The Impossible Armada

Have you ever pondered over the extent to which providence played a part in your achievements? Conversely, have you ever complained about how misfortune might have been responsible for your setbacks? If you had to establish a percentage assigning luck, whether good or bad, as a factor in the success or failure of your projects, what amount would you assign to it? Would it be closer to 30%, or 10%?

?

I sometimes ask my students how they would distribute the percentages they attribute to various factors related to success in life. Taking what we might call a naturalistic position, many believe that up to 90% of what we achieve is down to our genes, the qualities we inherit from our family, to which I usually reply that sometimes the remaining 10% can be decisive in deciding our destiny. Others place more importance on the environment we grow up in; our education and what happens in to us in childhood and early youth. In any case, the family into which we are born, and therefore our genetic code, as well as the environment in which we live our first years, are the result of chance, something beyond our control. On the other hand, personal initiative makes it possible to compensate for our domestic environment: summed up by Tennessee Williams ’ aphorism that friends are God's way of apologizing for our families. ?

?

In short, whichever way you look at it, there is no denying that luck plays a role in our lives. By opening ?ourselves to new experiences, exploring new opportunities or meeting different people, we are expanding the possibilities for things to happen, and therefore to find good luck. For example, do you take the opportunity to say hello to a stranger in an elevator, or to talk to colleagues in your company when you pass them in the corridor? Do you strike up a conversation with the traveler sitting next to you on the plane? Do you respond to disinterested messages from distant senders on social media?

?

My experience is that when someone consistently blames their failures on luck, there is usually some unacknowledged responsibility at play. It is often said that successful entrepreneurs have a background of repeated failures, but never gave up or blamed their setbacks on bad luck.

?

The Spanish Armada , sent by King Philip II in 1588 to pave the way for an invasion of England, is one of the best-known what-if episodes in history. It is also a paradigm of moral superiority, in which the Spanish king understood that his mission and God's were the same, and therefore providence would hold sway. Geoffrey Parker , the English historian and an expert on this period, quotes Philip verbatim: "I hope in God [...] that He will give you much health and life, for He will employ himself in His service and in mine, which is the same thing". He would subsequently call on the Inquisition to continue to do "what is so convenient to the service of God and mine, and to the authority of the Holy Office, that the one cannot be divided from the other." His belief that religious principle should always prevail over political calculation amounted to messianic imperialism. Philip became convinced that he possessed a mandate to defend the Catholic faith wherever and whenever. This messianism generates the firm belief that one is in possession of the truth, and that all means, whether legitimate or illicit, are acceptable in order to achieve objectives that are understood to be divine.

?

Spain’s territories at that time included the Philippines -which bore the name of its king- as well as much of South and Central America: an empire on which the sun never set. Philip ran this vast empire from El Escorial , the magnificent palace-monastery northwest of Madrid, in a highly centralized manner. His communication system connected the key parts of his empire. Couriers on horseback could travel an average of 160 km per day, so that mail from Paris to Madrid could be received in eight days. The king could write as many as 100 missives a day, an immensely arduous and unusual administrative task for a monarch. In addition, the empire had the most extensive network of ambassadors and spies of the time, with agents from the Vatican to the Court of Elizabeth I in England.

?

Philip, who had briefly been married to the English queen, Mary Tudor , until her death in 1558, was obsessed with reconverting England to Catholicism, following Henry VIII ’s schism with Rome half a century before. The plan was to invade England, depose Mary Tudor’s staunchly Protestant successor, Elizabeth I, and enthrone her cousin Mary Stuart, a Catholic and formerly Queen of Scotland, but now effectively imprisoned. After several years of what Parker describes as a "cold war" between Spain and England, Elizabeth, hiding behind her Privy Council, signed the death her sister’s death warrant, accelerating Philip's plans for conquest.

?

The cost of creating the Armada was initially estimated at 7 million ducats (equivalent to €1.4 billion today), although the actual cost was much higher. It brought together more ships than had ever been assembled under a single fleet and command: 132 vessels sailed from the Iberian peninsula, commanded by the Duke of Medina Sidonia , and were expected to be supplemented by dozens of other vessels that would embark from the Netherlands, commanded by the Duke of Parma . The plan, hatched by Philip II himself, was that both expeditions would meet in the English Channel and from there undertake raids on the British coast, reach London and seize the queen. There was only one slight error from the outset: neither the place nor the date agreed upon for this meeting had been decided. Either the selection of both had been left to providence, or there was excessive confidence in the ability between the two admirals of the fleet to communicate with the king, who continued to receive and give orders from his office in El Escorial.

?

The Duke of Medina Sidonia’s fleet reached the south of England, but chose not to disembark in the port of Plymouth, where it could have gained an advantage. Instead, some of his ships engaged in combat with the English, but Medina Sidonia opted to leave them behind and continue on to the port of Calais, on the French coast, where he hoped to meet Parma. What he didn’t was that his comrade in arms had received his messages late, and that in the meantime his fleet had set sail. It was at Calais that the decisive misfortunes began. The English fleet began to deploy small ships loaded with gunpowder and tinder, which exploded on contact with their targets, creating mayhem. These attacks terrified the Spanish crews, who panicked and began to take flight. Most of the Armada fled eastwards, toward the North Sea, then along the Scottish coastline, finally turning westwards towards the Atlantic seaboard of Ireland. Although it was August, the fleet was hit by a series of storms, possibly caused by the El Ni?o weather phenomenon, with the crews quickly succumbing to illness and even death. Matters were made worse by having to navigate unfamiliar waters, along with rocky outcrops all along the West of Ireland.

?

Any landing presented dangers, because the English, and many Irish, despite being Catholics in the main, took advantage of the opportunity to pillage or to turn in Spanish sailors, many of whom were summarily executed. Of the ships that originally left Spain, slightly more than half returned, albeit in very poor condition, and more than 500 sailors perished or disappeared.

?

Parke explains that if the two admirals had been given more autonomy, so that they could raid English territory separately, the mission would have had a better chance of success. However, he adds that there were a number of other mistakes, from which modern managers can learn lessons:

?

-First, King Philip II's micromanagement and need to control every detail of the operation, despite having no experience in naval combat, unlike his more experienced captains. Furthermore, he paid no heed to his advisors, believing that his inspiration came from or was protected by God. Parker explains: "According to modern organizational theories, the least effective and least successful corporate system is the "crisis management" model, in which the leader tries to manage everything dictatorially and without sharing information, reducing employees at all levels to mere pawns and then, when overwhelmed by the burden of responsibility, reduces the organization's objectives to solving successive challenges and trying to avoid mistakes. This leadership style, which has been called the zero-defect mentality, was adopted by Philip."

?

-The English ships were more agile and faster. Many of the Spanish ships were built too quickly for their mission, and as is often the case with hastily executed projects, and had many flaws that hampered gunnery operations and shipboard logistics. In addition, the quality of the Spanish gunpowder and armament was of dubious quality.

?

-Some historians also point to the greater seafaring expertise of the English commanders and seamen, as opposed to the incompetence of some of the Armada’s captains, who had been promoted for their lineage and not for their experience.

?

-In addition, the Armada's crews came from a variety of countries, including German, Italian, Portuguese, Spanish and African sailors, among others. Cultural diversity can be an important competitive advantage if it is properly managed, but in the heat of battle, those ships must have been a kind of modern Babel.

?

In cases of disaster such as the Armada's, the first reaction is to look for a scapegoat. In this case, it did not take long to first blame the Duke of Parma for failing to meet with the Duke of Medina Sidonia. However, Parma had sufficient documentation, all his messages and testimonies, proving that he had been willing to sail from the ports of Flanders to implement the mission, and the problem was that he was informed too late of Philip’s plans.

?

Public opinion then pointed the finger at Medina Sidonia, who no sooner had he arrived at the port of Santander, left the many wounded sailors who returned with him to fend for themselves. Medina Sidonia's lack of expertise was also shown in several combat episodes, where he lacked decisiveness and empathy with his commanders.

?

But the ultimate responsibility lay with Philip, to whom is attributed the famous expression "do not send my ships to fight against the elements", referring to the unexpected storms that his fleet had faced. Unforeseen weather was certainly the main surprising factor, but there were many other causes that contributed to the disaster.

?

Perhaps the salient lesson here is how moral superiority can blur leaders’ judgment, leading them to trust to providence. Europe’s religious wars ?continued well into the 18thcentury. The American philosopher John Rawls refers to these conflicts when he explains that coexistence in a society with a diversity of beliefs and different religions can only be achieved through tolerance and what he calls an "overlapping consensus". This consensus is reached through compromise in moral areas that preserve personal freedom, as long as there is no harm to third parties, even if they do not coincide with the beliefs of part of the population.

?

Unfortunately, moral superiority is alive and well throughout the world. History continues to repeat itself, and it seems we are condemned never to learn from events.

--------------------

You may visit my INSTAGRAM account here

?