Independent Schools Demographic Data and Local Education Statistics

Independent Schools Demographic Data and Local Education Statistics

By Peter Buckingham BSc GradDip MktMdl CFE FIMC CMC at Spectrum Analysis

Whether you are the Marketing Manager, Business Manager, the Head of Admissions or Enrolments, Chief Operating Officer (COO) or the Principal, Headmaster or Headmistress, understanding the demographics of your students, (current and future) should be very important.

Many multi-million dollar decisions are made by the Board of the school, and they would expect, under good due diligence, that these future decisions should be based on facts, data and education statistics.

Many Independent Schools around Australia are having a prosperous time in what has been a steady economic environment since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Many schools are full, with a good future enrolment list, giving a good deal of confidence.

Irrespective of the current outlook, schools still need to be as efficient as they can be, and they need to be making quality, well informed decisions for their long term future.

Factually based decisions for schools….. not just your wet finger in the air to tell you which direction the wind is coming from.

Many schools are asset rich, with land now worth a fortune, especially in the inner city areas of Melbourne and Sydney. Strong enrolments and the market accepting regular fee increases have allowed many schools to invest in their assets, which benefits all concerned.

So how is the next round of investment and marketing decisions to be made by you and the school board?

Understanding your school’s environment

The first thing I believe schools need to understand is where are the students coming from, and how can we understand this in demographic terms.

If we know where the students are coming from, and know of areas that offer many potential students for the future, what steps can we make to be sure we attract them to our school?

We can map the students addresses and understand this in terms of demographics (family income, age profiles, ethnicity etc), and we can also clearly understand what is our market share in any area - our number of students compared to the total number available in a specific area.

The Census of Population and Housing is the most accurate picture of the population we have in Australia. It is completed every five years at a cost of around $430M.

The Census breaks Australia down into around 53,000 SA1 areas, each having a population of between roughly 400 and 800 persons. The Census asks the following questions that give us a really accurate base of what students come from each SA1:

? Age and sex of child?

? Is the child in Primary or Secondary School?

? Is the child attending:

• Government Schooling
• Catholic Education
• Non-Government Education (Independent Schools)

From this information, for every SA1, we can tell how many boys and girls are going to Primary or Secondary school, and if they are in the Government, Catholic or Independent Education system.

If we plot the student addresses, we can show a very accurate “market share” of how your school is performing in any area (SA1, suburb or postcode), and where your Market Area is for your school, and what other areas should be considered to market into (for potential future students).

Schools are like comets

The immediate area around a good Independent School (think head of the comet) can have upwards of 50% market share, as living close to the school is seen by the parents as a major advantage in many cases. Travel time and simple convenience is an advantage every school has over there competition in your immediate area.

When we map this and look at the market share, schools tend to act like a comet, with the main campus location generally near the head of the comet, and the tail pointing away from the Central Business District of the city you are in.

We have always put this down to transport logistics, and people being able to drop their children off on the way to work. It can also be partly due to many of the best private schools are located in the highest economic areas, and people will always be willing to come in from the suburbs further out to attend those schools.

Identifying other potential marketing areas

If you know the types of areas you are very strong in, you may look for similar areas to attract new students. There may be a new developing area with strong demographics that you can access via a bus run quite easily, and you are still the closest major Independent or Catholic college to that area.

Do you consider establishing the bus run while there are already a small group of potential students, with the aim to becoming a dominant player in that market?

If you do analyse the surrounding areas, you may find some small adjustment to existing bus runs could place you strongly into that market initially.

Feeder schools also play a big part in that transition from Primary to Secondary school. If you have data on what are the main feeder schools for your campuses, and you can see how the numbers are changing, you may find some action is necessary.

We like to map all the feeder schools for a campus, and understand this data in terms of demographics, and the other schools around that are competing for ideal future students.

Knowing where the growth is?

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provide future population data predictions for 5, 10 and 15 years, and there is also a dataset telling us exactly how many building permits have been issued in any SA1 in Australia.

If you combine the ABS population forecasts, and back that up with the building permit data, you create a very good picture of the future population outlook. If you know an area is growing rapidly, and you have a fair idea of the socio economics of the surrounding suburbs, you can take a strategic long term view on what can become a major new market for you.

School bus runs

Whilst I mentioned bus runs before, it is only when you see the students mapped out and the bus runs used, that you can start to see how you can best maximize them.

One school we worked with had a bus run that had been going for many years, and when looked at, it was found the first student did not board the bus until the 2nd stop. For some years, the bus had been doing the first three kilometres without anyone on board, and no one had thought to mention it!

The cost per kilometre would have been quite large, and the bus company happy to enjoy the windfall.

Often by just re-routing the bus slightly, you may improve the usage, as newer students may not come from exactly where the past students came from. One client re directed a bus down another major road, running parallel and about 1 km away, and picked up about 6 more students.

In another case we recommended the school put a bus on just to run the students from the campus to a railway station on a parallel rail line a couple of kilometres from the school and then the students all along this rail line could become potential students quite easily.

SES scores and your funding

The Federal Government has not updated the data used for SES scores since the 2011 Census. If your SES score is no longer representative of the students, you could be missing out on significant funding.

One Project we did for a school eventuated in them receiving just under $100K in additional funding, because they were able to show the SES score had lowered based on their current students, and the socio economics of the areas. 

Once you map the students, you can work out the current score, and see how that compares to how you current funding is assessed, and put forward a logical argument if you feel it is warranted.

Strategic decisions for the future

Schools make very large investments and need to understand the cost benefits. The types of questions we have been asked to address have included issues:

• surrounding possible school mergers
• around potential second campuses
• around whether a school should have 1 or 2 ESL classes
• aroung what years a school’s feeder school should run to before bringing all the students to the main campus.

These decisions are critical to the long term direction of a school, and should NOT be made on feelings and innuendos, when a demographic analysis project will answer all these types of questions based on the facts and data.

Peter Buckingham is the Managing Director of Spectrum Analysis, a Melbourne based consultancy in demographics, mapping and analysis. Spectrum Analysis works with many schools both large and small from all sectors, but particularly Independent Schools, and have all the GIS tools to undertake this work. Peter is both a CMC (Certified Management Consultant) and a Fellow of the Institute of Management Consultants (FIMC). Peter can be contacted by email at [email protected] or called on +61 3 9830 0077.

More information

If you have any thoughts to share, feel free to leave your comment below or send me an email at [email protected] if you would like more quality facts and data.

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