An independent (financial adviser’s) view

For a brief couple of days, those holidaying in Cornwall could gloat at those who’d braved/endured airports to get to the sun. And then, despite the returning rain, the Global IT Outage extended the gloat. Apparently, arrivals and departures had to be posted on whiteboards, not far short of the fully retro blackboards used at Croydon airport in the 1930s. My views on it all in the vid below, in summary, too much globalism; but that’s an argument for a whole book. Anyway, a new even-at-my-age experience coming up, my first Stadium Gig, as I’m heading down Thunder Road to Wembley. Report and review next week, if I’m out of the car park by then.

“Falling UK wage growth boosts chances of August rate cut”

Silver linings and all that. Growth in wages is slowing, (some) inflation is down, which means interest rates are more than likely, I’d say, to come down a bit next month. Long-term, most predictors think they’ll get to and stay around 3.5%, quite a reduction from the current 5.25%. So you’ll get around 2% in the average savings account, and pay 5% for the average mortgage. Much more real-world than the super-low rates we had for so many years, which actually made the rich richer and the average hard-working family poorer. The over-the-pond situation will have a larger effect on your investments, and the interest rate direction is down there, too, which will boost markets. As will some certainty, one way or another, about who’ll be president. Both Trump and Biden would say they’re good for business, albeit in differing ways, so the consensus seems to be, worry about other stuff and not necessarily your money,??whoever gets in. And we know who that’s likely to be atm.

“Home Reit set to wind down in face of debts and FCA investigation”

Housing, particularly social housing, is a hot topic, a focus of the King’s Speech and a flagship new government policy. Here’s some collateral damage they’ll need to factor in, of the privatise/sub it out/get it off the books culture of recent years. This is an investment fund which has been leasing more than 10,000 beds across 135 local authorities to charities to provide accommodation for homeless people. Surprise, surprise, it’s not a money-earner, the fund can’t pay back the banks which lent the money to buy, build and renovate the properties and regulation arrives too late to save it. They’ll have to find buyers, I would guess, for many a property which few will consider a great investment with their present tenants and, quite likely, in their present state. Capitalism vs poverty? That’s a whole other discussion and/or book.

“New pensions minister: key priorities for Emma Reynolds”

Of all the various varieties of pension, the State one alone has?remained unchanged; in principle, that is. When it was introduced in 1909, the minimum age was 70 (and 95% of the population didn’t make it that far), and you’d be means-tested to get your five bob a week. The minimum age is heading back towards 70, and should be 82 for parity. As for the rest: final salary pensions, dating back to Victorian railway companies, gone; retirement annuities, gone; executive pensions, gone; stakeholder pensions; gone; the inclination of most of the population to save without compulsion, never really been there. And the reason for the demise of pensions? Government tinkering and tax raids. So, as has oft been said, what we need is continuity and some settled thinking, please, Ms Reynolds MP. What are we likely to get? Sadly, I suspect, more tinkering and taxing. But what do I know?

“‘Hybrid working is a must-have in today’s workplace'”

We have (all) always worked remotely at PJFS. That’s just the way things have developed over 15 years or so, with the closest we get to so-called ‘hybrid’ working (a bit of office, a bit of home) being fortnightly get-togethers. Those are important, and we all (well, me, anyway, I hope it’s the same for the rest of the gang) coming away feeling rather more part of something and that a useful time has been had by all. I don’t think, however, it makes any of us?relish the idea of looking at one another across a crowded office on a daily, or even a part-week TWAT (Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday, it’s a thing) basis. That way lies politics and personality clashes and all the reasons many have for quitting and moving on. And, very importantly, few of the post-Covid working generation would want or expect to be what used, many years ago, to be called ‘office fodder’. That commuter train has left the station. For good, I think. And hope.

I mentioned in a passing review a couple of weeks ago that there are but a few books which I have, in my lifetime so far, reread. I’ve been asked by quite a number of you for my list, which I guess comprises not just favourites, but very favourites. So, as I haven’t finished or watched anything new this week, here they are, with brief reasoning and the proviso that one or two are either of their time, or of the moment or circ in which they were first read. Already mentioned, and most recent, Freya by Anthony Quinn, set in and around the war years and just captivating, as is Sarah Winman’s Still Life, with added Florence. The Magus by John Fowles I read while living in Greece. I suspect it may seem rather 70s now, as may Brother of the More Famous Jack by Barbara Trapido. The Great Gatsby, of course, and Nancy Mitford’s hilarious Love in a Cold Climate, I was very into ‘20s glamour (to me then what the 60s is now). Jumping forward again, ‘The Unlikely Pilgrimage of Harold Fry’, we know the author Rachel Joyce and can spot the origins of some of its characters, plus it’s a lovely story. I don’t think we can count every Harry Potter and Roald Dahl any more than stuff studied for Eng Lit, as these were forced rereads for each of four children and for exams. But so were Laurie Lee’s Cider with Rosie and As I Walked Out, and I’d go back to them anytime. I’ll throw in as a wild card Cornish Cream by John Denton, which I took on every childhood holiday because of its setting even though I knew whodunnit. More for another week if you’d like/can stand it. And don’t get me started on films.