Incapability Maturity Model
Software development could be considered to be relatively new engineering activity. But, more and more, I’m starting to realize that the new kid in the block has grown up. It can even bring its insights to the main world. Concepts like Agile development, Shift Left, and the classic notion of Capability Maturity Model (CMM) are well-known in the software industry, but have applicability outside it as well.
Take CMM. It aims to improve existing software development processes, but it can also be applied elsewhere. It helps organizations to step by step grow their processes from the first Initial level (chaotic, ad hoc, individual heroics) to a five: Efficient. The model gives a structured way to gain control over their processes.
Recently, during an interesting discussion about the energy transition, it dawned on me that we are level 1, with many ad-hoc measures and individual initiatives. Think of the replacement of fuel with electricity for transportation and at the same time shutting down the nuclear plants in Germany. The current collapse of our energy grid due to net congestion, reads like a script from a Hollywood movie, in which a perfect storm of economical, engineering and manpower restrictions meet.
People have difficulties with interpreting large numbers
The energy transition is a massive change in how we run the technological basis of our society. By ignoring facts, make most discussions rather immature. I suspect not with bad intentions - it could be an example of number numbness. This concept was explained in an article written more than 40 years ago by Douglas Hofstader, originally in Scientific American (in May 1982). There he explains that, generally speaking, people have difficulties with interpreting large numbers and the feeling with numbers. A million, a trillion, a gigawatt, a terawatt they all seems ‘huge’ and therefore the same. Restricting the power of vacuum cleaners but continuing to fly planes is a result of failing to comprehend what numbers in the energy transition mean.
So, how do we proceed? A good guide on number numbness with a focus on energy transition, was written by David MacKay (1967-2016). This British physicist wrote Sustainable Energy without the hot Air, in which he brings order to the number chaos. It’s a very good attempt to bring balance to the overall energy usage versus the (sustainable) production. “The book is ... intended to be accessible to everyone who can add, multiply, and divide. It is especially aimed at our dear elected and unelected representatives, the Members of Parliament.”
In his work, MacKay maps compares (sustainable) energy generation options versus the (reduction) in energy consumption based on physics (and not wishful thinking). His goal it is to understand if and how our modern society can function on pure renewables and what would be required to implement it. Spoiler alert: it is possible but comes with a huge effort and price.
Associate Professor at University of Groningen
2 周Very informative. Thanks for sharing, Rix Groenboom!