The Impending Tory Immigration Civil War

Today it was revealed that net migration in 2023 stands at 672,000 people. As well as this, 2022’s figure has been revised, up 139k from previous estimates, to 745,000 people.

These figures are an insult to all Brits, but particularly Conservative voters, who have been repeatedly promised by 5 different Prime Ministers that the issue would be addressed. The public have endured a cost-of-living crisis, the highest ever peacetime tax burden, a broken housing market, and barely functioning public services.

Those in government during the last 13 years have been chronically ineffective, persistently inept and woefully incompetent. This issue looks likely to create a Tory civil war, either before or after the election, as angry backbenchers finally lose patience with no. 10. The public will punish the Conservatives in the polls, as they finally accept that the party is incapable of dealing with immigration.

The current situation

In 2010, David Cameron said "We would like to see net immigration in the tens of thousands rather than the hundreds of thousands". In 2019, Boris Johnson said "We will restore democratic control of immigration policy after we leave the EU".

Brexit was intended to ‘take back control’ of immigration, but in reality, it has spiralled out of control. Despite the promises of Brexit, asylum seekers are housed in hotels across the UK, costing the taxpayer ￡8 million a day. Labour’s Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper put it best when she said “Once again, the British taxpayer is footing the bill for the Conservatives’ chaos”.

Our government has admitted over a million people into this country over the last 2 years, whilst our public services are stretched thin, and British workers are just barely getting by. If we keep accepting everyone, soon we will be unable to accommodate genuine refugees and asylum seekers.

The impending Tory civil war

After sacking Suella Braverman last week, Sunak will have to enact drastic and immediate measures to prevent his party from descending into civil war. The New Conservatives, a group of Tory MPs, released a statement, describing the situation as “do or die” for the party.

The group says that the rise in net-migration is the consequence of “conscious decisions by Government”, and characterised it as a betrayal of their manifesto commitments in 2019. These MPs represent the grievances of Conservative voters accurately, and suggests that a post-election split in the party is highly likely.

MPs may also pledge allegiance to Richard Tice’s Reform UK party, who maintain a net-zero immigration stance. Even if Sunak can keep his party together, the damage has already been done. Voters will punish the Conservatives at next year’s election, for their consistent mismanagement and incompetence over immigration.

Conclusions

The public have elected the Conservatives 4 times in the last 13 years, and each time they promised that net-migration would come down. Not only have they not delivered on their promise, but things have gotten much worse, and the British people have payed the price. The electorate no longer trust the Conservatives to control our borders.

The Conservative party is splitting, and Reform UK are gaining support. Unless Sunak acts decisively, and in reality nothing he could do will outweigh 13 years of incompetence, a Tory civil war is an inevitability. Party members will either defect to Reform UK or start positioning themselves for a power-grab in the post-election fall-out. The situation surrounding immigration might be the final nail in the coffin for this Conservative government.