Impressions from QuantumTech 2019

Let me share some impressions from QuantumTech in Boston on September 10/11 2019.

AlphaEvents managed to organize the arguably best conference on Quantum Technologies this year, covering Quantum Computing, Quantum Communication/Cryptography and Quantum Sensing/Metrology. Two truly intense days brought together top organizations from the US/Canada, Europe, and China/Australia, reviewing all aspects of the technology, current and future applications, government programs, the investors perspective, as well as current activities and future imperatives for the world to get quantum ready.

Clearly these are personal impressions only – please refer to the program for a complete overview. In particular, as I chaired the Quantum Computing Stream on the first day, the coverage of communication and sensing is incomplete.

Perhaps fittingly, Carl Williams from NIST (National Institute of Standards & Technology) opened with his view on where we stand and how to get the world quantum ready. Beyond the ‘normal’ activities of providing standards for new technologies in sensing, communication and auxiliary quantum technologies (in close collaboration with PTB in Germany), an important role of NIST lies in ensuring the future of encryption ‘beyond RSA’. The future of cryptography was also discussed later by Michele Mosca from U. Waterloo. Clearly the projected time frames until the potential end of RSA-type asymmetric encryption are shortening: Ranges of 15-20 years are already being discussed, raising the urgency to take action, since typical time frames for an orderly transition in large institutions are of the same order of magnitude. Speakers in the quantum communication/cryptography work stream later discussed extensively both new encryption methods and how to prepare infrastructure and products, as well as quantum key distribution (QKD) and future possibilities of quantum communication, in particular for finance and governments.

Kathy-Anne Soderberg from the US Air Force Research Lab provided an encouraging view – in light of the US imposing export restrictions on quantum tech – how even the US military continues to work with international talent in an open environment to advance quantum tech. The primary focus of her talk – as well as later General Dynamics Mission Systems and Thales, was on PNT (positioning, navigation and timing). These important quantum measuring techniques are at the forefront of the transitioning from first generation (bulk) to second generation (single atom) quantum systems with highly impressive progress. All these speakers also gave a system perspective of actually deploying such technologies – from organizing reliable supply chains all the way to operations in the most extreme field environments (requiring ‘resilience’ if under attack).

The user groups in quantum computing came from the early fields of application: Chemistry and Life Sciences (Merck, Bayer, BASF, GSK, Biogen, ProteinQure, AbbVIe, OTI Lumionics…), Finance (ABN Amro, BBVA, CIBC..) and Automotive/Industry (BMW, VW, BAE Systems, Schlumberger…).

• Materials and life sciences focuses on simulation of intermediary molecules, such as important for catalysts in agro/batteries, as well as active sites of molecules in drug discovery.
• Finance focuses on security (‘getting quantum-ready’), as well as risk management, asset pricing, optimizations and more.
• Industry focuses on logistics (including traffic mgmt.), computational fluid dynamics, as well as more general machine learning and optimization topics.

Important contributions to these discussions also came from the software and services companies Zapata Computing, QCWare and QxBranch (now Rigetti), often moderating the sessions.

The presentation ranged from the discussion of innovation, exploration and change challenges in companies, to the description of very concrete use cases and quantum results, all the way to detailed reviews of algorithms. Overall, pioneering companies are beyond experimentation and starting to develop a clear understanding what kinds of problems to address with quantum computing and how -but none of them has achieved a quantum advantage yet. Interestingly, OTI Lumionics – an OLED start-up – presented the arguably most specific results for pushing the boundaries in what they perceived as sweet spots for gate-based algorithms vs quantum annealers vs quantum-inspired algorithms in their computational chemistry efforts.

The full service providers IBM, Honeywell and Microsoft presented both the status and way forward of the specific HW technologies (semiconducting, ion traps and – still immature – topological qubits respectively), their growing cloud access, algorithmic and support services offerings to allow for an increasingly ‘general access’ to QC, as well as the wide range of applications – mostly around the above-mentioned user industries. Microsoft also presented early successes of their ‘quantum-inspired’ algorithms, while Honeywell explicitly explained how to get ‘beyond a single ion trap’ – a key milestone in their roadmap going forward. (Rigetti, represented by the Ex-QxBranch representatives, moderated application discussions).

The Chinese players, Alibaba and Tencent, focused exclusively on the algorithmic and SW layer. Alibaba presented strong results on the potential of the QAOA algorithms and its complexity limits (presented by the double G?del prize medalist Mario Szegedy), while Tencent focused on the potential and challenges of QC in machine learning, in particular quantum memory for data provisioning.

The tech angle was completed by players focusing on critical support technologies, such as Quantum Benchmark (benchmarking and optimization of HW), Q-CTRL (decoherence mgmt.), Zyvex Labs and start-up IQM (different aspects of scalability). Of interest in a related area were Cambridge Quantum Computing and ID Quantique with (verifiable) random number generation.

Overall, on the HW side, no new results on the gate-stability, connectivity or calibration of the current -~50 qubits machines in the various labs were presented. Google was absent, so their quantum advantage efforts invariably became the subject of a few side conversations/speculations.

Clearly, the government perspective was not missing: The US was represented by the Quantum Economic Development Consortium, continental Europe by the EU Quantum Flagship program and QuTech, and the UK - very strongly - by the Quantum Technologies program within UK Innovation and Research. Not represented were China, as well as Australia and Canada, all with strong Quantum programs. In each of the global triad, the Quantum Tech programs are well over 1bn$ each, 10bn$ in the case of China. The general sense was that with the strong advances over the last years, the enormous investments by tech companies and the strong government support, ‘quantum’ is a technology, whose time has come. However, many science and fundamental engineering challenges remain - and so far global collaboration in these areas remains strong.

The investor discussion, including Morgan Stanley, Prelude Ventures, WorldQuant Ventures and The Engine, revealed a very wide spectrum of approaches and attitudes. While quantum sensing and metrology are ‘normal’ tech invest areas – with specific market sizes and competitive differentiation at the core – all aspects of quantum computing remain high-risk at this stage, given the fundamental uncertainty of the time-line. Irrespective, quite a few high-profile early stage financing rounds have recently been announced.

Last but not least there were the comprehensive historic and future perspectives: Quantum pioneer Seth Lloyd from MIT gave an entertaining summary of the major milestones in quantum computing. And while he has always been cautioning companies with respect to the immediate business potential, even he sees the current level of investment as a tremendous boost to the advances in the field. Seth also reminded us that most of the known algorithms today were discovered at least ten years ago, suggesting we might invest into more innovation in this area going forward.

The closing remarks by Bert de Jong from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab summarized the current focus across Quantum Computing: where we expect value in the NISQ (Noisy Intermediate State Quantum) period, while preparing for a full quantum future.

Let me end on a pro domo note: I was truly moved by the many public and private expressions of gratitude for the Quantum Computing reports BCG has provided for free to the community at large. Allow me to reference the most widely used:

• For a review of the Quantum Computing field (in particular for those getting started in the business): Ecosystem, key players (tech and users), regional views of publications, invest and IP, as well as a discussion of the leading HW technologies and a guide to the quantum algorithm zoo – with a perspective on how to play the NISQ era: The Next Decade in Quantum Computing – and How to Play
• For an in-depth analysis of the key markets over the next decade (in particular for those needing to justify the investment): Chemistry/Material Science/Pharma, Finance, Machine Learning, Computational Fluid Dynamics and more: Where will Quantum Computers Create Value and When
• ?For a fun and educational introduction (also suitable for ‘friends and family’, in case you have tired of explaining quantum computing): Is your mind quantum-ready? – The BCG Quantum Computing Test

 Stay tuned!