Is Independence Day coming to Scotland?

Despite reports it seems Nicola Sturgeon’s planned date for a second independence referendum does not have the backing of a majority of Scots, a new poll has suggested, in an early blow to the freshly-announced strategy.

According to Lord Sumption, Nicola Sturgeon’s chances of victory in a legal battle to stage a second Scottish independence referendum have been damaged by a Supreme Court ruling against her government last year. Let's take a look at how the currency markets are absorbing the news this morning;

GBP:?GBP remains weak against the EUR and USD. As risk sentiment increased, following US equities moving into negative territory, GBP suffered. The pound was hit further by Scottish First Ministers' comments that the government will publish an independence referendum bill, with a potential vote in October next year. The Supreme Court will be asked to rule on whether a referendum vote would be legal without the approval of the UK government. Whilst there are still other areas of focus in the meantime, this with further increase uncertainty alongside Brexit concerns.?Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak later today.

EUR:?ECB’s president Lagarde offered no fresh insight into their path for raising rates following her speech yesterday. It is expected that they will follow others in raising rates in July although economists remain divided on the magnitude of the hike. Spanish annual inflation surpasses the 10% mark for the first time since 1985, as price pressures show little signs of slowing. The focus will also be on Germany’s reading today but even with a softer reading, pressures are still elevated and does little to provide comfort for the ECB.?Lagarde will be speaking again later today and will again be watched for clues regarding their rate hike path.?

USD:?The US Central Bank is expected to deliver another 0.75% rate increase in the next July meeting but economists remain worried that they have not seen the intended results of this thus far. Some concerns are that rate hikes will not get inflation under control but would slow growth, pushing the economy into a recession. Despite the possibility of recession standing above 50%, Powell has expressed optimism regarding the decision to hike rates, still hopeful that the economy will emerge unharmed.?Later today we have a speech from Fed Chair Powell and an update on Q1 GDP, the 1.5% annualised contraction is expected to be confirmed.