On the importance of thinking long-term

In today’s world, short termism is rife.?

Our political leaders promise us things that will make us better off in the short-term, no matter the long-term damage that may result. It’s even more questionable when they tell us that a specific policy will result in long-term damage, and then volte-face to support the policy because of its voter appeal. A lack of honour, one might say.

Politicians can do this because they know their promises are short-term too. We don’t hold our politicians materially accountable for statements they make (neither the detail nor the thrust) in election campaigns.

Our love of short-termism is probably to do with it being logical.

The future is the future. It’s far away, undefined, messy, and by definition un-present. Whereas the present is here. It’s real and tangible. We don’t know what will happen in the future, but we know what’s happening today and what we need to do to manage it. It makes sense to manage the thing that you can do something about now, and leave the future problem to the future.

There are many examples of where we have created long-term challenges on the back of short-term solutions.

The climate is the obvious one. Scientists have warned what our world may look like for years if we didn’t make strides towards reducing carbon emissions. We have - and continue to - repeatedly prioritise short-term gain. Widespread fires in London last month made those warnings very real.

It’s a similar story when it comes to German consumption of Russian energy. Warnings were repeatedly made and ignored over the years about the risks, yet the long-term challenges were ignored in favour of the short-term gain. As Timothy Snyder puts it, “For thirty years, Germans lectured Ukrainians about fascism. When fascism actually arrived, Germans funded it, and Ukrainians died fighting it.” The reputational damage will last for years.

Long-term thinking is important right through the policy food chain - not just at the international policy level. If you don’t have that north star to guide your short-term thinking, you’ll be less efficient and less likely to achieve your goals.

Consider narrative change. Entailed within changing an entrenched narrative is changing an established mode of thinking. To succeed, we need to constantly reiterate stories in support of it so that the new narrative becomes dominant. And then maintain so it is able to withstand an opposing narrative.?

Narrative change necessities coalition building. You need everyone to buy into it. So aligning the views of other campaigning organisations is crucial. We’ve worked on a number of campaigns where the same set of policymakers are being targeted by similar campaigns, each of which argues for a slightly different policy response. It’s confusing for everyone, especially the policy makers. Again, this kind of alliance building requires long-term thinking.

Perhaps the biggest factor is not just taking your time, but waiting for the right time. Political will to make a change in a specific area rests on a sense of urgency. These moments are few and far between - you need to be ready to take advantage of them.

Short-lived campaigns have their place. But if you want to change something deep seated, you need to look at the horizon. Climate change and Germany’s strategic failure on energy policy are big ticket items, but the lessons are just as relevant to you and I.