INDEPENDENT'S DAY - the party is over for the media managers.

Results of recent elections confirm what the Biden administration has been saying in their fund raising effort- “VOTERS VOTE, POLLS DON'T!”

In Qld the Labor mob got smashed. In SA the Libs lost a seat. In Tassie they are still counting and it may take weeks to know who will be the next Premier and Jaquie Lambie will be the critical voice of independence.

Pollsters are yet to admit that their predictions are managed in the light of increasing refusal of households to either bother to answer questions based on party allegiance - or simply feed the polls with porky pies.

While the Liberals are projected to win the greatest number of seats after Saturday’s election, both the Liberals and Labor have failed to form a majority government – with the Liberals suffering a 12 swing per cent against it. After Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff hailed the result as a “victory”, he told reporters in Hobart that voters had sent a clear message in the swing towards minor parties and independents.

The truth is that people are shifting into the Independent, No Opinion, or ABT. column (Anyone But Them") , especially when the pollsters allocate "don't know" and "undecided" to last year's trashbin. Until we get an academically conducted , genuine Gallup style poll, that does as Roy Morgan used to do, actually visit the homes of every electorate, we will have to wait till all the votes are counted.

So, lets have a look at the American rematch of the ages where two deeply unpopular candidates (both Biden and Trump have favourability ratings at around 40%) are now facing the entry of a Kennedy to offer an independent third horse in the race to the White House.

Since announcing his campaign in April, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has criticised both parties, claiming their leaders are corrupt and, in what has become depressingly familiar rhetoric, accusing the Democratic National Committee of “rigging” the primary election by declining to host debates and making changes to the election calendar.

While his candidacy is widely viewed as a long shot, his polling figures are historically high for a third-party candidate, and he could siphon votes from both party’s nominees.

14%. That’s the share of voters who say they would back Kennedy Jr. in a hypothetical general election matchup with former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll that found Biden had support of 31% of voters and Trump received 35%. While some media managed surveys show Kennedy Jr.’s net favourability rating is higher among Republicans than Democrats, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found his third-party bid could hurt Biden more—without him on the ballot, both Trump and Biden received 35% of support.

If you believe the polls, that race is also over, with Biden just too old to make it up the stairs, in a series of daunting polls showing President Biden losing to former President Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

Nobody has any reason to believe any of the media megaphones that either polarise the contest to flog their copy, or tell their audience what their owners want them to do when they claim to be undecided.

Biden told Fox News reporter Peter Doocy “you don’t read the polls” when asked why he thought the results show him losing to Trump in five of six battleground states.

It’s unclear which polls Biden is referring to — RealClearPolitics’ track of 10 reputable national polls, including the CNN survey and others by YouGov, CBS, Quinnipiac University, Emerson College and more, show the numbers are in direct contrast with Biden’s assessment: he’s either losing or tied with Trump in eight of the 10.

Registered Independents, meanwhile, have continued to rise, tying a high of 43% last year, according to the Gallup telephone survey, with over 41% of adults identified as independent in 2022,and 42% in 2021.

As reported in this column last week, Political scientist Kate Crowley was on the money saying that Tasmania is likely heading for another hung parliament. "Looking at the polls, if you trust them of course, we're heading for a minority government. The polling is showing 42 per cent for minor parties and independents."