India needs a new Infrastructure mantra: Build ahead of demand
As it moves to its first century in 2047, India stands at a crucial juncture in its development trajectory. Building robust transport and energy infrastructure over the next few years is pivotal for sustaining its economic growth, creating manufacturing hubs, generating new and good jobs, improving the quality of life for its citizens, and meeting its environmental commitments.
India manages one of the world’s largest infrastructure capex programs and has developed significant and leading edge technical and managerial capacity in project design and building. However, capacity creation has always lagged demand.
We see this play out again and again. Despite the building of new highways, average speeds remain low because roads are running to overcapacity right after launch. The Eastern and Westen peripheral expressway in NCR and other critical arteries like NH 44 are choked with cargo vehicles across all three lanes. There are consequential issues of road surface cracks, potholes, and degraded safety standards. The Ministry is now planning to cut down the choke points at toll barriers, and this should have been addressed much in advance.
Indian Railways is carrying record cargo volumes at 1.5 billion tonnes of originating traffic. The dedicated freight corridors are also filling up quickly. While there has been enhanced fund allocation from the general budget on new lines and upgradation, most routes are running much beyond line capacity. The system and its operators remain under stress, and railway safety has become an area of concern.
India has been relatively successful in port capacity in beating this trend, but the story of rising demand ahead of capacity creation is seen in the rapidly growing aviation market too.
The government has done well to look ahead and work to India @ 2047. The transport and energy sectors must respond to this call with a changed mindset, because business as usual will always keep supply short of demand. What does this changed mindset demand?
For a start, infrastructure sectors need zero-based planning to answer the commitments of 2047. The NITI Aayog estimates the GDP at US$ 30 trillion in 2047, therefore everything needs to scale by about 4 times, even if we consider that economies of scale will then answer a 6-fold growth in overall GDP. Zero-based planning for infrastructure must be executed in two phases; by 2035, supply equals demand, and scales beyond demand by 2045.
For the Railways, it means to stop all spending on any new passenger trains at less than 200 kmph, and scrap them at their end of life. It means to place all new orders for trains fit for 200 kmph, and for high-speed trains for corridors length of 10000 route km. National growth will also demand that IR targets average freight speeds of 75 kmph plus, with containerized cargo at 100 kmph plus. All this needs rolling stock, terminals, track and signaling upgrades. In effect, the National Railway Plan of 5 years ago is already outdated, and India needs to envision and execute afresh. PM Gati Shakti will also need to go beyond its existing version and upgrade to 3D possibilities with AI modeling to answer the demand of rapid infrastructure expansion. A similar vision is needed for roads, airports, ports, energy, and logistics sectors.
The government has done well to keep its foot on the accelerator of infra capex. That momentum needs scaling to an unflinching commitment to a new mantra: a rapidly growing and aspirational India can only be served by infrastructure supply that remains ahead of demand.