India - Vision 2030

India is celebrating its 72nd Republic Day on the 26th of January. Half the population is below 25 & two-third is below 35 years of age. With an average age of 29, India is among the youngest nations in the world, well ahead of China which is at 37. India is going to enjoy this population dividend over the next 4 to 5 decades. It would take 30 years to reach the average age of Chinese today. How are we going to leverage this population dividend? What should be the vision for young India for this decade? What should be India's strategic priorities to fulfill its ambition? How can India achieve inclusive growth? How would India look from the outsiders' perspective? This article is a review of India Vision - 2030 & beyond.

Blind westernization is just as bad as inertia to change.

Last Mover Advantage The last-mover advantage can push India up, provided that we learn lessons from the development experiments & models of other countries. Indian leaders have to draw the right inferences & make correct choices. India's strategic priorities are defined by the prevailing socio-economic environment, demographics, ethos, culture, and political compulsions. They are radically different from the Western world and China. Hence what worked there may not work here in the exact form, scale, & cost. Also, the methods to be used have to be different.

India needs to draw right inferences, avoid the traps, & be choosy in benchmarking other successful nations.

I have traveled extensively in America, Europe & China for over a couple of decades. I also got many opportunities to travel to the interiors of key Indian states of Maharashtra, UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Punjab, Gujarat, etc. This international & national travel has been for selling & marketing work, teaching, research, consultancy & presentations in conferences. It provided me a chance to have one on one interaction with importers, retailers, wholesalers & farmers. I could visualize what can work in India, how India's path has to be different, what the world expects from India and what India can expect from the world. Let us imagine the vision of India for this decade & beyond.

Innovation, technology & entreprenership were core to to the American strategy. Cost leadership was central to the Chinese way.

Comparative & Competitive Advantages. Europeans focussed on developing command over the sea, firearms & mass-production technologies through industrialization. Japanese replaced men with machines & achieved manufacturing excellence through incremental approach rather than breakthrough inventions. Every developed nation focused on a few core things & developed its strategy around that core. Michael Porter referred to that core as a comparative advantage. Companies from those countries developed their competitive advantages around that comparative advantage to over-power their competitors & dominate the industry. What are India's comparative advantages? Where India is superior to other nations? How to leverage things which come naturally to us?

There is an opportunity hidden within every disadvantage.India's population can be that.

Population- Blessing in disguise? India has been struggling with population explosion, poverty, inadequate funding, etc. But that can be forged as an advantage to offer mass markets, reduce the cost of production by increasing hands at work & boost up agriculture which is labour intensive. India ranks second in the world in agricultural output. About 60% of India's manpower is already employed in the agriculture & allied sector.

For inclusive growth India has to balance growth in agriculture, industry & services.

Sectoral Balance Western countries focussed on the service sector whereas China focused on manufacturing. India can't do either because of its demographics. While it is mandatory to focus on software & IT, India has to improve its performance & economic contributions from agriculture & industry. India can't afford a tilt in favor of any specific sector. Agricultural contribution to the Indian economy has gone down to 18% & the agricultural allied industry like fisheries, animal husbandry etc contributed to 15% by maintaining the fair share of agriculture. No developed nation has agriculture sector contributing to GDP more than 2%. Even Chinese agricultural sector contributes only 7% of the GDP (even if China is the largest producer of agricultural products in the world). Brazil & Mexico have rich agriculture but it contributes less than 5% of their GDP.

India is the only major economy with agro sector contributing in double digit, to GDP.

The industry is maintaining its fair share of 30% of GDP which should go up to 35-40% to ensure employment to a huge pool of engineers & other technicians. 30% agriculture, 40% industry & 30% services can be a good mix & match for the long term sustainability of the Indian economy. The policymakers have to ensure employment for the large pool of non-IT engineers & also non-engineering graduates. Services & value-added agro-products can target exports whereas industry can support domestic demand rather than trying to get into the price war with China. 'Make in India for India' can be the right approach.

China is facing the heat of urbanization. India has to benchmark Germany & avoid developing metropolitan areas like NCR & MMRDA.It will generate many side effects

Geographic Balance India has to study & follow the German model of geographically diversified & balanced development. Excessive development of just a few states can be a problem. India must expand the industrial base in UP, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, Rajasthan, MP, Odisha, and West Bengal. There is too much outward migration from these states. Even if talent & skills are available in these states, opportunities are limited. Relatively younger states like Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Andhra, Telangana & Goa need more support to catch up with other developed states. North-Eastern states & Assam need basic facilities like higher education institutions/universities, airports & better connectivity to the rest of India. Cultural rehabilitation of the North-Eastern population is required across the country. They shouldn't be getting different treatment because of their 'oriental looks'.

Farming is taking back seat in the developed states like Maharashtra, Gujrat and Karnataka. Suicide of farmers reflects that.

Focusing IT Sector During my recent visit to the interior parts of Maharashtra I was pleased to see many young boys & girls from villages have completed engineering & are working for the top Indian IT companies based in Pune, Bengaluru & Mumbai. Every fifth house has their son or daughter working in America. IT has penetrated well even in the villages of Western Maharashtra. We should see that as a national picture, soon.

The average salary of young IT professionals is really low. It is because of the lower technology work assigned to them.

India needs a second wave of IT revolution which must focus on higher technologies & innovations like the Internet of things, AI, VR, Big Data, Cloud, etc. I recollect the IT revolution in the late 1990s when there were many computer coaching classes all over India. We need a similar boost in higher technology areas. Read the PwC report on the eight emerging technologies that will impact businesses. Click the link below:-

Solar Power The latest ranking of global solar companies by Mercom Capital ranks the Adani Group as the number one global solar power generation asset owner. Adani’s renewable energy portfolio exceeds the total capacity installed by the entire United States solar industry. More & more business houses should get into solar power. That is the only way to check our petrol bill & the rising petrol prices along with respite to the global warming.

India is the only country among G20 nations which is on track to meet what it had promised in 2015 under the Paris Agreement on climate change 

In fact, no country has 1.5-degree Celsius aligned renewable energy targets including the top three emitters — China, the US and the EU . In the year 2015 Prime Minister Modi visited Tesla plant in California. At Tesla, Mr. Modi was not really looking to bring the technology behind Elon Musk’s highly successful electric car but had his eyes on the 'Powerwall' and how this solar battery could help India tap solar energy. The $3000 Tesla Powerwall could help make a lot of Indian households self-sufficient in their energy needs. Watch the video of Mr. Modi's visit by clicking the link below:

Technology In 1980, Rohini became the first satellite to be placed in orbit by India. Till date, India has launched 328 satellites for 34 different countries. India has become the first nation in the world to have entered the Mars orbit in the first attempt. ISRO's MOM is also the cheapest such mission till now. Manufacturing satellites & launching them for other countries can be a good business for India.

Remittance to India Indians have been migrating globally & sending remittances to India. This is the largest source of foreign currency earning for India. India has been the top remittance-receiving country in the world. In 2018, about 34 million Indians remitted $79 billion which is more than 20% of the Indian exports. More than half the remittance comes from Indians working in the Gulf region. India has to facilitate such remittances & promote it. These citizens are to be treated like soldiers who are sacrificing personal life for the country. Exports by Indian IT companies is about $150 Billion. Thus, exports by IT & remittances by ex-pats contribute to 75% of the Indian foreign exchange earnings.

Exports This has been challenging for India. India's exports to Latin America, Africa & Australia (Oceania) are pathetically low (less than 13%). For value-added exports India has to come out with a strong strategy in IT, organic chemicals, pharmacy & machinery sectors. China's exports in more than 800% of the Indian exports Similarly Germany, France & UK have higher exports. We must study the success factors of these nations & formulate our export strategy around our comparative advantages.

Retaining Talent This has been the most difficult task for India. The institutions of excellence like IITs are centers for migration. India has been suffering brain-drain for the last many decades. How to retain the talent & make it work for the nation is the major challenge. Welcoming foreign universities to set-up campuses in India is the right step. Making education employment driven & facilitating better industry-university relations is required. Entrepreneur education should provide certain privileges like priority funding, exceptions from certain nagging laws, etc.

Employment Generation & Start-ups Providing employment to millions of youth & supporting them to get into start-ups is a daunting task for the government. It has to be taken as the top priority agenda. Indians are prudent businessmen, they are good at growing even in the negative environment. 'Start-up India' is an excellent initiative taken by the Modi government & we must support it whole heartedly.

Water Shortage Southern India has been facing acute water shortages. It has to be handled as a priority issue. Cities like Bengaluru, Chennai & Hydarabad must get respite from this burning issue.

Internal Migration about 40% of the Indian population has migrated internally during the last 2 decades. Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu have been the major attractions for the migrants. Migration is putting pressure on the local infrastructure & generating socio-economic problems. Maintaining geographic balance in economic development is the only way out.

Friendly Neighbourhood India has to learn an important lesson from America. The major reason behind their economic prosperity is the friendly relations they share with their immediate neighbours. India needs peaceful borders & prosperous neighbours. Making peace with China & Pakistan is very important. We will have to trade-off certain positions & keep certain politically sensitive issues on hold, in the larger national interest. We can't complain about the political systems of our neighbours. It is their internal issue & their citizens will take care of it. India must avoid the image of a bullying neighbour & shouldn't allow others to bully as well.

About the Author: Prof Dr. Ajit Patil was awarded 'Top Voice on LinkedIn - 2017'. He is a Management Writer; Marketing, Business Development & Retailing Consultant. He conducts Management Development Programmes; trains & coaches Sales & Marketing teams. He has been teaching MBA students in India & overseas for over 18 years. He can be reached at [email protected]

Prof. Dr. Ajit Patil during his recent trip to Western Maharashtra