Will India be into a Civil War in 2050?

Let me tell you, I am not a pessimist. But, I am also searching for reasons whether I should consider myself as a cautious optimist person. We know that civil war results from a great economic divide in the society, unjust taxation system and favoring a particular group based on their color/ethnicity/race. Civil wars result in two groups: oppressors, and suppressors. In the past, the oppressors were identified based on the color of their skin and the resources they owned. While this holds true in the case of the American civil war, the same can't be said with full confidence in case of the rest of the world.

Early civil wars were particularly characterized by a divide between capitalists and labor. However, later it got colored by the ethnic divide in religion. A quick look at the Middle East would tell the story. When the social unrest takes a shape of collective bargaining sans regard to the law of the land, the society is pushed into a civil war. A good example would be Venezuela.

I was forced to think on these lines for my motherland India. There are reasons behind it. Yesterday I read two news which fired the neurons in my brain. Not sure, whether I used the correct term. One of the news was about the ?1.0 trillion write-offs by India's largest bank, SBI. In the last five years, the bank's total write-offs were more than ?1.6 trillion ($14.2 billion at an exchange rate of ?70/$), at the same time, recoveries which included amounts from written-off accounts were at ?96,920 crore. These figures are book entries which don't factor in the time value of money.

Till recently I heard that Indian Banking System is one of the strongest in the world. However, this myth got shattered when I watched in disdain the fall of India's largest private sector bank, ICICI's ex-CEO Chanda Kocher in the Videocon group lending case. A belief that private hands manage money better than the government was severely shaken. There are many like me in India, who still believe that Government has virtually no role in owning and managing business except those involving critical elements of national security.

Here, I quoted an example of the biggest bank in India. Imagine what would be the state of affairs of the other nationalized banks, private banks, co-operative banks, credit societies and not to talk of the Non-banking Finance Companies (NBFCs.) And yes, I am completely mute on loan waivers to farmers. Today's India is clearly divided between one group blatantly justifying loan waivers to farmers believing that the likes of Mallya, Modi, Choksey, and Sandesara were deliberately left scot-free.

The second news was from the headline of yesterday's on-line Economic Times. The Chinese media felt that Indians aren't working hard enough to match the pace with China's economic growth. This fired the second neuron in my brain. When I went through the comment section below there, due to the Indo-China war in 1965, many Indians still have that hateful perception towards the dragon country. However, we need to look at things from a different perspective.

A sizable chunk of the Indian society (my estimate 30%-35%) haven't still come out of the mindset that they were oppressed for thousands of years due to the varnashram system in Hinduism. This presents a classic case for keeping alive the past wounds to stay relevant in present-day politics. Three generations of SC/ST/OBCs who have reaped the benefits of the reservation system in the last 70 years aren't comfortable to renounce it/pass it over to the current poor/deprived of their community. This issue hasn't been addressed either by the intellectuals from these communities nor the political parties in India. Majority of Indian society's perception towards a Government job as a secured, non-performance oriented cushion hasn't changed a bit. This can be witnessed when we read the news where Ph.D. candidates are applying for a peon's job in the state/central government departments.

I fail to understand why only my country India should be under severe obligation to correct the mistakes in the past in the ENTIRE WORLD??? A society can't progress with the idea of 'freebees over merit' for a long time. The dissent was displayed in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Interestingly, Indian tax-payers are becoming more and more aware. Their percentage in the number of voters who actually voted has gone up steadily over the last few years, especially after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. There are people who think India is getting divided into religious lines. TIMES magazine characterized the present PM as the greatest divider. Not sure whether this is true. What I see is the divide of the Indian populace on the political party lines. Going forward, I am Congress/ I am BJP kinda thoughts will get louder over I am Hindu/ I am Muslim voices. Thanks to social media.

No political party has talked of curbing population which is growing at a rapid pace in the economically weaker sections of the society, in turn putting a burden on taxpayers. Over the coming years, total taxpayers may decline instead of growing up due to machines taking over human jobs and wrong policies of the Governments to generate jobs. India is virtually sitting on a time bomb. Stock market growth may turn into job-less growth if cost-cutting exercises to boost the bottom line by Indian Corporates expedite in the coming years. In 2017, India's population was 133.92 crores against 138.64 crores that of China, according to the World Bank and US Census Bureau. Now, imagine what would this mean to the second largest headcount on the earth which hasn't done enough to boost manufacturing and drive domestic consumption.

At present India is witnessing one phenomenon which is unified thinking of the common man who speaks English and pays taxes. This group, like never before has started to raise its voice through the ballot. Henceforth, no Government whether central or state would be able to push their populist, minority appeasing agenda in a hassle-free way. People are more awakened now. The dissent will start to come from the educated class in the coming times who will not hesitate to pour in large numbers on the streets, to protest the populist measures which worked in the past. In the future, the possibility of protests and galvanizing public opinion against unjust government policies via social media can't be ruled out as it happened in the 2011 Arab Spring.

In the last five years, we saw severe non-cooperation from some of the non-Central Government ruled states such as Andhra and West Bengal. They even went to the extent of disallowing entry of Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), a central government monitored body into their respective states. This marks the beginning of a systemic failure triggered by I am BJP/ I am not BJP thoughts. This didn't happen in the past. This daring displayed by constitutionally elected Cheif Ministers whose parties aren't governing at the Center provides a perfect recipe to the probable collapse of the centralized administration of India. What was far more unfortunate was the manner in which this news was communicated by the Indian media to the Indian public, Media close to the present opposition put it as if it is the solid achievement of these states. It was like they taught a lesson to the Central Government.

Currently, India is a classic case of organized chaos. The BJP exhausted all its energy proving how dynastic politics at the center ruined the country without giving regards to dynasties set up by its own politicians at state levels. People are fed up with dynasties whether at central or state levels. Both BJP and the Congress aren't realizing it. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has done relatively better in Delhi on the education front is a ray of hope. While Congress has been far more secular when it comes to eating the confectioneries of corruption, the BJP seems to stick to preferential Hindu roots doing the same while showcasing some development work.

Politicizing religion and religionizing politics has become an order of the day in India. "Humne yaha pe 750 saal raaj kiya" (we ruled here (India) for 750 years) thoughts have been taken over by threats to chant Vande Mataram. Ayodhya Ram Mandir, Kashi Vishwanath corridor, Sabarimala verdict and banning Tripple Talaaq issues have created a negative feeling about Indian Judiciary in layman's mind. I stay in Central India. The Nagpur Municipal Corporation made the participants chant Hanuman Chalisa at an AIDS Awareness drive in 2016. The entire event was funded by NMC. wtf. What was the purpose? Religion has entered into politics and unfortunately, it indicated a willingness to stay there. Nobody is bothered.

To conclude, I feel India is slowly getting dragged in a civil war like situation. The pace is very very slow at present but, it is just a matter of time. To put it in a simple form, it took millions of years for the rocks to get converted into the soil, it may take a few more years to realize the overall societal failure. Not to be pessimistic, but India is fast losing to China in the Artifical Intelligence (AI) battle. It is utterly idiotic to thump chest in India's scheduled progress in the skies. The scoundrels (politicians) are absolutely clueless as to how they will handle the seething anger of the vast educated but unemployed youth in the years to come.

Hopeless expectations of miracles from RBI rate cuts, debacle of the Make in India initiative, unemployment at its 45-years highest level, slow slipping of the global economy into recession, faulty legal system which delivers justice after innocent's death and unable to punish the guilty during his lifetime coupled with the slow shift of the Indian society from a collective-conscious to an individual-conscious paints not-so-promising picture of citizens' future. 2050 is just a number.