Index Insights : KEEV

“The best way to measure your investing success is not by whether you’re beating the market but by whether you’ve put in place a financial plan and a behavioral discipline that are likely to get you where you want to go.”

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? - Benjamin Graham

Key highlights of the week:

• The markets?after a bearish momentum has?seen some long awaited consolidation.
• Larsen and Toubro won the contract for an underground road project worth Rs 7000 crores.
• AIR India Completes Acquisition of First A350-900 Aircraft.
• India's External Debt now stands at $629.1 billion.

FinNifty Analysis for 3rd Oct Expiry

The chart above shows a good upward momentum from near 19650 levels then a swift reversal from 20500-20600 levels, the OI data given shows highest Put OI at 19800 levels, meaning the put option writers are not expecting FinNifty to close below 19800. A clear chart trend is visible, showing a bearish sentiment supported by the OI data (19900 and 20000 strong call OI presence). FinNifty OI data shows a big range of 19800-20000?(Max Put OI and Call OI), which may not be broken this expiry if the spot moves within the range mentioned. The index has also confirmed an important resistance near 19900, if maintained then can see a short reversal from these levels. It is important to note that the Call and Put sellers don't have a similar OI structure, the call sellers are a bit more active,?indicating a bearish expiry if these levels are breached.

BankNifty Analysis for 4th Oct Expiry

The chart above, when compared to FinNifty, again exhibits a similar structure of consolidation after a bearish trend. Also, it does confirm the presence of an important support near 44150-44250 levels.?Notably, 44500 shows high Put OI?as seen in the open interest chart and 45000 has the highest Call?OI. The OI range is currently small, (44500-45000) indicating less volatility expected.?The?45000 Calls saw a significant increase in the last couple of hours. Additionally, on chart it can be seen that the short term trend is bearish?and if maintained can run through the important level?mentioned above and continue a new trend.

Nifty Analysis for 5th Oct Expiry

The chart above shows a good upward momentum from near 19500 levels then a swift reversal from 20200 levels, the OI data given shows highest Put OI at 19600 levels, meaning the put option writers are not expecting Nifty to close below 19600. A clear chart trend is visible, showing a bearish sentiment supported by the OI data (19700 and 19800 strong call OI presence). Nifty OI data shows a short range of 19600-19800?(Max Put OI and Call OI), which may not be broken this expiry if the spot moves within the range mentioned. The index has also confirmed an important resistance near 19750, if maintained then can see a short reversal from these levels. It is important to note that the Call and Put sellers don't have a similar OI structure, the call sellers are a bit more active,?indicating a bearish expiry if these levels are breached.

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Analysis provided by:

Rutveek Shah, CFTe

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Based on the provided information, traders can leverage these findings to optimize their approach towards trading this expiry on KEEV.