Implications of Change in the Job Market

The World Economic Forum produces a Future of Jobs report twice a year. In their May 2023 report one of the highlights included the projection of a 2% job loss by 2027. The largest roles proposed to decline included data entry clerks, administrative and executive secretaries, accounting and bookkeeping clerks, and security guards. The largest roles to increase included agriculture equipment operators, heavy truck and bus drivers, and vocational teachers. But overall, the projection is a 2% decrease which equates to a reduction of 14 million jobs. A startling number to say the least. Today what I would like to explore are the potential implications of such a staggering decline in jobs. You can do this in a variety of ways, but I want to walk through a simple implication map.

Implication maps are used towards the end of a Futures project. They help organizations and people understand what may come out of any possible future or change. There are too many times that organizations implement a change without thinking about the consequences of their actions. Significant amounts of time and research typically go into change for an organization and yet they are so short-sighted at times that they end up just a few years later reverting to what it was they were trying to change in the first place. By doing a simple implication map an organization can gain insight into what may or may not happen if some change took place.

The first step is universal. You identify a change, typically something that comes from the scenarios you’ve created, and begin to think “if this happens what may come”. I joke that Futures is designed for those with anxiety because typically we are always thinking ten steps ahead, worried constantly about what may come. But that is the name of this game. The if, then game. What I like to do is try to find “then’s” that are positive, negative, and neutral. You can see in my example below that I have two negatives: an increase in the number of unemployed and greater wealth divide, a neutral: increased number of part time jobs, and a positive: increased number of people seeking higher education. Of course, this is based on my opinion of what is positive, negative, and neutral but at the end of the day it gives you a good variety to work from. Once you have the first implication set listed, begin to work from each one, doing a single line at a time. I like to go at least three implications deep. As you continue line by line, you may notice similarities, or some may link up with others. You can see I have a few similarities which I’ve highlighted in blue and yellow. And a few links which you can see with the dotted line. You can make your map as simple or complicated as you like but keep in mind the goal is to reflect on what you’ve gleaned from the exercise. Once you are satisfied with your map we can begin to ask the hard questions.

What surprises you? I wasn’t quite expecting a trade economy to emerge but here it is, twice in my implications map and I feel like if I kept going with a few of these other lines I could have ended there as well. What is remarkable is people’s ability to turn lemons into lemonade. When the going gets tough, most people tend to find a way out. It is human nature to be curious and to survive and one can expect that humanity won’t just sit idly around while machines take over the job market. Small businesses, home or community gardens, crafting, and care will all be things people could use to barter and trade with.

Is there something you want to avoid? There are quite a few things I would avoid in this implication map but the biggest one of all is probably this negative spiral that we seem to be going down where organizations lay off workers, the economy crashes, organizations lay off even more workers, and so on and so forth. That leads us down a collapse scenario path that I just would rather avoid.

Does this change the direction you want to go? How? I’ve thought a lot about the future of work and how technology will inevitably impact our working lives. I believe it will be a slow transition, one littered with layoffs and hours cut. If you look at the jobs that the World Economic Forum listed as those most likely to be lost, secretaries, bookkeepers, and the like you can see how it might at first be laying off half the team, then cutting hours, then whittling things down to just one secretary working 20 hours a week, so they don’t have to offer benefits, and the rest goes to AI. If I had an organization that was planning on going this route and I looked at the implication of a gender divide because families are forced into having one parent stay home with the kids, I would want to find a way to flip this around. The reality is that I will, as the organization, probably cut hours. Why wouldn’t I want to be more efficient? Plus, my workforce likes flexibility and having more free time. But maybe I can offer incentives to my employees like childcare support, onsite daycare, or flexible hours such that an employee could work from home or in the evenings when the other parent is home. Of course, this comes with even more implications but that is something for another paper. These are all easy enough to implement and if I’m really saving money and being more efficient with the technology I’ve invested in, why not give back to my workers through things like childcare support?

There are many more questions an organization could ask itself. The great thing about an implication map is how easily it opens opportunities for discussion. One thing to emphasize is including people at all levels within the organization. Hold a workshop or focus group and have people at every level add their input. The implications an action may have on someone mid-level may be quite different compared to the implications at the top. The more we can work to understand those that we impact, the better our decisions will end up being. Next time you, your team, or your organization are thinking about change, try adding an implication map into the mix. ?

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Citations:

World Economic Forum. Future of Jobs Report 2023 . May 2023.

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