India & escape velocity

Finally collecting my thoughts after an energizing trip to #Delhi, after far too long an absence. I first traveled to #India and engaged with the government, and with the American business community there, nearly 15 years ago. Modi was still CM of Gujarat at the time. I made regular visits while in government but haven’t kept that cadence in the years since. After my recent visit – meeting with companies, government offices (GOI & USG), and attending the Raisina Dialogue Observer Research Foundation – I can’t help but feel excited about the next 5-10 years of India’s economic growth journey.

Here are a few observations.

• There is a palpable, rising energy and optimism about the country’s economic prospects, with a clear path to strengthen U.S.-India commercial ties and partnerships among our respective private sectors. PM Modi’s likely reelection for a third time, while not unanimously welcomed, certainly lays out a runway for economic and investment stability. Shout-out to US-India Strategic Partnership Forum , Vikram J. Singh and the tremendous work of the team who hosted an outstanding, thoughtful dinner, which reflected this positive sentiment. Former Ambo and current Dep Sec Richard Verma was back and doing his good work, as always; and Ambassador Eric Garcetti also is doing a wonderful job by all accounts.

• The capacity and responsiveness within the Indian government bureaucracy has dramatically improved over the years, at least in many of the pockets of government that are important to #FDI and innovation. We heard reports of strengthened collaboration with the USG on intellectual property protection; of rapid-response actions by senior officials within the Ministry of Commerce and Industry to clear investment roadblocks and quickly sort out customs matters when they inadvertently arose; and we saw, firsthand, the type of talent/human capital that was leaving the consulting or investment worlds to work on various teams at Invest India. (It reminded me of Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) ’s ability to draw outstanding talent into government.)
• #makeinindia?is, and will remain, a top priority – and companies are working to ensure they align their market strategies to help "co-develop and co-produce" with trusted partners. Many Indian and American companies are growing their R&D portfolios, moving the country beyond simply its manufacturing prowess. And the deep, high-skilled pool of talent in India will help MNCs fill in critical gaps in their global supply chains. But India needs to be careful – we’re now seeing the overcapacity issues arising from “Made in China 2025” (autos in Mexico and the EU, nickel processing in Indonesia, among many other examples). And my overall economic enthusiasm is not blind to India’s long history of protectionist and bureaucratic challenges – just witness their current, ongoing obstructionism at the WTO as one example. But, again, "industrial policy" is all the rage, right? The U.S. is certainly not immune.
• China looms large in nearly every discussion on geopolitics and economics; and “de-risking” is not just a term du jour in Washington, but also in Delhi and beyond. India, of course, is a beneficiary of "China-plus-one" supply chain strategies. But de-risking extends to the security realm, climate politics, etc. etc.
• There remains extraordinary work to do in strengthening health systems at the state level, in promoting programs and reforms that will expand #AyushmanBharat and provide greater access to basic services, and particular opportunity to invest in the digital health/health innovation sector. We at Crowell & Moring International intend to invest and participate in these efforts. Sejal Mistry Adrienne Mendenhall Geralyn Ritter Kate Beale
• Finally, India intends to strengthen its voice on the global stage, across a range of pressing matters that demand international leadership. From decarbonization and climate finance, to regional security cooperation and digital policy – it was made abundantly clear that India will act as the “voice for the Global South” in the global policy dialogue. At the #RaisinaDialogue, Mins. Jaishankar, Goyal, and their GOI colleagues brimmed with assertive confidence (a friend called it “swagger” – I’m sure others will have other choice descriptions for it). As now the largest country on earth, and with an economy on-track to be the world’s third-largest, they are right to be confident. The question, of course, is whether Modi and India can stay on the right course, continue with needed reforms and strengthen governance and institutions, in order to attract the FDI it needs. Can India reach ‘economic escape velocity,’ by throwing off some of the enduring shackles of its past?

It will be fascinating to watch. And even more fascinating to be a part of this growth. I look forward to being back.

Thanks to all of the friends, old and new, who met with us in Delhi. Just to mention a few....

Krishna Sarma Anirudh Rastogi Dr. Preet Deep Singh Jonathan Heimer Anubhuti Kaul Bhrany Jyotsna Ghoshal Mehnaz Ansari Gaurav Verma Nivedita Mehra Abhishek Sudke Genessa Giorgi