Indian Household Debt I Market at crucial juncture I Low Volatility Index

September 08, 2024 ? | ? Read Online

Worrying Rise in Indian Household Debt especially non-housing

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• Bad jobs data spooked US markets and they have now corrected substantially from the top (The Nasdaq is down almost 11% from the highs).
• The coming week will be crucial as both Nasdaq and Dow are at imp support levels of 16,000 on the Nasdaq and 39k/40k on the Dow (these levels breaking could have quite a short-term cascading impact on global equities including India).
• Several macro triggers are negative for domestic equities viz. Fairly under impressive quarterly results, political uncertainty could rise post the state election results, possibility of Harris win will accelerate the de-dollarisation theme – the only thing that continues to stand against all these is “Liquidity”.
• Risk reward in the near term (read as over next 3-6 months) is unfavourable in our mind – Upside being possibly a max of 1,000 points on the Nifty and downside being potentially much higher (3,000 points or little more in an unlikely combination of continued weakness in US markets, a negative US election outcome and domestic political worries).
• As clearly mentioned in our last week newsletter – We would avoid any further addition to equities lump sum only unless one is fairly under-owned in stocks.
• We recommend a 6m STP with a 5% lump sum at every 250-point dip on the Nifty (this is a generic advise and will differ from individual to individual).
• Gold could continue to do better as prospects of a Harris win looks a tad more probable as of now (Gold ETF’s could be the best bet for now for domestic investors).

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ICICI Prudential Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 ETF FOF - Direct – Growth

As markets look nervous with several negative factors at play, over valuation and front in pockets coupled with tepid results season, we feel that low volatility and quality as a factor will come back to play. Last 2-3 years momentum and high beta and ruled the charts and the next 2 could see a change in leaderboard.

We strongly believe in investment cycles and this theme could be a great risk reward bet which helps participate in the markets while keeping risk managed. We can already see some convergence happening over the past 1 month

Top Holdings:

? HUL ? ITC ? Sun Pharma ? ICICI Bank ? Asian Paints

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Why hobnobbing with celebrities does not guarantee integrity A 2200 cr. eq trading scheme unearthed

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A great AI website that helps analyse spreadsheets. Needs some work but good for basic usage and maybe can work better if someone is willing to explore deep.

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Our founder helps a Mint reader answer a query on taxation on capital gains

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• Oil drops below $70 USD

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