INDIA- CHINA AND RUSSIAN FAR EAST

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day Russia visit that concluded today came as business as usual to most of us. After all, this was his 55th foreign visit and fourth one to Russia as the Prime Minister. Yet this Russia visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was different. Secret lies in details.

This was the first instance of an Indian Prime Minister attending the East Economic Forum. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the Chief Guest of the Eastern Economic Forum. The forum aims at bringing investment and development to what is known as the Russian Far East, a region extending between Lake Baikal - world's largest freshwater lake and deepest lake, and the Pacific Ocean.  Russian Far East is a huge land mass which is rich in resources but is sparsely populated and underdeveloped. This is a region situated in the cold Siberian climate but more significantly, it shares borders with China, Mongolia, North Korea and Japan (maritime). On its own, it could be the eight largest - just behind India - in terms of area, and fourth least densely populated country. Both China and the US have been competing to have an upper hand in this region.

 With the centre of gravity of global economics shifting to Asia, Putin is keen on focusing on the Far East and develop it with the help pf Asian powers. So far Chinese dominance in Russian Far East has been palpable. It is in this context Putin’s attempt to diversify assumes importance to lessen Russia’s growing dependence on China. Indian investors will also find much of value as they look at Russian Far East and explore investment opportunities there. Realising its geostrategic significance, India opened a consulate in Vladivostok in 1992. India was the first country to have a Resident Consulate in Vladivostok then.

Russian Far East is a resource rich region in a hostile climate. It is rich in oil, natural gas, timber, gold and diamond among other resources. India requires all of them. A busy Vladivostok-Chennai link means India strengthening its checks and balances equation with China.

"We are starting a new era of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region," Prime Minister Modi declared before Russian President Vladmir Putin hugged him on completion of his speech. In his speech, Prime Minister Modi said the Far East will become the bedrock of a strong Indo-Russia ties based on the principles of "rules-based order, sovereignty, respect for territorial integrity and is against engaging in the internal matters of other countries". China has been aggressively pushing to expand its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

 Modi’s visit has resulted in a proposal for a maritime route between Chennai and Vladivostok, bypassing Europe, which would enable to transfer cargo between Chennai and Vladivostok in 24 days in comparison to over 40 days currently taken to transport goods from India to Far East Russia via Europe. This Vladivostok-Chennai sea link is somewhat a counter to China's Maritime Silk Route (MSR) plan as part of One Belt One Road project. China's ambitious Maritime Silk Route plan is about establishing and hence directly controlling Asia-Africa sea route.

Vladivostok-Chennai shipping link is likely to pass through or very close to the South China Sea, which China has turned into an international geostrategic hotspot by claiming exclusive control over the resource rich maritime zone in the Pacific Ocean. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims over the sea.

There is an alternate possibility as well that Vladivostok-Chennai link would become an extension of existing India-Japan Pacific to Indian Ocean Corridor, which China considers as a challenge to its maritime OBOR plan in the region.

PM Modi announced a credit line of $1 billion for the development of this region. “In order to continue and help develop the Far East, India will provide a $1 billion credit line. This is a completely unprecedented measure when we provide such a special credit line to another country,” Modi said during his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok. The announcement of $1 billion line of credit is not really an investment by India but it still offers it to have a foothold in the Russian Far East. Seen from geostrategic lens, this gives India another vantage point to counter Chinese game of encircling India through what is called the String of Pearls policy.

Last month, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal led a delegation to Vladivostok that included Chief Ministers of these States and representatives from about 140 companies.

Current engagement of India with this region is limited to select pockets such as Irkutsk where the MiG and Sukhoi fighter planes are built and in Sakhalin where ONGC Videsh has invested over $ 6 billion in oil and gas and exploration. The maiden visit by an Indian prime minister to Vladivostok is set to strengthen India's position in Asia-Pacific that has emerged as the kernel of future geo-strategy.

Prime Minister Modi wants India and Russia to take advantage of the low production cost in India to produce military equipment under joint venture framework at cheaper rates for the third-world nations. This will have to be the future of India-Russia defence engagement for them to become sustainable. There are also reports of a possible military logistics support agreement, the Agreement on Reciprocal Logistics Support (ARLS), aimed at facilitating access to each other’s’ military facilities.

Despite concerns in India about growing closeness between Russia and Pakistan, Moscow stood by India on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, arguing that “India’s decision [on Jammu and Kashmir] is a sovereign decision which is as per its Constitution” and that “Moscow follows a policy of non-interference in domestic affairs of countries.” After initially ignoring India, Russia also made a course correction on Afghanistan, recognising that India’s involvement in Afghanistan remains necessary if the war-torn nation is to see long term stability.

India by investing would be contesting China in Russian Far East for resources which are getting scarce. India can also help Russia by providing technical manpower to augment their scare resources to speed up the development.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day Russia visit that concluded today came as business as usual to most of us. After all, this was his 55th foreign visit and fourth one to Russia as the Prime Minister. Yet this Russia visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was different. Secret lies in details.

This was the first instance of an Indian Prime Minister attending the East Economic Forum. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the Chief Guest of the Eastern Economic Forum. The forum aims at bringing investment and development to what is known as the Russian Far East, a region extending between Lake Baikal - world's largest freshwater lake and deepest lake, and the Pacific Ocean.  Russian Far East is a huge land mass which is rich in resources but is sparsely populated and underdeveloped. This is a region situated in the cold Siberian climate but more significantly, it shares borders with China, Mongolia, North Korea and Japan (maritime). On its own, it could be the eight largest - just behind India - in terms of area, and fourth least densely populated country. Both China and the US have been competing to have an upper hand in this region.

 With the centre of gravity of global economics shifting to Asia, Putin is keen on focusing on the Far East and develop it with the help pf Asian powers. So far Chinese dominance in Russian Far East has been palpable. It is in this context Putin’s attempt to diversify assumes importance to lessen Russia’s growing dependence on China. Indian investors will also find much of value as they look at Russian Far East and explore investment opportunities there. Realising its geostrategic significance, India opened a consulate in Vladivostok in 1992. India was the first country to have a Resident Consulate in Vladivostok then.

Russian Far East is a resource rich region in a hostile climate. It is rich in oil, natural gas, timber, gold and diamond among other resources. India requires all of them. A busy Vladivostok-Chennai link means India strengthening its checks and balances equation with China.

"We are starting a new era of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region," Prime Minister Modi declared before Russian President Vladmir Putin hugged him on completion of his speech. In his speech, Prime Minister Modi said the Far East will become the bedrock of a strong Indo-Russia ties based on the principles of "rules-based order, sovereignty, respect for territorial integrity and is against engaging in the internal matters of other countries". China has been aggressively pushing to expand its military presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

  Modi’s visit has resulted in a proposal for a maritime route between Chennai and Vladivostok, bypassing Europe, which would enable to transfer cargo between Chennai and Vladivostok in 24 days in comparison to over 40 days currently taken to transport goods from India to Far East Russia via Europe. This Vladivostok-Chennai sea link is somewhat a counter to China's Maritime Silk Route (MSR) plan as part of One Belt One Road project. China's ambitious Maritime Silk Route plan is about establishing and hence directly controlling Asia-Africa sea route.

Vladivostok-Chennai shipping link is likely to pass through or very close to the South China Sea, which China has turned into an international geostrategic hotspot by claiming exclusive control over the resource rich maritime zone in the Pacific Ocean. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have counter claims over the sea.

There is an alternate possibility as well that Vladivostok-Chennai link would become an extension of existing India-Japan Pacific to Indian Ocean Corridor, which China considers as a challenge to its maritime OBOR plan in the region.

PM Modi announced a credit line of $1 billion for the development of this region. “In order to continue and help develop the Far East, India will provide a $1 billion credit line. This is a completely unprecedented measure when we provide such a special credit line to another country,” Modi said during his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok. The announcement of $1 billion line of credit is not really an investment by India but it still offers it to have a foothold in the Russian Far East. Seen from geostrategic lens, this gives India another vantage point to counter Chinese game of encircling India through what is called the String of Pearls policy.

Last month, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal led a delegation to Vladivostok that included Chief Ministers of these States and representatives from about 140 companies.

Current engagement of India with this region is limited to select pockets such as Irkutsk where the MiG and Sukhoi fighter planes are built and in Sakhalin where ONGC Videsh has invested over $ 6 billion in oil and gas and exploration. The maiden visit by an Indian prime minister to Vladivostok is set to strengthen India's position in Asia-Pacific that has emerged as the kernel of future geo-strategy.

Prime Minister Modi wants India and Russia to take advantage of the low production cost in India to produce military equipment under joint venture framework at cheaper rates for the third-world nations. This will have to be the future of India-Russia defence engagement for them to become sustainable. There are also reports of a possible military logistics support agreement, the Agreement on Reciprocal Logistics Support (ARLS), aimed at facilitating access to each other’s’ military facilities.

Despite concerns in India about growing closeness between Russia and Pakistan, Moscow stood by India on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, arguing that “India’s decision [on Jammu and Kashmir] is a sovereign decision which is as per its Constitution” and that “Moscow follows a policy of non-interference in domestic affairs of countries.” After initially ignoring India, Russia also made a course correction on Afghanistan, recognising that India’s involvement in Afghanistan remains necessary if the war-torn nation is to see long term stability.

India by investing would be contesting China in Russian Far East for resources which are getting scarce. India can also help Russia by providing technical manpower to augment their scare resources to speed up the development.