India on edge as mammoth election draws to a close

INDIA's six-week election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, but also in the "unprecedented" scale of online disinformation.

The biggest democratic exercise in history brought with it a surge of false social media posts and instant messaging, ranging from doctored videos to unrelated images with false captions.

The seventh phase of elections concluded on Saturday (1). Now, all eyes are in the results which will start coming from Tuesday (4) morning.

Here's a look at the key election developments this week:

Exit polls predict 'easy' third term for Modi

Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is projected to secure a significant majority in the general election, according to TV exit polls. These polls suggest the alliance will perform better than most analysts expected.

Most exit polls indicated that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could achieve a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, where 272 seats are needed for a simple majority.

This majority would enable the government to implement extensive constitutional amendments.

A summary of five major exit polls projected that the NDA could win between 353 and 401 seats, a result likely to boost financial markets when they reopen on Monday. In the 2019 general election, the NDA won 353 seats, with the BJP securing 303 of them.

Three of the five polls predicted that the BJP alone could win more than the 303 seats it secured in 2019.

The opposition "INDIA" alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi's Congress party, was projected to win between 125 and 182 seats.

Exit polls in India have a mixed record, often getting the outcome wrong due to the country's large and diverse population.

In his first comments after voting ended, Modi claimed victory without mentioning the exit polls.

"I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government," he said on X, without providing evidence.

"The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal and corrupt."

All eyes set on election results

The result will be out after the counting process is completed by the election commission of India on June 4, 2024.

If due to any unforeseen circumstances, the results are delayed, they will be released early morning of June 5.

Vote counting is decentralised and done simultaneously at counting stations in each of the 543 constituencies around the country.

Counting begins at 8 am (0230 GMT) on June 4 with the tallying of postal ballots that only select groups can use, including people with disabilities, or those involved in essential services including security forces and some government officials.

After paper ballots, votes recorded in the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) are counted, which India has used since 2000, moving away from paper ballots for national and state elections.

Along with the electronic record of each vote cast through the EVM, a corresponding paper slip is also produced, which is visible to the voter, and then stored in a sealed box.

The poll watchdog, the Election Commission of India (ECI), counts and verifies these paper slips against electronic votes at five randomly selected polling stations - drawn by lots - in different segments of each constituency.

While critics and some members of civil society, including some political parties, want verification to be done at more booths to increase transparency, the Supreme Court has declined to order any change in the vote-counting process.

The ECI has dismissed allegations that EVMs can be tampered, calling them foolproof.

642 million voted in general

A total of 642 million Indians voted in the just-concluded six-week-long polls, chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar told reporters on Monday (3).

"We have created a world record of 642 million Indian voters, it is a historic moment for all of us," Kumar said, adding that nearly half of those -- 312 million -- were women voters.

"It shows the incredible power of voters of India," he said.

"People should know about the strength of Indian democracy."

Based on the commission's figure of an electorate of 968 million, 66.3 percent of eligible voters turned out, slightly down on the last general election in 2019.

Kumar said that "642 million voters chose action over apathy, belief over cynicism and in some cases, the ballot over the bullet", the commission said, with the commissioner adding that there were "no major incidents of violence".

Voting in the seventh and final staggered round ended on Saturday (1).

Exit polls show Modi is well on track to triumph, with the premier saying he was confident that "the people of India have voted in record numbers" to re-elect his government.

India uses electronic voting machines that allow for faster counting of ballots.

"We have a robust counting process in place," Kumar said.

Exit polls are ‘Modi media’ fantasy, says Rahul Gandhi

A day after all major exit polls gave a clear majority to the BJP-led NDA for a third term, opposition leaders rejected the predictions outright. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi called it a “Modi media poll.”

“This is Modi ji’s poll, a fantasy poll,” Gandhi said, adding that the opposition bloc will get 295 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.

West Bengal chief minister Mamta Banerjee, whose party, the Trinamool Congress, is shown as getting fewer seats than the BJP in West Bengal, alleged that “the exit polls were prepared by the BJP two months ago.”

“These exit polls have been prepared by the BJP and then given to the media. I am clearly telling you that they have no value. They are fake,” Banerjee told a channel. Her party shared the statement on its official X handle.

She, however, neither endorsed the 295-figure provided by INDIA bloc leaders nor did she give a number for her party in West Bengal.

But in an unusual pushback to the exit polls, the Congress invited the media to an online interaction that the party’s communication chief, Jairam Ramesh, had with Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chiefs.

The PCC presidents shared their assessments of the polls in their respective States.

BJP Retains Arunachal Pradesh, SKM Sweeps Sikkim

The BJP on Sunday (2) returned to power in Arunachal Pradesh, while the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) secured a second term in Sikkim.

Voting was held for 60 assembly seats in Arunachal Pradesh and 32 assembly seats in Sikkim on April 19.

According to the Election Commission, the BJP returned to power in Arunachal Pradesh for the third time in a row after winning 46 seats. Results were declared on Sunday for 50 of the 60 assembly seats as the ruling party had already won ten seats unopposed. Chief Minister Pema Khandu was one of the ten party candidates who won unopposed earlier.

The National People's Party (NPP) won five seats, while the People's Party of Arunachal got two seats and the NCP secured three. The Congress could manage only one seat, and Independent candidates emerged victorious in three constituencies.

In Sikkim, the SKM led by chief minister Prem Singh Tamang won 31 seats, while the SDF won one seat.

Quote of the week

"I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government," said Narendra Modi

For more new updates visit our website

EasternEye is Britain's best known and most respected Asian weekly newspaper with national coverage.