The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offer a compelling perspective.
Dr. KS Pillai
Uncommon Leader Transforming Aviation & Defense Manufacturing Ecosystem with Foresight & Mixed Reality Solutions | GTM Strategist - Saudi Arabia & India | GRC & Post-Merger Integration Expert | UN Award Recipient
Throughout history, government logistics infrastructure has primarily served the purpose of enabling the rapid deployment of defense capabilities. Notable instances include the development of the British built railway network in India and the European railway network. An examination of these objectives is necessary from geopolitical, economic, and defense perspectives.
Turning our attention to IMEEC, in contrast to the Chinese initiative, most of the required infrastructure is already in place. The only missing link is a 300-kilometre railway line connecting Saudi Arabia and Israel through Jordan, a project in which Saudi Arabia is prepared to invest. This project aims to extend the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rail network all the way to the Haifa seaport. The second part is the intermodal logistic systems, in which India and EU have considerable experience. ?
Geopolitical Considerations
Emerging India is striving to assert its global presence and position itself as a hub for high-tech manufacturing. Recognizing its inability to compete with ASEAN countries in low-tech manufacturing, India is actively seeking comprehensive engagement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These partnerships serve as a counterbalance to India's relationship with Pakistan.
In a similar vein, Saudi Arabia aspires to establish itself as the economic and political leader of the Islamic world, a position often contested by Turkey. Israel has cultivated strong diplomatic ties with India, and the United Arab Emirates, and is keen on enhancing its relationship with Saudi Arabia to safeguard its interests and counter the influence of Iran.
This scenario has two significant ramifications for Turkey and Egypt. The United States and Europe have grown increasingly cautious about Turkey's reliability as a partner, prompting them to explore alternative routes that avoid Turkish territory. The Suez Canal holds immense economic and political significance for Egypt. IMEEC is a crucial component of Saudi Arabia's strategy, and they wouldn’t mind even if it comes at the expense of Egypt and Turkey.
Of particular interest is whether Italy will opt for IMEEC over BRI. Such a move would solidify IMEEC's status as a global initiative and align it more closely with European interests. Greece alone does not provide the necessary market access to mainland Europe, especially to major EU economies.
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Economic Considerations
India requires strong partnerships to become an integral part of the global economic powerhouse, and IMEEC plays a pivotal role in this endeavour. It involves Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the European Union, collectively boasting a combined GDP of $25 trillion. India's need for efficient supply chain systems for its agricultural and industrial goods finds an effective solution in IMEEC.
While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have developed extensive railway networks, the absence of IMEEC would limit the utility of these networks due to their relatively small populations. IMEEC, therefore, must serve as a crucial feeder. India's emergence as an economic power aligns well with the interests of the EU and GCC states, as the Middle East can cater to the burgeoning energy demands while the EU seeks improved access to the Indian market.
The development of intermodal logistics systems could significantly boost economic growth, potentially contributing 4.2% to the Middle East, 7.1% to India, and 2.3% to the EU annually.
A Strategic Defense Angle
Another strategic aspect is defense cooperation between India, the Middle East, and the EU. All three parties require each other to counter the might of Russia and China. This cooperative approach could serve as the defense backbone, ensuring rapid deployment capability and acting as a deterrent against sudden and irrational actions by rogue nations. It holds the potential to provide lasting peace to both continents.
The Continued Relevance of China's BRI
China's BRI was founded on massive investments, reaching trillions of dollars, and strategically accessing markets in economically challenged nations such as Pakistan, Iran, and Kazakhstan. Initially, this approach favoured Chinese companies, as they secured contracts for infrastructure development, including labour, leading to debt traps for partner countries and public resentment against China. Despite doubts about the future of BRI, it is likely to persist and may even benefit from IMEEC, granting China access to the same infrastructure and the European market. Saudi Arabia is adopting a similar, more pluralistic diplomatic approach, akin to India's.