Amateurs think in absolutes; professionals think in probabilities.

Amateurs think in absolutes; professionals think in probabilities.

In the military, people will die to protect other people they had never met before they joined. How does this happen?

Combat soldiers talk about whom they will die for. It’s those next to them in the trench; or the vehicle; or the shell scape. It's not for the fight song or the national anthem. Nor the flag, or the generals back at HQ. It is for those people who sacrifice and bleed right next to them.

I observed something early in the Special Forces. I didn’t know how to explain it then, but I have thought a lot about it. Many things in life have a dynamic range in which the average-to-best is at most 2:1. For example, an average golf ball versus the best available: a possible 20% advantage. An average dry cleaner versus the best: an even slimmer margin. An average pizza, haircut, taxi ride or cinema. These are more subjective, but it is hard to imagine a huge variance beyond twice as good. Coffee, beer, wine and whisky: these invoke a different feeling for some. Still, it is hard to imagine the best times better than the average (even if price betrays this reality). But in the military, in the Special Forces, and combat, the difference between average, and the best is more like 50 to one, or even 100 to one. This is evident in two ways: the brutal Special Forces selection process which eliminates 95% who attempt it. And the track record of Special Forces throughout history.

This effect of dynamic range applies to teams within businesses also.

The military has perfected the process of grinding, sifting and sorting the "A" players. As well as building the most effective teams. And when there are enough "A" players together; once the incredible work to find them is complete; their achievements are remarkable. One key tenant of all groups of "A" players is an innate self-policing mentality. They don’t work with "B" and "C" players. They won't let each other drop their standards. They only want to work with the best to achieve extraordinary results as a team.

It is a leader’s job to cultivate a battlefield-like sense of camaraderie among his or her personnel. An environment for people to find a way to bond together. To care about one another and the work they do. To feel the connection and extension necessary for great results. This is the strongest bond and motivator of all; even stronger than money. In the military, it is even strong enough to die for.

It is then the investor's job to identify when this is present in a business.

The combination of individual intelligence does not make for group intelligence. “A” players provide a lot more than raw intellectual horsepower. They also bring drive, integrity, adaptability, and an ability to make others better.

Solving difficult problems rarely requires the best individual talent. It requires the best team. We operate in a world where it’s near impossible to achieve anything great as an individual. People are the product of an education system, a healthcare system, of luck and timing. Many are smart but few if any are actually self-made. In business, the most important achievements need a team of people working together.

So how to be an "A" player - Special Forces or business. Exhibit a ferocious and intelligently applied work ethic directed at continual improvement. Display respect for each person in the organisation and the work they do no matter the level. Remain committed to learning and teaching, which means increasing one's own expertise. Be fair; show character; and honour. Embrace the direct connection between details and improvement. Show self-control, especially where it counts most: under pressure. Display and prize loyalty; use positive language, and have a positive attitude. Be willing to go the extra distance for the organization. Deal appropriately with victory and defeat, adulation and humiliation. Promote internal communication that is both open and substantive (especially under stress). Seek poise. Put the team’s welfare and priorities ahead of your own. Maintain an ongoing level of concentration and focus that is abnormally high. Remember that amateurs think in absolutes. Professionals think in probabilities. Amateurs think knowledge is power. Professionals pass on wisdom and advice. Amateurs focus on being right. Professionals focus on getting the best outcome. Amateurs focus on first-level thinking. Professionals focus on second-order thinking. Amateurs think good outcomes are the result of their brilliance. Professionals understand when good outcomes are the result of luck. Amateurs focus on the short term. Professionals focus on the long term. Amateurs focus on tearing other people down. Professionals focus on making everyone better. Amateurs blame others. Professionals accept responsibility

Build a pocket of "A" players; let the results propagate.


Allan Schmidt

Chief Financial Officer

4 年

Well done!

回复
Baden Gowrie-Smith

Social Entrepreneur | Co-Founder at ReFuels | CNG Fuels | RTFS | Theragnostics

4 年

Great read, thanks Will. Best wishes for 2021

回复
Michael McCallum

people | AI in higher education | freudenfreude jedi

4 年

Move over Peter Thiel...the WMD is in the house !

回复
Dominic Bowen

Partner & Head of Strategic Advisory - helping business leaders thrive

4 年

Thanks for taking the time to write this mate. It is insightful and relatable, whether you are a former SF operator, or an executive leader. A team of A-players, all with "...drive, integrity, adaptability, and ability..." Nothing beats it!

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