The Impending Systems Collapse

Be prepared for a gradual degradation, and in some cases complete collapse, of computer-driven systems that you depend upon every day— websites, e-mail, cell phones, etc.— and from which you have become accustomed to expect flawless performance.?Also expect an overall degradation in organizational processes and systems that have previously functioned well.

What to Expect

At first, there will be "glitches" requiring you to repeat attempts to complete tasks within a system.?The glitches will increase in frequency and severity, and just when you have resigned yourself to them, there will be sporadic malfunctions of system features (e.g. your cell phone will repeatedly drop calls, your favorite website will no longer perform searches correctly, the item you reserved online is not in the store's inventory), and, ultimately, breakdowns of entire systems.?The signs of stress have already appeared, and once the collapse begins in earnest it will accelerate quickly.?

Why This is Happening

There are various unrelated reasons behind this problem, some of which began many years ago.?Each has been developing gradually, and they all are now coming to a head in a "perfect-storm" scenario.?Here are the major factors that will drive the systems collapse.

1. Virtually every major resource used by modern society is now controlled by computers, from one-chip microcontrollers to mainframe computers.?Every supply chain, most manufacturing operations, and even the farmer in the field relies on computer-driven equipment.?The lights and appliances in many homes are computer-controlled.?Your smartphone is a sophisticated computer, and the cellular network you use is driven entirely by computers.?Large computer data centers hold nearly all the information used by humans today, from financial records and legal documents to family photos.?They also form the backbone of the internet, which is essential for data to flow where it's needed.?Every one of the nearly 2 billion computers in use worldwide depends 100 percent on software— from machine firmware to computer operating systems to file management systems to functional applications.
2. We all know that new software applications ("Apps") are being developed continuously.?Much of the software that drives major computer systems, however, is not new— due to its complexity, cost, and long development time, these systems use "legacy" software.?Legacy software is now being maintained and updated not by the original developers, but by the next generation of developers.?This generation is accustomed to developing and updating software by assembling code modules that were written previously by others or by utilizing automated coding platforms.?This is analogous to most of today's car mechanics, who don't (or can't) diagnose and repair a problem, but instead simply replace parts until the problem goes away.
3. Updates to computer software for consumers, business, industry, and government used to involve discrete downloads (and before that, installation) of successive versions— and each update was a major project.?Today, software updates have become virtually continuous.?This trend was enabled by a spectacular increase in wireless bandwidth and driven by the need for frequent patches to thwart ever more relentless hackers.?As a result, there is far less concern about "bugs" and mistakes— if necessary, these can be fixed as they are identified and sent out the following day in an update.?The irony here is that the sloppy quality control resulting from frequent security updates often creates new security vulnerabilities— which are then quickly exploited by hackers.?
4. As more and more critically valuable information has moved to digital platforms, the number and influence of hackers has increased at an explosive rate.?Having no rules, business structure, or ethics, hackers have actually been responsible for most of today's software innovations— both their own, and those of software companies working to thwart their latest attacks.?Strictly speaking, hackers are also software developers.?There is no way to determine who is a "white-hat" and who is a "black-hat"— and it is very likely that many advanced programmers operate on both sides of the wall.?Imagine the power a developer has who is in a position to embed (as a white-hat), and then exploit (as a black hat), a security vulnerability!?It's impossible that this has not motivated some to do exactly that.?With the sloppy quality control in today's software, who would know??Playing this game naturally results in rapid increase in the number and severity of attacks, which is what we are seeing today.?
5. The shift to remote work has placed an ongoing strain on business and government organizations.?Initially, when the fraction of remote workers was small, remote work difficulties and inefficiencies had little impact upon overall organizational performance.?As this fraction increased, however, many organizations have had trouble implementing the management and technological changes required for successful remote work. Moreover, it has not been generally recognized that worker attributes necessary for successful remote work can differ significantly from those for office work.?Most workers now working remotely were originally selected and hired for what used to be office jobs, where task supervision, technical guidance, peer support, and an overall professional environment were readily available.?In contrast, remote work requires self-discipline, time management, self-starting, self-assignment, ability to work productively while unsupervised, and ability to focus when there are distractions— not every office worker can succeed as a remote worker.?As a result, until the shift to workers best suited to remote assignments catches up to the rapid shift to remote work, the quality of work will continue to suffer and the number of errors will continue to increase.
6. American workers, particularly younger workers, have become less competent in skills associated with high productivity.?Some have developed competencies in other areas that are of little use to most business and governmental operations; some are simply less competent overall.?This is the result of over a full generation of inadequate education, misguided parenting, and poor social training.?To some degree, the lack of worker competence has been offset by technology (e.g., cash register tells cashier what change to return), which also facilitates continued incompetence.?One area where skills have dropped significantly is management.?Fewer workers can manage operational processes well, and those processes tend to fail without good management.?This is not so much an issue of intelligence as it is one of attitude.?Being a competent manager requires a commitment to obtaining results and confidence in one's ability and authority to direct the activities of others— traits less prevalent in younger workers.?As a result of diminished worker and manager competencies, it takes more people today to do a job less well than before.?Next time you visit a fast food restaurant, notice how many people are working there and recall how often your order has come out wrong.?
7. Unprecedented restrictions imposed by government upon businesses and citizens related to the COVID-19 pandemic have intensified and accelerated the above factors, particularly the shift to remote work.?Also, the significant increase in government financial support available to workers who have lost their jobs has tended to reduce the motivation to obtain and retain a job.?As a result, many organizations are seriously understaffed, not only in numbers but in quality and overall motivation as well.?While these government actions may be temporary, they will likely have a lingering effect upon the workforce.?
8. The economic rivals and political enemies of the United States are closely monitoring (if not actually causing) the above problems, and can be expected to act to exacerbate them.?This will add energy to the "perfect storm" we are facing.?

What To Do

Here are a few ideas that can help you endure the impending systems collapse.

1. Reduce your psychological dependency upon computer technology.?It's virtually impossible in today's society to fully eliminate computer dependency.?However, if you imagine this scenario and contemplate ways you might continue to function under such circumstances, you will shift your personal psychological outlook and better prepare yourself to deal with the problem.?You can test out your ideas and get a taste of what might come by assigning a set period of time (1-2-3-4 hours per day, one day per week, etc.) as "zero-tech" time where you refrain from using digital devices.?
2. Take direct possession of your most valuable information.?Get or assign a large capacity storage device (at least 1 terabyte) as your "secure" storage.?Download everything you presently have stored "in the Cloud"— files, photos, email, etc.— to this device (this will be very challenging the first time you do it, but will become easier afterward).?Repeat this process at least once per month.?If you don't have paper records for important accounts (e.g. bank statements), go to the appropriate websites and download PDF files of every statement for each account, going back as far as the website permits (usually at least 18 months).?
3. Reduce or eliminate your actual dependency on any computer technology that is not under your exclusive control.?Ideally, you should have one "secure" computer that you can completely disconnect from the internet (maybe an outdated computer that still works but doesn't have enough storge or can't run the latest software).?Keep the operating system and all applications on this computer at their existing revision levels— do not update them unless necessary to make them functional, and then be careful not to update applications to the point where they will not function with your "old" operating system.?Remove all non-essential software (games, chat apps, etc.) from the secure computer.?Run an anti-virus utility to be sure this computer is completely "clean."?Disconnect the secure computer from the internet (including WiFi).?When all else fails, this will be your only dependable computer!
4. Become comfortable using alternative communications channels.?For example, if there are problems with the cellular network, be prepared to use VoIP (Voice-over-Internet Protocol) or internet conferencing platforms.?If your local internet provider has a lengthy outage, be ready to utilize your cell phone as a WiFi "hot spot" or to go to a place with WiFi internet service.?Of course, if everything goes down, see #1 above!
5. Expect more frequent encounters with incompetent performance.?Whether it’s the Department of Motor Vehicles or your local grocery store, get used to system failures and workers who don't perform and/or don't care.?This won't help the situation, but it will help you preserve your sanity.

How Bad Can It Get?

Think "Soviet Union."?Hopefully, the US will snap to its senses and the pendulum will swing the other way.?But you need to be ready, in case there is no pendulum.