The Independence Day

As the anticipation builds up for May 3rd, marking the Second Independence Day of Free India, there is a feeling of enthusiasm, anticipation, and anxiety amongst the people. The myriad range of feelings is with the different people seeing independence differently. But the bigger question is, who all are ELIGIBLE for independence, in the first place. And If they are, what is the COST they will be paying for the same, i.e. what kind of inconvenience do they need to prepare themselves and what kinds of conditions they need to ensure for them to get the freedom.

When everything is in a state of flux and every new day brings in new information, news channels report on the spread of the virus across different states of India with statistical data of no. of positives, no. of deaths, people cured, etc., reminiscent to reporting of National Election results, where 'Trends' across states is discussed and the fate of various parties and candidates was being decided. Of course, the big difference being that this is ONE country, there are no Political parties involved and the fight is of survival/humanity and the common enemy we all need to beat, of course, is the virus.

At a global level every country (186 of them affected by the virus so far) is grappling with the issue in their own way, with the date and way of lockdown opening up being the key question on everyone's mind. However when we consider countries that have already eased the movement of people and lockdown is lifted in the truest sense its only China which we have as a benchmark. So based on the news emanating from China and what we have heard from experts already so far, I am sharing my own understanding of the scenario once the lockdown is lifted in India:

1. Lockdown is a pause and not the Cure for Corona: Rarely does one quote, Rahul Gandhi, nowadays, for him having said anything sensible. While his recent press conference, as always, got publicized for all the wrong reasons, he did mention something right, that the Lockdown is just a pause, an opportunity for the country to get its healthcare system and hospital readiness in place to address a large no. of Corona patients. Lockdown is not the Cure. So if you are hoping to see India become a Corona free country on May 3, sorry to disappoint you.
2. Normal is not only Boring, Normal is non-existent: So while I am a firm believer of the saying 'This too Shall Pass' and we will not remain under the cloud of Corona-fever forever, the life we lead before the lockdown will never be the same again. The complete eradication of the disease is not assured until we get a vaccine, which is well tested, produced in scale, and distributed well enough to be available for all, which still looks 12 months away. Even once that happens, a second wave of an alternative strain of the virus or another virus of similar threat cannot also be ruled out.
3. Healthcare is the new Defence: While we have been waiting for World War III since 1997 (when Nostradamus had predicted it would happen), we have a bigger war with ( as Donald Trump describes) the 'The Invisible Enemy'. The pandemic has already caused more damage than WWII (adjusted for inflation) and its fast from over. But countries have realized that all the investment in healthcare and medicine R&D is a waste if it takes a minimum of 12-18 months to come out with a vaccine for such a virus. Considering the huge cost the governments are spending on saving the economy, they all would have loved to spend a % of that cost on healthcare instead, if given a choice.
4. Welcome to the "Other Side": There is this dangerous delusional thinking that some people are applying in their assessment of the situation when advocating we should stop the lockdown. So let’s lift the curtain a bit.

• Social Distancing WILL be the norm for quite a while.
• Restaurants, when they dare to open, will have to make to with minimal staff and tables. More than 3 per table is unlikely. There may be no table cloths and cutlery will be minimized. Bars and Pubs can assume to remain closed for a long while now.
• Factories will operate with 50% staff and that also has to be staggered out to ensure social distancing while working.
• The only scope for Fashion is to make designer masks.
• Temperature checks will be pretty much normal, but there soon would need to be speed-test kits that can give results in 10 mins to allow entry in many places.
• Travel and Tourism industry are going to be hit the HARDEST. Flights are unlikely to resume normal operation from May 3. While there is talk of middle row in fights being kept vacant, no food being served, etc. the very fact that even one infected person (yeah, especially the asymptomatic one) in a closed air-conditioned space might potential infect everyone else, is a dreaded thought to board a flight with.
• While movie theaters will remain closed for a long time, the bigger worry is on content creation. Exercising social distancing when shooting movies and web series is not going to be as easy as the video which Amitabh Bacchan and team made and released recently.
• Sports Events will be impacted, but I do not think we can keep sportsmen and women down for a while. Events might be organized in empty stadiums with state of the art camera and transmission ensuring an awesome viewing experience at home.

5. You can go to Work but are your customers going to buy: With the entire economy being rattled the way it is, being able to attend work and resume production is just part of the battle won. In a subdued market sentiment, for anyone to consider by anything from the non-essential category, is going to require a lot of thinking. Apparel, shoes, sports goods, are just some of the examples.

6. Bye Bye Rentals: Just when the idea of getting everything on rent, furniture to cars to electronics, and even clothes on rent was becoming the norm, the renting industry is going to take a back seat after this. Unless we can trust the level of hygiene and disinfectant use, we would not be comfortable using a used product for a while.

7. Public Transport Blues: With the air still not clear (pun intended) on the ways in which the virus can spread through the air, any amount of precaution might not be enough when we travel by the metro or the bus. At last count, the no. of hours for which the droplet remains active on different surfaces was also not clear.

8. The Known Unknowns: What we know we don't know is precisely how many ways in which we can get infected, even if we are wearing a mask and ensuring we are not touching our hands to mouth/nose/eyes after touching a random surface. There is no one who is willing to print a clear cut manual on this as of now.

9. Your Age will not save you: This was a myth that got busted very early on in India. With kids, people in their 30s and 40s also succumbing to Corona, its not true that the old people are the ones who need to be worried the most.

10. Double Jeopardy is not applicable to Corona: This is again one of the known unknowns that will remain unresolved. Once you cured, are you immune for life? some cases in Japan said that it's not so and you can get infected again.

11. That Does not kill you, does it make you Weaker: What are the long term effects of the virus. While one may have got cured now, but what kind of damage has it done to the body and what kind of 'ails' one is likely to be prone to, is not clear.

12. Aa Laut Ke Aaja Mere Meet: No, I am not referring here to our beloved, but people whom we love even more than our spouses. The maidservants and the drivers. But are they all going to come back? after the 1.5 months of lockdown, with many having migrated back to their hometown far away, not everyone will just report for work on May 4 (or the day the lockdown is ended in your place). With 1.5 months of hard manual labor, many would consider resorting to extensive usage of vacuum learner and smart robots for house cleaning and dishwashers might see a huge bump in sales. While Its impractical to expect everyone to continue doing all the housework post-lockdown, a noticeable percentage of people will start doing a lot more work at home.

13. The Return of the Migrant Workers: More than the return, the immediate concern would be the hundreds of those who could not go to their hometown. They might want to take the opportunity to go now, exasperated, frustrated, and angry as they would be from this 40-day isolation of no income and being reliant on donated food for survival. It might be good for the government to encourage industries by providing them loans for enhanced use of robotics and technology on the shop floor. The migrant workers can look at creating some no vocation in their hometown, having had first-hand experience in different businesses in large towns. Its a thought surely worth a shot.

What has been disappointing, is that with all the talk about "Data is the new oil" and the progress we have made in Tech and AI so far, we are yet to come up with a simple database of the 2.7mn+ affected people and 180k+ deaths and 700K+ recoveries to understand:

• What worked and what did not worked
• Who was detected at what stage/how many days since contracting the disease and got cured
• Which medicines are working for what type of patient
• What is the diet to be followed by the patients and helps, etc.

In a nutshell, uncertainty is certain. The known unknowns will remain unknown for a while to come. Gear up for at least 6 to 12 months of uncertainty. The only way we can return to normal is not when we have the vaccine for Corona, but when we have an efficient Tech Ecosystem that can produce a vaccine for a virus, as soon as the anti virus companies produce the solution for computer viruses.

Finally, I end on the note with the firm belief in the statement "This Too Shall Pass".