Improving Pakistan's Air Quality

Efforts to clean the air we breathe cannot be made without specific context to our geography. For starters, Pakistan’s diminishing air quality is not a local issue. Pakistan lies 30 degrees north of the equator. The country falls in the tropical zone, which makes it vulnerable to trade winds, flowing east to west, invariably carrying India’s emissions. This is particularly true for communities along Pakistan’s shared eastern border with India. Hence, any meaningful discussion and subsequent effort on cleaning up the air in Pakistan has to include agreements and treaties with India. 

Tensions between the two countries are a disservice to everything from regional peace to the basic health needs of the people of the subcontinent. 

90% of India’s energy mix is powered through coal - regarded as one of the worst polluters of our environment . In 2019, Indian coal will release 460 million tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Conversely, in Pakistan, Sahiwal Power Plant and Port Qasim EPC are the two major coal power plants, contributing 85% of the total 12.49 million tons of CO2 emissions directly related to coal. Six additional plants are under construction, however, and it is estimated they will collectively add 21.18 million tons of carbon emissions to the atmosphere - that is a 169% increase in emissions resulting from coal-based power in Pakistan.    

Generating power through coal is cheap. And developing economies need cheap, grid quality power, to launch themselves into the global marketplace. That’s how coal power projects are justified: environmental and health implications are not factored into the cost of the plant. More than 100,000 people contract fatal respiratory illnesses in Pakistan each year but that does not change the bottom line on a business plan or a feasibility report. Our inability to assess new projects with an environmental and social lens means economic prosperity will come at the cost of human suffering. 

Apart from improving relations with India and persuading them out of coal (which is unlikely considering our own focus on fossil fuel) Pakistan should look inwards to identify major sources of air pollution within the country and invest in projects and technologies that can counter the rapid environmental degradation. Before we get to the recommendations it would be useful to take stock of where the pollution actually comes from. 

In 2012, roughly 90% of Pakistan’s 369 million tons in carbon emissions came from two sectors: energy and agriculture. 

In agriculture, our enormous livestock population is a big contributing factor - nearly 50% of emissions are attributed to this sector. Animal manure and enteric fermentation release copious amounts of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere - a gas that breaks down into water and carbon dioxide after 12 years and will absorb 100 times more heat than a CO2 molecule. 

Moving onto energy, in 2012, Pakistan’s power generation mix was 48% gas, 32% oil, 31% hydropower, 7% coal and 2% nuclear. An alarming trend, contributing to the dwindling air quality in Pakistan, is the hydropower share that dropped from 70% of the total energy mix in 1980 to 31% in 2012. In sharp contrast, Pakistan’s dependence on combusting fossil fuels for energy has gone up. Another interesting statistic is that nearly 50% of Pakistan’s electricity is consumed by households, nearly 30% by industries and 10% by agriculture. 

Furthermore, Pakistan’s total emissions are expected to rise to 650 millions tons of CO2 equivalent gases by 2020. The energy and agriculture sector’s combined contribution to this number (previously recorded at 90%) is likely to remain unchanged. 

To seriously counter air pollution, we need a robust policy to help decarbonise the economy. Having identified the major polluters, we know exactly where a change in behaviour and consumption is required the most. 

At 1.7 metric tons per capita, India’s emissions per person, are nearly two times in size compared to Pakistan - something that will continue to adversely affect Pakistan’s air quality. While there is little we can do to influence India’s emissions, there is plenty we can still do to improve Pakistan’s air quality. I am only going to list the most imperative initiatives amongst these. 

First, adopting clean energy innovations in how we build and power our homes is paramount. We need to gradually move towards a ‘net-zero emissions’ building code standard that will minimise energy losses and help homeowners generate their own energy. We must also mandate the use of energy efficient cooling, heating and lighting technologies and gradually phase out inefficient technologies.  

Second, Pakistan’s energy mix has to evolve so that a majority share is renewable. The world cannot afford more coal power plants. In Pakistan, the potential of the Indus to provide the clean energy we need is not yet fully realised. Political barriers that sideline clean energy initiatives should be resolved on priority. For coal power projects that are already underway, the government must enforce the use of pollution abatement technologies. 

Third, in the agricultural and solid waste management sectors, there is enormous potential to convert organic waste to renewable natural gas. Timely conversions could significantly reduce GHG emissions and generate additional energy for Pakistan. Just to add some perspective to this opportunity: Pakistan generates 48.5 million tonnes of solid waste every year. Some of the best digesters produce upto 90 cubic meters of renewable natural gas from a ton of food waste (where 1 cubic meter of gas can roughly provide 5 hours of cooking). The math is promising and the renewable natural gas fuel could potentially replace the direct combustion of biomass for cooking and heating purposes.     

Fourth, we must invest in both natural and artificial mechanisms of capturing and storing carbon. Reforestation and afforestation drives are necessary to regain the tree cover Pakistan has lost since 1947. On average, a young tree can capture around 13 pounds of CO2 in a year. Adult plants, at age ten and above can sequester around 48 pounds of CO2 in a year. Considering Pakistan’s emissions of 0.9 metric tons per capita, we must plant 153 trees against each individual in the country, i.e. 30.6 billion trees. These numbers are extraordinary, indeed, and they really underline the importance of maintaining and growing Pakistan’s forest cover, where tree populations are best positioned to survive without human supervision. 

In addition to reforestation and afforestation, a host of carbon capture technologies now exist in the market that can directly source carbon from the air and convert it to fuel, hence creating net zero carbon fuel. Several other companies also directly work with the energy sector and with industry to help sequester upto 90% of their emissions. With the right set of incentives for independent power producers, and with the use of international climate finance initiatives including the sale of carbon credits, these technologies can work in Pakistan and start cleaning the air. 

Fifth, in the last 15 years, as our forest cover has dwindled to less than 5% of our total land mass, the number of vehicles have increased by 268% from 4.7 million total registered vehicles in 2000 to 17.3 million vehicles in 2015. A carbon tax on fuel consumption, major investments in public transit and incentives to purchase zero emission electric vehicles for short hauls can significantly cut down emissions from transportation. An affordable, electronic, public transit system can take many carbon releasing vehicles off the road.    

Sixth, the people of Pakistan must understand their carbon footprint, common everyday behaviors to reduce their footprint, the dangers of climate change and their role in the fight against it. This must happen through a state-led mass advocacy campaign that brings together each of the five major initiatives listed above.   

Lastly, and most importantly, all of the above must take the shape of a robust public policy document with emissions reduction targets that are legislated so that Pakistan’s response to climate change remains unaffected by changing governments. An emissions inventory report should be published annually to measure the progress Pakistan is making in reducing its emissions and in keeping track of its 2030 emission targets, as per the Paris Climate Agreement. 

If Pakistan is serious about improving its air quality - it must act on all of the above - today.