India Elections 2024: Phase 5

As voting began across 10 states and union territories (UT) on 20 May for Phase 5 of the India Elections 2024, we break down key disorder trends in the northernmost UTs of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir (J&K).

For Ladakh and J&K, this election serves as a referendum. People are voting for the first time since the BJP government repealed Article 370 in 2019, which stripped the erstwhile state of J&K of its semi-autonomous status and split it into two centrally-governed UTs.

In 2019, the BJP government assured that repealing Article 370 would end militancy and bolster development in J&K, and promised Ladakh inclusion in Sixth Schedule — a constitutional provision that would allow Ladakh to continue operating semi-autonomously.

Almost five years on, ACLED data show a declining trend in clashes between security forces and various militant and rebel groups in J&K. 2023 reported the lowest average number of yearly clashes since ACLED began covering India in 2016.

Despite this apparent success, people in J&K continue to face state repression: such as arbitrary arrests and harassment of journalists and activists, routine internet shutdowns, media blackouts, and a clampdown on protests.

Additionally, in Ladakh, the BJP did not follow through on its 2019 promise, leading to major discontent; widespread demands for the implementation of the Sixth Schedule and Ladakh statehood accounted for 71% of protests in Ladakh in 2024.?

Check out ACLED’s range of analyses on India and watch out for our upcoming report on violence between political parties, as part of ACLED’s Special Election Series on the India Elections 2024. https://acleddata.com/tag/india/