India, USA Driven by Geopolitics

?India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi arrives for a three-day State Visit to the United States this week. This is his sixth visit to America as Prime Minister.?Today’s India is the largest country by population, the fifth largest economy in the world and a top ten trading partner to the United States.

Yet much of Western media is stuck in a 1990’s mindset.?

The primary stories in the New York Times talk about a cyclone, a train crash and a heat wave. ?American politicians blather about how India and the USA are two great democracies. Time Magazine says the Biden invited Modi for a state visit to please Indian American voters. The Economist’s Banyan contradicts itself by saying India’s economy has not done better under Modi than in the rule of Dr. Manmohan Singh’s corrupt cabinet. The cover of this publication shows India as a timid pet tiger being stroked by an oddly casual Joe Biden and its main story claims falsely that India does not love the West (while 200,000 Indian students pay out of state tuition, American brands from Apple, Coke, to Dell, to FedEx, to HP, to Whirlpool are embraced by Indians).

?

Why did Biden invite Modi for a State Visit?

American protocol classifies many kinds of visits for visiting Prime Minister or President of a country with the State Visit including the pomp and splendor of a 21-gun salute, an official State Dinner, and much else.?Biden has held only three such State Visits since taking office. The cherry on top ffor India is that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has asked Narendra Modi to address a Joint Session of Congress.

The true reason behind this high degree of attention to India is Geopolitics.

·???????An increasing assertive China flexes its muscle in the South China Sea, has virtually taken over Hong Kong making a mockery of its commitment of "one country two system for 50 years", rattles sabers over the island of Taiwan and "accidentally" flies sophisticated balloons over the American mainland.

·???????President Xi has trampled on a 4-decade precedent of two terms per leader and appointed himself leader for life, like Fidel Castro did.

·???????Clearly the Nixon-Kissinger strategy of engaging the communist country in the hopes that it would become an open and free society has outrun its course. This was recognized by former President Trump and now by by Joe Biden

·???????Even Australia which was hugely dependent on trade with China has seen it fit to back off from the so-called Middle Kingdom.

?So, what happens in the future if hostilities between the United States and China escalate further? India is the key that Biden needs to enlist and firm up.

?American Allies in the Indo-Pacific

?Let’s look at America’s closest allies in the Indo-Pacific:

?·???????Japan is a large developed economy but has been largely demilitarized since 1945. It will take a long while before Japan alone can rival China as a defensive force.

·???????Korea is very much pro American but still depends on American support against a real threat from Pyongyang. Korea has a relatively small military and a modest defense budget.

·???????Australia has substantial American weaponry and the recent “AUKUS” deal will add nuclear attack submarines to its Navy. The military is just 30,000 personnel and Australia is somewhat distant from China.

Note that in 2023 there has been much top level involvement between India's Prime Minister and the leaders of Japan as well as of Australia. India is the belle of the ball as my middle school English teach Miss DeCunha would say.

?Dealing with Communist China

While American problems with China are relatively recent, India has a long history of trouble with modern China beginning in 1959 when the current Dalai Lima fled from Tibet into India and still lives in Dharamsala, India. In October 1962 the People’s Liberation Army invaded India for a short time. Numerous other border clashes have occurred periodically.?While much of American media portrays Pakistan as India’s enemy, Indian planners worry far more about possible threats posed by China in the long run.?There is much that the United States can learn from India’s experience in dealing with Chinese aggressions.

India has a million-man Army, a blue-water Navy and an Air Force that includes American C-130Js, C-17s, Apache helicopters and more.?American-made Poseidon aircraft patrol its borders and seas and General Electric jet engines power its home-grown Tejas fighter airplane. ?India leases General Atomics drones and may soon buy more armed versions.?Indian soldiers are trained in high altitude warfare. India has contributed more troops to United Nations defense missions than almost any other country.

The two countries conduct plenty of war games (“military exercises”) in different part of the world. India is a member of the Quad, the quadrilateral dialogue among Japan, USA, Australia and India whose stated purpose is ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.

So, looking at the future, any American President, any Foggy Bottom diplomat, any Pentagon strategist and any National Security Advisor needs to seek closer alignment with India. What better way to accelerate that relationship than by having the Indian Prime Minister be invited to the fanfare of a State Visit and another Joint Address to Congress?

While India won’t become a "treaty ally" like Japan or Germany, the two countries will continue to expand defense and strategic ties. ?And yes, while this will play well in 2024 when both countries will go to the polls, elections, voters and democracy are not the reason that India and the USA are coming together this week. Geopolitics is. It is that simple.

India also needs the United States. Only vigorous American support is likely to help India win permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. American ability to monitor hostile conversations became apparent after the November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai; the USA releases transcripts of the attackers conversation with their sponsors and identified where and when they left their ship to use small boats to make landfall.

Conclusion

As National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told the Hindustan Times a few hours ago, “India's military capabilities and its role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region contribute to regional stability. The United States recognizes India's potential as a security partner and has been engaging in defense cooperation, joint military exercises, and technology transfers. This collaboration strengthens the security architecture in the region and bolsters the United States' presence in the Indo-Pacific.”