India-US defence ties expected to deepen under Trump presidency

### India-US Defense Ties: What the Future Holds with Trump Back in Power

The United States is eyeing a massive opportunity in India's defense sector, particularly as India looks to modernize its armed forces over the next decade. With plans to spend $200 billion on defense upgrades, the US is keen to position itself as a key supplier, while also working to reduce India’s longstanding reliance on Russian-origin defense equipment.

According to a US Congressional Research Service document published on May 30, 2024, 62% of India’s defense imports have come from Russia since 2008, with France (11%), the US (10%), and Israel (7%) among other top suppliers. The US government has actively encouraged India to reduce its dependence on Russian defense imports.

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### US-India Defense Cooperation: What’s Next?

With the Trump administration potentially returning to power, there’s growing anticipation in defense circles that US-India defense ties could see a significant boost. Rajinder Singh Bhatia, President of the Society of Indian Defence Manufacturers, highlighted that the framework of Indus-X will offer new opportunities for co-design, co-development, and co-production between the two nations.

An industry insider shared that a Trump administration would go beyond President Biden’s approach to counter China, possibly leading to increased purchases of US defense products by India. This view is echoed by a defense expert within the Indian government, who believes that a Trump-led administration would move beyond Biden’s current strategy of a “small yard, high fence” policy — which limits critical technology transfer — and instead deepen US-India cooperation, especially on issues like China’s aggression.

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### Impact on Strategic and Defense Goals

The return of Donald Trump to the White House could significantly influence India’s defense strategy, particularly as the Quad alliance — an initiative that Trump strengthened during his first term — gains importance in the face of China's growing assertiveness.

Additionally, the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), a collaborative framework focused on enhancing technology cooperation, would likely gain momentum, benefiting India in the fields of defense technology and AI.

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### China, Border Talks, and India’s Strategic Position

A key consideration is how the India-China relationship will evolve. While India and China have made progress on disengagement along the LAC (Line of Actual Control) in Eastern Ladakh, ongoing border tensions remain a critical factor. India’s diplomatic and defense strategies will need to evolve in response to both the US-China rivalry and China’s regional assertiveness.

Some industry leaders suggest that Trump’s return could lead to a more robust strategic de-coupling from China, offering India new opportunities to strengthen its defense capabilities while reducing reliance on Chinese imports.

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### Geopolitical Shifts and Supply Chain Challenges

India’s defense sector is not just impacted by bilateral ties with the US but also by broader global trends. The Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the ongoing Taiwan crisis will all influence global defense markets. These events have created new challenges and opportunities in the supply chains that India’s defense industry relies on. A more stable West Asia and Europe, as hoped for under a Trump administration, could ease some of these supply-chain constraints.

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### A Cautious Optimism

While many are optimistic about the potential for strengthened India-US defense ties under Trump, caution is advised. As one senior government advisor noted, it’s important to wait for concrete statements from Trump regarding his administration’s stance on future defense relations with India.

The global political landscape has shifted since Trump’s first term, and how he would approach key issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in West Asia, and the ongoing Taiwan crisis remains uncertain.

Additionally, US domestic issues, including Trump's relationship with the "deep state" and how it impacts India-US relations on sensitive topics like the Khalistan movement, will also play a role in shaping the future of defense cooperation.

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### Looking Ahead: A New Era of India-US Defense Relations?

The good personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump further fuels expectations that defense ties between the two countries could deepen. As the US and India work to counter China and strengthen their strategic partnership, the next few years could be pivotal in defining India’s defense capabilities and its role in the global security landscape.

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What do you think?

Could a Trump-led US significantly reshape the future of India-US defense ties? How will these developments impact India’s strategic defense and global positioning? Let’s discuss in the comments below. ??

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