Inconvenient Proposal Nr. 2: The Anthropozene and Climate Action

Distinct from the many confusing graphs on greenhouse gases, the simplicity of the Keeling Curve (see graphic) just depicts the measurement of CO2 in the atmosphere from 1960 to today. At a glance, it is blatantly obvious that we have so far not been able to slow down the increase. And at this rate we will hit 430 ppm (considered the 1.5° limit) around 2030, and 450ppm (considered the 2° limit) about a decade later.

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Needless to say, the full science is more complex: We should add other green house gases (GHG, such as methane and nitrous oxide, forming CO2 equivalents, now well above 500ppm) and put in all the model uncertainties. This does not add clarity nor does it change the overall message.

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Already now, the Arctic heats up much faster and weakens Northern jet streams. Important consequences include longer weather periods, leading to heavy rain and droughts even in traditionally ‘temperate’ countries such as Germany. And above 1.5° we can expect the Greenland and West Antarctica icecaps to disappear (with increasing speed – hopefully still taking a century or more). This will ultimately raise sea water levels by about 9m plus 3.3m respectively.

Perhaps a last fact to know for context. China now emits as much GHG as the US, Europe and India combined. Also, per citizen China emits more (!) GHG than Europe and about as much as Germany on average. The climate battle is ultimately decided in Asia.

I am confident we will fight GHG emissions and climate change with everything human ingenuity can provide. Every time gain and every half degree difference will create unbelievable value to humanity – so we need ‘all hands on deck’! But it is also fair to assume that the above consequences can no longer be avoided, since realistically we are already fighting for a level (well) above 2°C. As a side note: such changes are irreversible until the next ice age. Even if we do reduce CO2 levels in future decades, we will not return to the state of the world in 2000.

The most important consequence of this is that we will face a fight on two fronts: reducing GHG in the atmosphere (and other environmental effects of the Anthropozene, e.g., on oceans and species), while also retaining our ‘ability to act’ in the face of already unavoidable climate change. Specifically:

• We need to assure a reliable energy supply, i.e., even during ‘Dunkelflauten’ (i.e. multi-day periods with minimal wind and sun), with a full fission/fusion and hydrogen (or other long-term storage - forget batteries) back-up for renewables. This remains the basis for everything.
• We need to assure food supply via a drastically more drought- and storm-resilient agriculture, most probably based on regenerative agro-forest environments, fully automated for productivity (forget simplistic bio/’back to granny’ approaches – the environmental changes are too drastic).
• ·We need to prepare for unprecedented challenges of our current infrastructure and our political decision processes in the face of necessary, but unpalatable, choices.

Irrespective, we are not the ‘last generation’ – Earth will not become entirely uninhabitable. Our most important task is thus to encourage and empower the Next Generation. Albert Einstein once stated that ‘problems are never solved by the same ways of thinking that caused them’. If there is truth to this, it becomes pointless to expect ‘those (in power), who created that mess, to clean it up’, since those people simply lack the creativity to find effective solutions. As a consequence, the NextGen striking or gluing themselves to the streets - while entirely legitimate - arguably won’t get them anywhere. Perhaps we can still contribute to a systemic understanding, and encourage and support them towards an innovative and scalable entrepreneurship that will.

Thanks for considering!