Indians as well?

As a Bihari I already now how "othered" we are in places like Maharashtra even now when we are just taking their underpaid labor jobs, what would happen when it would be us or them for something as fundamental as a bowl of rice?

Ladakh is not the first lesson and it will not be the last and rest assured each oncoming lesson will be more extreme than the previous one.

These and many more are some pertinent questions that the Indian administration must ask of itself before opposing the "securitization" of climate change.

And as Bob Dylan proclaimed to the world as far back as in 1963, "the answer my friend is blowing in the wind. The answer is blowing in the wind."