India re-invents Coffee

Disclaimer: This newsletter, Counterfactual Geopolitics, is not a prediction, just a mental exercise. It is my take on an internal CIA newsletter where the authors dig into hypotheticals to get their brains going on what might be possible if one domino falls a little differently. Any resemblance to actual coups, invasions, or geopolitical backstabbing is purely coincidental.

For decades, Colombian coffee was the undisputed jewel of the global market, prized for its smooth acidity and full-bodied flavor. But in 2010, a scientific breakthrough in an unlikely corner of the world upended that reality. In 2025, just 15 years later, Indian agronomists, working in secrecy, unveiled a lab-engineered coffee strain capable of thriving in India’s rural heartlands. The new coffee bean grew faster, required less water, and proved resistant to the very climate disruptions that had begun crippling Colombia’s industry.

Colombian coffee farmers had already been struggling with increasingly erratic weather patterns, prolonged droughts, and shifting precipitation cycles. The once-ideal conditions for Coffea arabica cultivation had deteriorated over the past two decades, leading to lower yields, higher production costs, and widespread farm abandonment. The introduction of the more resilient Indian strain only accelerated this decline, forcing many Colombian farmers to seek alternative means of survival.

The new Indian strain, dubbed Bharat Arabica, was the culmination of years of quiet research and genetic manipulation. Its key advantage lay in its resilience—unlike Colombia’s Coffea arabica, which was increasingly vulnerable to erratic rainfall, Bharat Arabica flourished under extreme conditions.

The vast fields of Bharat Arabica were largely hidden from public view in remote agricultural zones of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Research stations were deliberately set up in isolated rural areas to avoid commercial espionage, and only a handful of officials knew the exact locations. The strain thrived in the lateritic and black cotton soils of the Deccan Plateau, benefiting from monsoonal rains and well-drained highland conditions that provided a near-perfect growing environment. Shielded by a combination of government secrecy and private enterprise, these coffee plantations quietly flourished before their global debut in 2025.

With labor costs notably lower than in Latin America, due to government-sponsored automation and subsidies, Indian coffee flooded global markets at a fraction of the price of Colombian beans. Coffee conglomerates, eager to stabilize supply chains and stay relevant to the coffee market's whims pivoted sharply toward India. By mid-2026, Colombian coffee exports had collapsed by nearly 20%, sending an economic shockwave through rural farming communities dependent on the crop for survival.

At first, the Colombian government attempted to intervene. Subsidies were floated to stabilize the sector, and promotional campaigns sought to brand Colombian coffee as a premium alternative. But the damage was done. Entire swathes of coffee farms, which would otherwise become abandoned or unsustainable, turned to the only alternative that guaranteed income: coca.

Coca cultivation quickly became the far more viable option per hectare. While a hectare of coffee required years of cultivation, careful pruning, and ongoing investments in fertilizers and pest control, coca plants matured in just over a year and yielded 4-5 harvests per year. Additionally, coca farming required minimal infrastructure and was supported by established trafficking networks that offered immediate cash incentives. The lucrative nature of coca also meant that growers could afford armed protection, further solidifying the drug trade’s dominance over traditional agriculture. As a result, the economic disparity between coffee and coca widened dramatically, pushing more farmers toward illicit activities.

While Colombia’s peace accords had led to a relative decline in cocaine production in the late 2010s, the coffee crisis provided an opening for a new illicit boom. Former coffee farmers, facing bankruptcy, turned en masse to coca cultivation, feeding a growing network of traffickers desperate to capitalize on the instability.

And then came the FARC. Though the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) had largely demobilized after the 2016 peace agreement, a faction of hardliners had refused to disarm. For years, these dissidents had operated in the shadows, controlling isolated coca-growing regions. The coffee collapse provided the perfect moment for a full resurgence.

Within two years, FARC units reasserted dominance over the booming coca trade, establishing vast smuggling routes to export cocaine to the United States.

FARC re-armed and initially attempted to take control of established trafficking routes into neighboring countries. However, they quickly encountered fierce resistance from entrenched local cartels, which forced them to seek alternative smuggling pathways. This setback led them to innovate, turning to maritime routes and clandestine networks to expand their operations beyond traditional land corridors.

Unlike the old FARC, which once relied on Venezuelan and Brazilian conduits, this new iteration pioneered the use of semi-submersibles and small maritime vessels, ferrying narcotics up the Caribbean corridor with ruthless efficiency. By early 2029, FARC had become the single largest cocaine supplier to the U.S. East Coast, surpassing Mexican cartels in sheer volume, due in part to the increase border presence. FARC even began to open up limited operations to Europe, though to a much smaller degree.

The United States, alarmed by the surge in cocaine imports, ramped up naval patrols and anti-narcotics operations in the Caribbean, leading to violent clashes with FARC and associate cartel-linked paramilitary groups in Honduras and the Dominican Republic. Washington also pressured Bogotá to crack down on the resurgent FARC, sending military aid packages reminiscent of the early 2000s Plan Colombia. Yet, with rural farmers financially beholden to the cocaine trade, eradication efforts sparked fierce local resistance, fueling instability across the Andean region, even leading to changes in local elections, favoring the farmers and FARC politicians who were primarily pro-Marxist–Leninist.

The destabilization of Colombia and the resurgence of the cocaine trade provided China and Russia with an unexpected geopolitical opportunity. With U.S. military resources increasingly tied up in counternarcotics operations across the Caribbean and Latin America, Beijing and Moscow moved to expand their influence in the region. China, through economic investments and infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiative, began courting Colombian politicians willing to distance themselves from Washington. Meanwhile, Russia provided clandestine military aid to factions within the FARC, seeking to establish a proxy foothold in the Western Hemisphere. As Bogotá's reliance on U.S. assistance grew, China and Russia positioned themselves as alternative economic and military partners, further deepening their strategic reach in Latin America.

Meanwhile, India reaped the rewards of its agricultural revolution. By the end of 2030, Indian coffee had captured over 35% of the global market, with the European Union, the United States, and even traditional coffee-growing nations like Brazil sourcing massive imports. Indian firms, flush with cash, expanded their research into genetically enhanced agricultural products. India eyed the large rural and agrarian markets that could be disrupted. Other staple commodities, cocoa, tea, even certain grains, could be next in their disruptive crosshairs.

For Colombia, the crisis was existential. As the world’s coffee-drinking habits shifted eastward, the country’s fragile peace unraveled. Rural militias, once dormant, found new purpose in the coca trade, and Bogotá’s control over its hinterlands severely weakened.