The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the World Economic and Energy Sectors

Abstract: Many people believe that the root of the current war between Russia and Ukraine, called by the Russian government a “special military operation,” could be found in November 2013, when the then-president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, suspended the signing of an association agreement with the European Union (EU), scheduled for signature on November 29. The suspension of the association agreement signed with the EU was due to the pressure from Russia, which offers Ukraine significant economic compensation, including gas supply at a reduced price. For many analysts, the root of the war between Russia and Ukraine is the NATO decision to expand its memberships toward the east after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. In their opinion, the war in Ukraine is between Russia and the US, acting this last country with the support of the EU and NATO, among other allied countries. The purpose is to weaken Russia's economic, industrial, military, and financial sectors as much as possible and any possible alliance with China, the real threat to the US hegemony. Ukraine territory is where this indirect war is fought between Russia and the US, thus avoiding a confrontation between these two countries with unpredictable consequences for international peace and security.?

Keywords: Ukrainian war; oil; gas, liquified gas; NATO; sanctions; the EU; the US; Russia.

?Historical background

????Many people believe that the origin of the current war between Russia and Ukraine, called by the Russian government a “special military operation,” began on the following date: November 24, 2013. On that day, the then-president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, suspended the signing of an association agreement with the European Union (EU), scheduled for November 29, 2013. The suspension of the signature of the Association Agreement with the EU was due to strong pressure from Russia, which offered him significant economic compensation such as a gas price reduction if the mentioned agreement was not signed. The announcement of the suspension of the Association Agreement with the EU catalyzes the population’s discontent, promoted and supported by the EU and the United States (US), especially in the country’s west, where Kyiv is located.

????On November 21, 2013, a series of pro-European demonstrations were carried out to support the signature of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU (Al Jazeera, 2013). On November 24, 2013, tens of thousands of Ukrainians demonstrated against the government in Kyiv’s Independence Square (Maidan) for its decision not to sign the mentioned agreement. After several months of protests and riots, on the night of February 19 and 20, 2014, President Yanukovych and the main opposition leaders (Vitali Klichkó, Arseni Yatseniuk, and Oleh Tyagnibok) agreed to a truce and the dismantling of the barricades previously placed in the capital square as a measure to contain the police forces. On February 21, 2014, after the so-called “Black Thursday” (February 20, 2014), in which more than 60 protesters died, an agreement was reached between the Ukrainian government and the opposition to advance the elections, form a transitional government, return to Ukraine’s Constitution of 2004 and curb violence (El Pais, 2014). Despite the agreement reached between the Ukrainian government and the opposition, the demonstration against the government continued, openly supported by the US and the EU. According to a video prepared by Oliver Stone entitled “Ukraine on Fire,” it is easy to confirm the involvement in the revolt of the Maidan square of Victoria Nuland, Assistant of the US Secretary of State, senator McCain, the US Ambassador to Ukraine in addition of several ONG that provide resources to the opposition groups.

????In the early hours of February 21-22, 2014, President Yanukovych left the capital without informing the parliament and disappeared in an unknown direction. On the morning of February 22, 2014, the Verkhovna Rada removed him from office for “abandonment of his constitutional functions” and took control of the country by voting, by constitutional majority, to return to the 2004 Constitution, agreed the day before. Only after this return to the parliamentary political system, instead of the presidential one, Oleksandr Turchinov assumed the presidency of the parliament, previous resignation in writing of the previous president. The next day, Turchinov was appointed acting prime minister to carry out the coordination of government tasks. On February 28, 2014, Yanukovych reappeared in Rostov-on-Don (Russia), denouncing an alleged “coup d'état” against his government (El Pais, 2014).

????On the eve of the Euromaidan riot, the Ukrainian population was virtually divided: 38% of Ukrainians supported a partnership with Russia, while 37.8% preferred one with the EU (Bonet, 2013). At the same time, 41% of Ukrainians considered that the priority for Ukraine should be to become an EU member, while 33% favored a customs union with Russia. The greatest support for integration with the EU was found in Kyiv (about 75%) and western Ukraine (81%); support was reduced to 56% in central Ukraine, 30% in the south and Crimea, and 18% in the east (Research & Branding Group, 2013).

????On May 25, 2014, one of the richest men in the country, Peto Poroshenko, declared victory in the presidential elections in Ukraine and accused pro-Russian separatists of preventing people from voting in the east of the country. On June 27, 2014, President Poroshenko signed the Association Agreement with the EU and warned Russia that Ukraine would not waver in its determination to become an EU and NATO member (Thompson, 2015).

????The Pro Russian separatists of the Donbas region, who rejected the new Ukrainian government elected after the coup d'état, went to war with the government, defending first its right to autonomy within Ukraine and later claiming its independence from Ukraine and its annexation to Russia.

The Minsk Agreements

????According to Rahman (2022), the Minsk Agreements ?(I and II) were signed in the context of the outbreak of civil war in the Donbas region between the Ukrainian army, including ultranationalist groups that became part of the army, and Pro-Russian separatists, which were against of the Kyiv government.

????The first Minsk Agreement, also known as the Minsk Protocol (Minks I Agreement), was signed on September 5, 2014, to secure the end of the conflict between the Ukrainian army and the Pro-Russian separatists of the Donbas region. The Minsk I Agreement was signed by Russia, Ukraine, and the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk representatives under the auspices of the Organization for?Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The pacifist aspirations of the agreement were repeatedly violated by Ukraine, according to Russia and the Ukrainian Pro-Russian separatists supported by Russia, according to the Ukrainian government, the US, the EU, and NATO countries.

????It is true that the Kyiv government has not paid much attention to addressing the issue of the Donbas region and has failed to initiate moves to implement the Minsk I Agreement due to the strong opposition of the ultranationalist groups inside the government and pro-western protesters. For this reason, between February 11 and 12, 2015, the Minsk II Agreement was negotiated between the countries involved in the Minsk I Agreement to stop the war in the Donbas region. A new immediate and complete ceasefire was approved, as well as the decision to open a dialogue between the Ukrainian government and the Pro-Russian separatists in order to find a political solution to their differences. The heads of state of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany held the Paris Summit on October 2, 2015, to agree on withdrawing weapons from both sides. Despite the signature of the Minsk II Agreement, ceasefire violations by both sides persisted.

????On October 19, 2016, a meeting in Berlin of the Normandy Quartet —sponsored by France and Germany to stop the fighting and resolve the Donbas conflict— ended without progress. On December 10, 2019, President Putin and the new Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, agreed in Paris to resume the peace process in the Donbas region. On December 29, 2019, Kyiv and Pro-Russian separatist representatives exchanged 200 prisoners.

?????It is important to note that an attempt by newly elected President Volodymyr Zelensky to implement the Minsk Agreements failed after large-scale ultra-nationalist protests broke out in the country opposing this government move. The protesters accused President Zelensky of “capitulation” to Russian pressure and threatened to force him to resign. The fear of losing popular support made president Zelensky adopt tougher rhetoric toward Russia, blaming it for the problems in the Donbas region instead of addressing the real issue affecting it and included in the Minsk II Agreement (Rahman, 2022). This change in the Zelensky government's position closed the door to the search for a political solution to the Donbas conflict and hardened Russia's position on the matter, ending with an invasion of the country.

The content of the Minsk Agreements

According to Scott (2022), the content of the Minsk Agreement I is the following:

1.?????Ensure an immediate bilateral ceasefire.

2.?????Ensure the monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE.

3.?????Decentralize power, including adopting the Ukrainian law of temporary self-governance for particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

4.?????Ensure the permanent monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border by the OSCE and create security zones.

5.?????Immediate release of all hostages and illegally detained persons.

6.?????Introduce a law preventing the prosecution and punishment of people in connection with the events in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

7.?????Continue the inclusive national dialogue.

8.?????To take measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Donbas.

9.?????To ensure early local elections in the self-governed regions.

10.?Withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine.

11.?Adopt a program of economic recovery in Donbas.

12.?Provide personal security for participants in the consultations.

????As can be easily seen, the Ukrainian government was responsible for fully implementing almost all of the main points included in the Minsk I Agreement. However, the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian Pro-Russian separatists failed in the full implementation of the Minsk I Agreement.

????According to the Unian Information Agency (2015), the content of the Minsk Agreement II adopted to ensure that all parties involved in the Ukrainian war fully fulfill their responsibilities is the following:

1.?????An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting at 0000 (Kyiv time) on February 15, 2015.

2.?????The withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances in order to create at least a 50-kilometer security zone for 100 mm or larger caliber artillery systems, a 70-kilometer security zone for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems, and a 140-kilometer security zone for the Tornado-S, Uragan, and Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems and Tochka (Tochka-U) tactical missile systems: - for the Ukrainian troops: [withdrawal] from the actual contact line; - for the military units of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces of Ukraine: [withdrawal] from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014. Withdrawal of heavy weapons shall begin no later than the second day of the ceasefire and end within 14 days. The OSCE will contribute to this process with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

3.?????Starting the first day of such withdrawal, ensuring the effective monitoring and verification by the OSCE of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons with the use of all necessary technical means, including satellites, UAVs, radar systems, etc.

4.?????On the first day after the withdrawal, to begin a dialogue on the procedures for holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian law and the Law of Ukraine entitled “On a temporary order of local government in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” as well as on the future regime of these areas, according to this Act. Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the specification of a territory subject to the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On temporary order of local government in some regions of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions” based on the line set in a Minsk memorandum of September 19, 2014.

5.?????To provide pardons and amnesties by the enactment of a law prohibiting prosecution and punishment of persons with regard to the events that took place in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

6.?????To ensure the release and exchange of hostages and illegally detained persons based on the principle of “all for all.” This process must be completed no later than the fifth day after the withdrawal.

7.?????To provide secure access, delivery, storage, and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy on the basis of an international mechanism.

8.?????Determination of the procedure for the full restoration of the socio-economic relations, including transactions of social payments, such as pensions and other payments (takings and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within Ukraine’s legal framework). To this end, Ukraine shall regain control over the segment of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers will probably be created.

9.?????Restoration of full control over the state border of Ukraine by Ukraine’s government throughout the whole conflict area should begin on the first day after the local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement (local elections in individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine, and constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on condition of implementation of paragraph 11 - with consultations and in agreement with the representatives of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

10.?The withdrawal of all foreign armed forces, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

11.?Conducting constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new Constitution coming into force by the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of these areas), as well as the adoption of the permanent legislation on the special status of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in accordance with the measures specified Notes, until the end of 2015.

12.?On the basis of the Law of Ukraine, “On temporary order of local government in individual areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” the questions regarding local elections shall be discussed and agreed upon with the individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE with the monitoring by the OSCE.

13.?To intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreement. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

????As can be easily seen, the Ukrainian government is solely responsible for implementing points 4,5,7,8,9,11, and 12.

????Since the signature of the Minsk II Agreement, the OSCE has overseen a fragile ceasefire that has at least frozen the conflict between the Ukrainian army and the Pro-Russian separatists. It is also important to note that the Minsk Agreements recognize a special status for the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces but under Ukraine’s control, respecting the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government has lost this possibility. According to the Minks Agreements, the Ukrainian authorities committed to amending the Constitution to grant extensive autonomy to Lugansk and Donetsk provinces and hold local elections. Now, these two provinces have declared their independence from Ukraine and expressed their wishes to become part of?Russia. On its part, Russia agreed to withdraw its troops and weapons from the area. According to Russian sources, Kyiv refused to fully implement these agreements and, with the support of ultranationalists and ultraright groups, continued the fight in the Donbas region.

????Without a doubt, Russia and Ukraine violate, in one way or another, the Minsk Agreements. According to Russia, the Ukrainian government refused to implement the Minsk Agreements and adopted a series of laws with a clear discriminatory character against the Ukrainian minority Russian-speaking population living in the Donbas region. Besides, the Ukraine government insists on their request to join the EU and NATO in a provocative decision. The Russian government considered the decision adopted by the Ukrainian government to become a NATO member a direct threat to Russian security. Why? According to the Russian government, if Ukraine becomes a NATO member, then US and NATO military forces could install missiles and nuclear warheads in several military bases within the Ukrainian territory and a short distance from the Russian borders. These military bases would target the main Russian cities, including Moscow, which can be reached in only a few minutes. For President Putin, this situation was unacceptable, and threat to adopt all necessary actions to avoid this from happening. The Ukrainian government, the US, the EU, and NATO countries ignored this warning, and the Russian invasion of the country occurred on February 24, 2022.

?The annexation of the peninsula of Crimea by Russia

?????Before 1954, the Crimea peninsula was a Russian territory taken from the Ottoman Empire. The Russian Empire gradually gained control over the Crimea peninsula due to the signature of peace treaties with the Ottoman Empire following the Russo-Turkish Wars of 1735–1739, 1768–1774, 1787–1792, and 1806–1812. At the end of the 18th century, the Crimea peninsula’s colonization was carried out by the Russian Prince Potemkin, who was granted absolute powers over the territory by the government of Tsarina Catherine “the Great.” The land was generously granted to the Russian nobility. In 1954, the USSR government decided to transfer the peninsula of Crime sovereignty from Russia to Ukraine. At that time, Russia and Ukraine were parties of the USSR.

????But then, why the Russian government decides to invade the Crimea peninsula in 2014? After the collapse of the USSR, the new Ukrainian and Russian governments agreed to allow the Russian army to use the important naval base of Sevastopol for a long period. In addition to the unrest in Kyiv at the end of 2013, pro-Russian militants and supporters of Ukraine unity also met in the Simferopol streets. According to western and Ukrainian public sources, camouflaged Russian soldiers and espionage agents penetrated Crimea to prepare for the possible annexation of the peninsula to Russia due to the intention of the Ukrainian government to become a NATO member. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, then it was expected that the government would end the agreement reached with the Russian government to allow the Russian naval forces to use the Sevastopol naval base. If this happens, Russia will lose its current presence in this important area, which is unacceptable to the Russian government.

????On March 1, 2014, after the “coup d’état” in Kyiv, the Russian parliament approved Russian President Vladimir Putin’s request to send armed forces to Crimea, and thousands of Russian-speaking soldiers in plain uniforms entered the peninsula. Two weeks later, Russia finalized its annexation of Crimea through a referendum that Ukraine, the US, the EU, NATO members, and most US allies deemed illegitimate. In other words, the Ukrainian government, the US, the EU, and NATO members, among other countries, rejected the referendum’s outcome and accused the Russian government of supporting a fraudulent campaign. Two days later, President Putin signed the Crimea peninsula’s incorporation into the Russian Federation’s territory. The US, the EU, and NATO countries, as well as other western countries, froze their collaboration with Russia and agreed to impose severe economic, financial, military, and political sanctions against Russia. The annexation of Crimea by Russia was strongly condemned by the US, the EU, NATO members, and other western countries, who decided to adopt even more severe and drastic political, economic, financial, and military sanctions against Russia. As a result of the Crimea annexation by Russia and the sanctions adopted by the US, the EU, NATO members, and other western countries against Russia, the tensions between them increased dangerously, cutting all relationships between Russia, the US, the EU, NATO members, and other western countries. This tension continued to increase significantly, resulting in the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

????Finally, it is important to stress the following: From April-May 2014, the events in Crimea were reproduced in the Ukrainian region of Donbas. In May, pro-Russian separatist groups in Donetsk and Lugansk provinces proclaimed themselves “People's Republics" and demanded the independence of Ukraine and integration into the Russian Federation.

????Eastern Ukraine thus became the scene of a new war in Europe between pro-Russian separatists, with political and military support from Moscow, and the Ukrainian government, including ultranationalist and ultraright military forces incorporated into the Ukrainian army, supported by the US, the EU, NATO members, and other western countries. This war lasted eight years and was carried out mainly in the Donbas region until February 24, 2022, with the beginning of an open war between Russia, supported by the Pro-Russian separatists on the one hand, and the Ukrainian government, supported by the US, the EU, NATO members and other US allies on the other.

NATO expansion to the east. The root of the current war between Russia and Ukraine

????Is the position of the Ukrainian government regarding the Donbas conflict the real root of the current war between Russia and Ukraine? For many analysts, the answer is no. For these analysts, the war in Ukraine is between Russia, supported by the pro-Russian separatists, on the one hand, and the US, supported by the EU, and NATO members, among other countries under the US influence, on the other. Ukraine is the territory where the indirect military confrontation between Russia and the US materializes, avoiding a direct confrontation, with unpredictable consequences for the European region and international peace and security. The sanctions adopted by the US, the EU, NATO members, and other US allies against Russia have the purpose of forcing Russia to increase its military budget to support this war, replace destroyed military hardware, limit the resources to strengthen the Russian military sector, and weakness the Russian economy as much as possible. The goal is to weaken Russia as much as possible through a long list of economic sanctions to affect its economic, financial, and military sectors. ?

????For many analysts, the root of the war between Russia and Ukraine can be found in the NATO decision, promoted by the US, to expand its memberships toward the east after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Why? It is well known that the Second World War (1939-1945) destroyed almost all of Europe, Russia, China, and Japan, among other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, and divided the world into three blocks. One block was under US control, another under Soviet control, and a third one included countries outside the two previous blocks. Europe was divided by an imaginary border Winston Churchill called the “iron curtain.” On April 4, 1949, in the context of the Cold War, the US sat down with its allies to try to stop what they called the “Soviet Union expansion,” giving birth to the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO), creating a powerful military organization[1] to confront the USSR. To neutralize NATO activities, the USSR and other socialist countries created the Warsaw Pact on May 14, 1955[2]. The Warsaw Pact was dissolved in 1989.

??????But if NATO was created to stop Soviet Union expansion and this country does not exist anymore, why is NATO still alive? NATO is an extension of the armed wing of the US that was created to help that country prevent Soviet expansion in Europe and thus be able to concentrate its military forces on preventing Soviet expansion to other countries and regions. With the disappearance of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, NATO was left without a visible enemy, significantly weakening it. To revive NATO, the US began to use it for other purposes, such as the war in the Balkans, the invasion of Iraq, the war in Libya, and the occupation of Afghanistan. The participation of NATO in these wars clearly violates the objectives for which that organization was created in 1949. Now NATO has assigned the task of containing the so-called “Russia expansion.”

The expansion of NATO before the fall of the USSR

??????The first NATO expansion, following the US policy in the so-called “Cold War,” was implemented three years after its Constitution to incorporate Greece and Türkiye, reinforcing the southern flank of the Alliance. In 1955, after years of deliberations, the Federal Republic of Germany became the 15th member of NATO. It was not an easy accession, with a population opposed to any form of rearmament. Spain was the last country to join NATO before the USSR's collapse. As can be easily seen, at that time, NATO expansion was very limited, and none of its members, old and new, had borders with the USSR.

The expansion of NATO after the fall of the USSR

????The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 ended the Cold War, changed NATO expansion policy, and brought with it the first wave of accessions from Eastern European countries and, according to many analysts, the root of the current war in Ukraine. Why? In the early 1990s, the US administration of George H.W. Bush repeatedly assured the new Russian government that Washington would not seek to extend NATO to Eastern Europe, Central Asia, or the Caucasus. “If the United States maintains its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO, not one inch of NATO's current military jurisdiction will extend in an easterly direction.”

????As George Kennan, the original architect of US foreign policy during the Cold War, said, “expanding NATO would be the most fateful mistake of US policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” However, in a clear violation of the assurance given to the USSR/Russia and the recommendations of US diplomatics and politicians, 14 countries have become NATO members, most in Eastern Europe, in the last 22 years. Despite the assurance given to the USSR/Russia that NATO would not expand to Eastern Europe, the 1995 NATO Enlargement Study recommended inviting the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland to start talks at the 1997 Madrid Summit about a possible NATO membership of these three countries. They became the first former Warsaw Pact members to join NATO two years later.

????After the experience with these three countries and the weak response of Russia to this first NATO move to the east, the organization made another move and created the Accession Action Plan (MAP) in 1999 to invite more countries to become members of the organization. MAP’s objective was to advise candidates to join NATO and help them meet the organization’s requirements. According to the NATO treaty, participating in the MAP does not bind the Alliance to accept the new member, who must be admitted unanimously. In 2003, ignoring the assurance given to USSR/Russia mentioned above, seven other countries in the former Soviet orbit, some of them with borders with Russia, staged the largest enlargement in NATO history for the first time. These countries are Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. In 2009, Albania and Croatia also joined as NATO members. The last countries to join NATO were Montenegro, in 2017 and North Macedonia, in 2020. Bosnia and Herzegovina have participated in MAP since 2010, and after two decades, the country is still waiting for the invitation to become a NATO member. After this large NATO expansion, which includes some members with borders with Russia, the threat of a possible military confrontation between NATO and Russia increased significantly. Incorporating Sweden and Finland into the Alliance will increase the tension with Russia even further.

????Finally, it is important to note the following: In line with the decision of NATO to move to the east following the US desire, at the 2008 NATO summit, several of its members applauded the interest of Ukraine and Georgia in becoming members of the Alliance. However, no concrete accession plan was adopted. Why? The reason for this conservative approach was that some NATO members feared a strong Russian reaction to a new expansionist move by the Alliance near its borders, based on the continued warning statement of the Russian government to the Alliance not to continue its expansion policy to the east. The fear of these NATO members materialized in August 2008 in a war between Russia and Georgia and the annexation by Russia of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two secessionist statelets that broke away from Georgia in 1990, the annexation of the Crimea peninsula in March 2014, and the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

?The war between Russia and Ukraine?

????From January-April 2021, and after the failure of the implementation of the Minks Agreements, Russia became convinced that the Ukrainian government would continue with its intention to become a NATO member and began moving a large number of troops to its borders with Ukraine and to the Crimean peninsula to stop that this happens. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg considered this Russian military deployment as the largest accumulation of Russian troops since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

????On August 23, 2021, a total of 46 states and organizations, the majority of which were NATO members, signed the Crimean Platform in Kyiv, in which the west demanded that Russia return the peninsula of Crimea to Ukraine. The Russian government rejected the request. As a result, the tension between the US, NATO members, and the EU on the one hand and Russia on the other increased to a level not seen since the end of the Cold War.

????On December 3, 2021, the US believed that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine, and the invasion would occur "in early 2022," according to The Washington Post. The US declared that Russia was deploying near the Ukrainian border up to 175,000 soldiers to carry out its plan to invade Ukraine. On December 16, 2021, the EU threatened Russia with drastic sanctions if it invaded Ukraine. On January 11 and 12, 2022, a meeting between the US and Russia representatives, on January 11 in Geneva (Switzerland) and another held the following day between NATO and Russia ended without progress. After these meetings, the Russian government reports the start of military maneuvers in southern Russia, the Caucasus, and Crimea. Other military maneuvers were scheduled to be carried out in Belarus near the border with Ukraine.

????Despite several Russian warnings to the Ukraine government to solve the Donbas conflict based on the Minsk Agreements and not to insist on its intention to join NATO, the Ukrainian government reiterated its decision to become a NATO member. After this declaration, the Russian government immediately declared that it would not tolerate it and reinforced the deployment of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, Belarus, and the Black Sea. After the last warning, ignored by the Ukrainian government, the US, the EU, and NATO members, Russia decided to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on the world economy and energy sectors

????Without a doubt, Ukraine’s war is a very serious conflict because several nuclear-weapon states are involved in one way or another in this fight for the first time since 1945, including the two countries with the biggest nuclear-weapon arsenals, Russia and the US. If the Ukraine war worsens, and there are no indications that this will not happen, then the impact on the world economy and the energy sectors will have a negative impact not only on the Russian economy but on the economy of the countries that promote the application of sanctions against Russia, among others. If this situation deteriorates further, it will raise the price of gas and oil significantly, deepening the current economy and energy crisis in the US and the EU, the promoters of the sanctions against Russia, including an oil cut-off from Russia and the reduction of the EU gas imports from Russia. It will also expose the rest of the world to a shortage of oil and gas supply and break the delicate balance between the oil and gas supply and demand. Besides, it is expected that a shortage of other basic products will affect many countries in all regions and that the level of inflation will continue to increase in the US, the EU, Russia, and many other countries worldwide.

????Is the war in Ukraine the only one responsible for the current world economy and energy crisis? The answer to this question is certainly no. Why? Trujillo (2022) states that the world is experiencing an economic and energy crisis without precedent in recent history. But this economic and energy crisis did not begin with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, as some US, NATO, and EU politicians have repeatedly said. The world has been experiencing a considerable increase in energy and other basic product prices and a shortage of supply since the second tranche of 2021, well before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

????Of course, an aggressive foreign policy promoted by the current US administration, supported by the EU, NATO members, and other western countries, and the indiscriminate use of sanctions against Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and China, among others, are affecting the oil and gas supplies and increasing other basic product prices in many countries, including the countries that adopted the sanctions.

This energy crisis has very clear causes. These are some of them:

·????????Natural causes. Disastrous climatic events have marked the pandemic crisis recently, affecting energy production and storage worldwide. The 2020 winter in Europe, Russia, and Asia were extremely long and cold, depleting existing reserves of some energy sources, such as gas. The cold winter of 2021 and the lack of wind for electricity generation increased several countries' gas consumption significantly, reducing gas reserves in many countries, particularly in the EU. Added to this was a practically windless summer, which was a disaster in energy production for many countries where wind energy plays a key role, as the case of the UK, where wind energy has grown more than 715% in the last decade[3], among other countries. All this situation has increased the EU's dependency on gas, which has seen its production reduced and consumption increased due to extreme cold weather. As a result, the EU suffered sharp increases in energy prices due to increased demand before the war in Ukraine (Sanhueza, 2022). Major accidents like bursting pipelines and natural calamities like volcanic eruptions, floods, and earthquakes can also cause power supply interruptions. The huge gap between energy supply and demand increased the price of oil, gas, and other basic products, leading to inflation, and negatively impacting the US and the EU economies, among other countries' economies.

·????????The COVD-19 pandemic: According to Sanhueza (2022), the pandemic, especially in its first phase, led the world economy to a global crisis. The crisis in many countries led to a production stoppage, destroying supply chains worldwide, producing a drastic decrease in energy demand and a global economic slowdown. This situation, never seen before in the globalized world, near-paralyzed the world economy and increased energy prices, paralyzing energy production and provoking a drastic drop in energy demand in many countries, with records never seen before. In April 2020, the price of a barrel of oil reached around US$11.26[4]; currently, it is around US$100[5]. This increase in the oil price has rocketed gasoline and diesel prices in the EU and the US, among other countries, to a level not seen in the last ten o more years. The increase in gasoline and diesel prices had increased the price of agriculture and industrial products, among other basic products, affecting the living standards of millions of people worldwide, including in the US and the EU. Many hydrocarbon industries decided to curb energy extraction to weigh the losses caused by the drop in energy demand, which generated a resounding drop in investments in this sector. In the year 2020, investment in the fossil fuel sector decreased by around 20%[6]. After the first lockdowns, the economy recovered faster than expected, increasing the energy demand considerably, surpassing the existing supply, and generating the first energy deficits. This energy deficit forced many countries to power cuts (blackouts), making visible for the first time the new reality of the energy situation at the world level.

·????????War and conflicts: Wars between countries can also hamper energy supply, especially if they involve Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, or other important energy suppliers. That is what happened during the 1990 Gulf War, when the price of oil peaked, causing global shortages and creating a huge problem for energy consumers. The Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia have further affected many countries' electricity and gas bills, with high energy prices, considering that Russia is, until today, the main exporter of gas to the EU (52,3% in 2020) and an important oil and gas supplier at world level. As a result of the Ukrainian war, the US, the EU, and NATO members, among other western countries, adopted several additional packages of economic, financial, political, and military sanctions against Russia, intending to affect key elements of the main sectors of the Russian economy. Countries imposing these sanctions expect to force Russia to stop the war in Ukraine, weaken its economy and military sectors, isolate the country by making it difficult to trade with other countries, particularly oil and gas trade, and weaken the rubble as much as possible. The US, the EU, and NATO politicians were convinced that the impact of these sanctions would not only stop the war in Ukrania but would put Russia on its knees, isolate Russia, and provoke an internal revolt that would remove President Putin from power. It appears that this is not happening.

·????????Delay in commissioning of power plants: In some countries, there is a significant delay in the commissioning of new power plants that can bridge the gap between energy demand and supply. The result is that old power plants are put under great stress to meet the daily demand for energy. When supply does not match demand, a loss of load and failure occurs,

·????????Poor infrastructure: Aging infrastructure of power generation equipment is another reason for power shortages. Most power-producing companies still use outdated equipment that restricts power production, limiting the electricity supply.

????Are the sanctions working? Many analysts have said no, sanctions are not working as expected. Worse, they seriously affect the promoters of these sanctions and, consequently, many other countries. US Senator Dick Black for Virginia, in an intervention at the Schiller Institute on the Ukraine war, said:

a)?????The rubble is now stronger than any other currency.

b)?????Russia’s oil and gas export income is higher than before the beginning of the Ukraine war, increasing its monetary reserves significantly. On the contrary, the EU is paying higher prices for its oil and gas import from the US and other countries and in much lower quantities[7].

c)?????The inflation rate in Russia reached 15% but began to decrease, while the inflation in the US and the EU continued increasing, reaching around 9% in the first part of 2022, and is expected to increase further, affecting the US, the EU, and other countries economies very seriously.

d)?????Instead of isolating Russia from the global market, its trading income is now US$1,000 million per day with a commercial surplus of US$250,000 million, double the commercial surplus it registered the year before the Ukraine war. Russia is strengthening commercial ties with China, India, South Africa, Iran, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia and is selling its oil and gas to several of them.

e)?????The popularity of President Putin is now 83% within the country, greater than any other politician in western countries[8].

f)??????Despite the negative impact of the sanctions adopted by the US, the EU, and other western countries, Russia has no shortage of food, energy, heating, and electricity.

????As expected, President Putin has responded to his country’s sanctions by cutting or limiting the export of gas and oil to a select group of EU countries and imposing the rubles as the currency to pay for the oil and gas supplies. Russia is also limiting the gas supply to Germany, creating a very serious situation in this country for the first time in the last 30 years. Due to the high dependence of several EU countries on Russian oil and gas, prices have skyrocketed, and the EU has been forced to accept the continuing supply of oil and gas from Russia to a limited number of EU countries. Due to the EU and US sanctions against Russia, the entire supply chain has been affected, forcing some EU countries to introduce several measures to avoid a complete suspension of fuel supply from Russia, particularly gas. All this has significantly aggravated the EU and the US energy crisis. Energy bills have even doubled for electricity and gas in several EU countries, seriously affecting the domestic economy of hundreds of thousands of families who see their energy bills increase significantly. The same thing is happening in the US, where gasoline and diesel prices have increased to their highest level during the last decades.

????Contrary to what was expected, Russia not only stopped supplying oil and gas to some EU countries but has increased the supply of these two energy sources to other countries in Asia, particularly China and India, at a reasonable price but below the market price. This movement allowed Russia to overcome the sanctions adopted by the US, the EU, and other western countries and to increase Russia’s financial reserves faster than before the sanctions. To mention only an example, Russia is receiving daily around US$600 million due to oil export and around US$20,000 million monthly due to gas export, an amount that is higher than the income received from the oil and gas export to the EU before the beginning of the Ukrainian war. On the contrary, the EU receives less oil and gas than before but at a higher price and has been forced to adopt measures to reduce oil and gas consumption in all EU countries. These measures create a very serious situation in countries such as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.

????Due to the lack of energy, or the increase in their prices, the world economy slowly recovering from the effects of the pandemic is again facing an economic and energy crisis, with factories worldwide closing down or reducing their production due to rising production costs or simply because of a lack of energy supplies to keep it going or due to lack of raw materials and fertilizers, among other products. This reality puts even more pressure on current distribution chains that are highly damaged due to the pandemic and higher energy prices, increasing transportation costs significantly. That also generates shortages of many basic products and an increase in prices, with historical records of inflation worldwide. In the case of the US, inflation reached its highest level in 39 years. Latin America, for its part, one of the regions most affected by the increase in the cost of living, reached an inflationary level of more than 9% in 2021[9]. In the EU, inflation is pushing many families to reduce their expenses, affecting purchasing basic products and delaying the payment of their energy bills.????

Political, economic, and military tensions between Russia, the US, NATO, the EU, and other western countries

????The current economic and energy crisis has not only exacerbated existing conflicts but has been the trigger for some of them[10]. From the Kazakhstan rebellion, which was triggered by the rise in fuel prices, to the current tensions between Russia, the US, the EU, NATO members, and other western countries due to the Crimea annexation by Russia and the war in Ukraine, the economic and energy crisis is now affecting all other economic sectors not only in the countries under sanctions but also to those that adopted them, some of them very seriously. It is a reality that in the middle of an energy and economic crisis, each country, group of countries, or even region fight to ensure its own energy supply, an objective considered vital and for which many powerful countries are willing to use military means.

????It is well-known that in a war, the one who comes out better is the one who is far away. While the EU suffers the consequences of stopping Russia’s energy suppliers, the US sees some of its energy exports set records on the other side of the Atlantic. The US is the clear winner of the current energy crisis, becoming the largest exporter of liquified natural gas, reaching historical records. The relationship between the EU and the US was not the best in recent years, particularly during the Trump administration. However, this has changed completely due to the change in the US administration and the war in Ukraine. Being the EU’s best friend generates many benefits. Last March, the European Commission reaffirmed its strategic cooperation with the US in energy matters and decided to buy not less than 15,000 million cubic meters of liquified natural gas from the US. It is expected that by 2030 the EU will buy around 50,000 billion cubic meters, tripling US liquefied natural gas exports to the EU but at a higher price, In addition to acquiring a high amount of liquified natural gas from the US to replace part of the gas supply by Russia, this strategic cooperation involves sharing technologies, working with similar private investors, and incentivizing joint agreements. In an almost antagonistic way to how the EU imposes sanctions on Russia, they have also reached agreements with the US (Pérez, 2022). However, this energy cooperation with the US will represent a high cost for the EU because they will have to buy liquified natural gas at a higher price than the price of gas supplied by Russia.

????The current energy crisis benefits the US energy sector, which has grown the most recently. In 2022, US energy funds have grown by 32%. The US is exporting energy like never before, but some voices like Senator Mitch McConnel warn of the need for domestic consumption. That is why he requests that energy production being one of the priorities of the Biden administration for 2023. He believes energy should be at the center of government attention in 2023. The EU needs US support to meet the energy demand, and the US is delighted with this situation. The war in Ukraine has allowed the US to impose its energy policy on the EU by removing Russia from the EU energy market and becoming the main gas supplier, although at a higher price than the one offered by Russia before the Ukrainian war.

????Another geopolitical phenomenon that has added to the possibility of a political, economic, and military confrontation between the most powerful military and economic countries is the so-called "decoupling" process or separation between the main military and economic powers. This process began during the trade war between the US and China promoted by the Trump administration, but due to new events, it is spreading rapidly to Russia to isolate the country at the world level. A new trend in world trade could end the globalization process, not only due to the effects of the pandemic but also due to the confrontation between Russia, the US, and the EU, and between the two great powers, China and the US (Sanhueza, 2022).????

????According to the BP Statistical report Review of World Energy 2021, the EU imported, in 2020, a total of 57.5 million tons of oil from Russia, which represented 38.9% of all oil imports made by the region during that year, followed by oil imports from the US with 24.6 million tons of oil or 16.3% of the total. The amount of oil imported from the US accounted for less than half of Russian oil imports during that year. The EU wishes to cut oil supply from Russia at the end of 2022, except for limited EU countries, due to their current high Russian oil dependency

?????Concerning natural gas, the report mentioned above indicated that Russia supplied the EU, in 2020, with a total of 167.7 billion cubic meters through the gas pipelines connecting Europe with Russia, satisfying 37.5% of the gas needs in 2020. In the case of imports of liquified natural gas by the EU, the same report showed that the region imported from Russia in 2020 a total of 17.2 billion cubic meters, representing 14.8% of the total. In 2020, the total gas supply from Russia to the EU reached 51.1%.

????Based on the data included in the report mentioned above, the following can be stated: The EU’s current needs for gas and oil cannot be met in the short and medium-term by using other suppliers. Why? Because oil and gas production from other regions would not be sufficient to compensate for the EU’s gas and oil imported from Russia even at higher prices. Besides, this supply shortage could send oil and gas prices skyrocketing with a negative impact on the economy of several EU countries. For example, it is estimated that the price of a barrel of oil in this situation could reach US$150 in 2022. If the war in Ukraine does not stop in the coming months, a 30% increase in the gas price in the EU is expected, and an increase in inflation not only in Russia but in the US and the EU as well.

????The alarms are beginning to sound in several countries about a shortage of energy sources, an increase in inflation, and a possible economic recession. Although the situation is more or less under control, there is a fear that the situation could deteriorate even further, getting out of control and provoking a recession in several countries. As a result of the sanctions adopted by the US and the EU against Russia, and Russia’s reaction to these sanctions, Germany and Austria, among other European countries, are returning to coal for electricity generation. These countries fear a possible shortening of energy supply in the coming months, problems finding new energy suppliers, and difficulties in increasing their current oil and gas reserves. To prevent the situation from getting complicated in these countries, the respective governments have adopted measures to ration the use of gas during the coming months.

????It is important to note that EU oil and gas reserves are somehow low[11], and the EU has difficulty finding new oil and gas suppliers at a reasonable price. The US, which promised the supply of a high percentage of the oil and gas cut off from Russia, has said that it can not supply what was promised due to a lack of sufficient capacity, an increase in domestic demand, and a shortage of supply increasing gasoline and diesel prices[12]. According to different reports, the EU has said that the region will have enough oil and gas reserves to cover the region’s needs during the next winter[13]. However, due to maintenance work to be carried out in Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, some governments are recommending to their industries and citizens to reduce oil and gas consumption as much as possible during the coming months. Germany has increased the energy alarm level and declared gas a “scarce resource.” The government has reduced the intensity of the street lights and asked the German industry and their citizens to reduce gas consumption as much as possible.

????Now, the question to be answered is what will happen next winter and the one after that if the war in Ukraine continues? According to NATO Secretary-General, the war in Ukraine could last several months or even years, during which the sanctions against Russia will be in force. To ensure the implementation of these sanctions avoiding its negative impact on the economy of several EU countries, the European Commission presented its plan to cut off all Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and to accelerate its transition to renewable energy use. Some of the measures to be implemented to accelerate the EU transition to renewable energy use are the following:

·????????The EU is recommending to its members reduce the current consumption of energy sources as much as they can. Changes in behavior in the consumption of energy sources could reduce the demand for gas and oil by 5% in the short term. A total of €11,000 million is expected to be saved by implementing by all EU members the recommendations prepared by the European Commission.

·????????Double photovoltaic installations by 2025 and reduce administrative obstacles to speed up procedures for implementing projects that promote solar and wind energy use.

·????????Impose solar roofs for public and commercial buildings by 2025 and new residential buildings by 2029. The EU government expects to require €210 billion of investments by 2027 and €300 billion by 2030, on top of those already needed to meet the bloc's 2030 climate target. The investments include €86,000 million for the development of renewable energies and €27,000 million for hydrogen infrastructure, €29,000 million for electricity networks, and €56,000 million for energy savings and heat pumps. Ultimately, these investments are expected to reduce the import of fossil fuels from Europe in the coming years.

·????????A higher legally binding target for 45% of the EU’s energy to come from renewable sources by 2030, instead of its current proposal of 40%.

·????????Some fossil fuel infrastructure investment would require €10 billion for a dozen gas and liquefied natural gas projects and up to €2 billion for oil, mainly targeting Central and Eastern European countries. These countries are landlocked and thus lack access to non-Russian oil and gas supplies (La diariamundo, 2022).

????Another problem that will affect the EU, the US, and other countries, if the war in Ukraine continues for a long period is a rise in inflation, which could be even greater than the level reached in recent months. This situation would affect not only countries under sanctions but all EU countries and the pockets of their citizens, the US, and many other countries worldwide. In addition, if the war in Ukraine continues over time and the sanctions against Russia stay, it is expected not to have a rapid replenishment of the EU gas and oil reserves during the coming months. If technical problems arise in a gas production platform off the coast of Norway or in the US[14], and if the demand for gas and oil increases again in Asia, then all the elements will be present to further complicate the energy situation in Europe in the short and medium-term.

????Of course, the EU could use liquified natural gas to replenish its gas reserves, although it is unknown at what price or potential suppliers will be since most oil and gas supplies are linked to long-term contracts. In any case, the oil and gas prices to be paid by the EU during the coming years will be greater than the price paid to Russia for the same oil and gas supplies. Besides, the EU has insufficient liquified natural gas facilities to process all the natural gas it needs to satisfy the expected demand. That is a problem that will affect the level of gas supply to several EU countries.

????Undoubtedly, the global energy landscape, particularly in the EU, is quite complex due to the post-coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the package of sanctions adopted against Russia and other countries. According to several sources, before the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the EU economy and consumers were already suffering from high energy prices. This situation worsened after the beginning of this war, increasing the social unrest in many EU members.

????Finally, the application of sanctions against Russia instead of keeping the door open for a political and diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine will only worsen the situation on the battlefield but the economic and energy crisis in this country, in the EU, in the US, and other countries worldwide, including of course Russia. In addition to seriously affecting world trade in the post-coronavirus pandemic, it will put in danger peace, security, and regional and international stability, particularly trade stability and security of the chain supply, increasing hunger and social unrest in several countries.

????The political, economic, financial, and military sanctions adopted by the US, the EU, NATO members, and other western countries against Russia are, without a doubt, affecting Russia, but to a lesser extent than expected, and also to the countries that adopted them significantly. In addition, the sanctions adopted against Russia due to the war in Ukraine have not stopped this war. On the contrary, the Russian troops are uninterruptedly continuing their advance through the south and east of Ukraine. They are occupying more and more territory in the Donbas region, displacing more and more civilians from their cities and towns, increasing the number of deaths within the Ukrainian army at an alarming rate and also among civilians, causing colossal destruction of the country’s infrastructure.

????The statements made by the US, the EU, and NATO representatives trusting a Ukrainian military victory on the battlefield are not only very dangerous but, in the opinion of many analysts, very far from what is happening on the battlefield. The following data from Senator Dick Black for Virginia in an intervention at the Schiller Institute confirm what has been said above. In his interview expressed the following:

·????????The stock of ammunition and equipment of Russian origin in the hands of the Ukrainian army is running out, and the shipments of these items from NATO countries are now very limited[15].

·????????Russia fires 50,000 shells daily, ten times more than the Ukrainian army fires in the same period.

·????????The casualties of the Ukrainian army are 1,000 per day, of which 200 are dead soldiers. The casualty rate has doubled in just three weeks. The US lost 60,000 soldiers in ten years in the Vietnam war, equivalent to an average of 6,000 soldiers per year. The Ukrainian army loses 6,000 soldiers per month, 12 times higher than the US casualty rate in the Vietnam war. Ukraine, with a much smaller population, around 43 million, almost five times less than the US population, could face difficulty soon in replacing the number of casualties within the army, which is 60 times greater than the number of casualties reported by the US during the Vietnam war.

????It will be very difficult for the Ukrainian government to maintain that pace of the war, more so if it lasts a long time as the Secretary-General of NATO has predicted, with the until now limited military and financial support from the US and the EU, and NATO members. If the US, leading NATO military forces, is not willing to enter the war in Ukraine directly, and this scenario is out of all US and NATO plans, then it is almost impossible for the Ukrainian army alone to win this war militarily and recover the territory now under Russian control by its military forces. The key issue here is not whether Ukraine will win the war militarily, which in the opinion of many analysts will not, but the price the Ukrainian government is willing to pay to stop the war and to reach a lasting peace. The main goal is to find how to stop the war and the death of more people, including soldiers of both sides, the destruction of the country’s basic infrastructure before it is too late, and to negotiate a political and diplomatic solution to this conflict between the parties directly and indirectly involved to avoid another war in the country and region.

?References

- Black, Dick (2022). Senator for Virginia in the US Congress. Intervention at the Schiller Institute. 2022.

-Bonet, Pilar (29 de noviembre de 2013). Las dos Ucranias frente a Europa. El País. Archivado desde el original el 30 de noviembre de 2013.

- La Unión Europea presentó su plan para cortar su dependencia de los hidrocarburos rusos (2022). Ladiariamundo. 2022.

-La inflación azota a Latinoamérica y reaviva los fantasmas de viejas crisis – Los Angeles Times (latimes.com).

-LaSexta.com (2022). ?Cuántos soldados y qué armamento tienen Ucrania y Rusia? 2011.

-Los rebeldes toman el Parlamento y la sede de la Presidencia de Ucrania. Público, 22 de febrero de 2014.

-Pérez, Enrique (2022). La crisis energética por la guerra de Ucrania ya tiene un claro ganador: Estados Unidos. Xataka, 2022.

-Research & Branding Group (2013). Euromaydan. 10 de diciembre de 2013. Archivado desde el original el 13 de diciembre de 2013

-Sanhueza, María (2022). La actual crisis energética mundial y las razones que se esconden tras ella. Future Magazine. 2022.

-Scott, Danni (2022). PREVENTING WAR What is the Minsk agreement? The U.S, Sun, 2022.

-Stone, Oliver. Ukraine on Fire (video).

-The Covid-19 crisis is causing the biggest fall in global energy investment in history – News – IEA

-Thompson, Nick (2015). Cronología de la crisis en Ucrania: todo lo que debes saber sobre el conflicto. CNN Espa?ol. 2015.

-Trujillo, Manual (2022). Las causas de la crisis energética actual y como reducir el precio de la factura. Periódico Digital. 2022.

-Ukraine drops EU plans and looks to Russia. Al Jazeera. 21 de noviembre de 2013.

-Una grave sequía amenaza producción de energía y agricultura en Brasil – France 24.

- Unian information agency (2015). Minsk Agreement: Full text in English. https://www.unian.info/politics/1043394-minsk-agreement-full-text-in-english.html2015

-Wind energy in the UK – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk).

-WTI Crude Oil Prices – 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends2). https://oilprice.com/

-Yanukóvich niega desde Rusia legitimidad al Parlamento ucranio. El País, 28 de febrero de 2014.

?[1] Twelve countries signed the Washington Treaty (NATO). These countries are the US, Canada, Belgium, Denmark, France, Holland, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, UK, and Portugal). None of these initial countries have borders with the USSR. Today NATO has several countries with borders with Russia, and this number will increase after the incorporation of Sweden and Finland in the coming months.

[2] Eight countries signed the Warsaw Pact. These countries are Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, German Democratic Republic, Romania, and the USSR. Albania left the Warsaw Pact in 1961, and China renounced its Observer status the same year.

[3] See Wind energy in the UK – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

[4] See WTI Crude Oil Prices – 10 Year Daily Chart | MacroTrends2) https://oilprice.com/

[5] According to US sources, the oil price could increase up to US$150 or US$180 by the end of 2022.

[6] See The Covid-19 crisis is causing the biggest fall in global energy investment in history – News – IEA

[7] That situation is forcing some EU countries to begin the use of coal for electricity generation due to a lack of sufficient oil and gas available for this specific purpose. Some of these countries are also adopting strict measures to reduce energy consumption by closing industries or reducing their production, using less nitrogen and other fertilizers in animal and agriculture farms, and increasing their oil and gas reserves as soon as possible.

[8] Leaders in Italy, Estonia, and the UK resigned due to the economic situation of these countries caused by the Ukrainian war.

[9] See La inflación azota a Latinoamérica y reaviva los fantasmas de viejas crisis – Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

[10] The Ecuadorian government faced an internal revolt due to an increase in oil prices, which forced the government to eliminate the increase adopted. In Sri Lanka, the increase in energy bills provoked a revolt of the population against the government ending with the overthrow of the government and the President. Leaders in Italy, Estonia, and the UK were forced to resign due to the economic and energy crisis affecting their countries

[11] In Germany, the gas reserves are around 30% of the total. The government expects to increase its gas reserves up to 90% in November 2022.

[12] The US government decided to remove 180 million barrels of oil from its strategic oil reserves (one million barrels per day for six months) in order to reduce the price of gasoline and diesel in the country. This decision also has an economic background since the US would sell its oil strategic reserves at a high price on the world market. But according to the president of the US Federal Reserve, this government decision was a mistake because not only has it not lowered the prices of gasoline and diesel, but it has also endangered the level of the country's strategic oil reserves.

[13] The European Commission will submit a proposal to rationalize gas consumption in all EU countries during the coming months.

[14] A liquified natural gas facility in the US has to be shut down due to a fire reported, reducing the US export capacity for several months. That situation will affect the liquified natural gas export from the US to the EU, increasing the energy crisis in the region.

[15] Russia is currently the country with the second greatest military power in the world, with 850,000 active soldiers (711,000 in the Russian Army), according to the list of Global Firepower (2022). A power four times greater than that of Ukraine, in 22nd place on the same list, and which 200,000 troops. To this contingent must be added the military in reserve. In this regard, Ukraine has 250,000 reservists, and Russia has almost 1,700,000 reservists. So, in sum, Russia would quintuple Ukraine's military potential, with 2.5 million troops active and in reserves, compared to Ukraine's 450,000 active and in reserves. If we look at the aircraft, Russia has 4,173 compared to only 318 in Ukraine (combat and attack aircraft, Russia has 1,511 and Ukraine 98). In the case of helicopters (attack and combat), Russia has 2,185 and Ukraine 136). Russia also continues to gain land potential with 12,420 tanks, quadrupling Ukraine's 2,596. On the other hand, Russia has 30,122 armored vehicles, and in Ukraine, the number is reduced to 12,303. Russia has 7,571 artillery weapons and Ukraine 2,040. At sea, the difference remains abysmal between the Russians, who have 605 warships, and the Ukrainians, with 38. Kyiv does not even have submarines to face Russia's 70 submarines. These differences are also reflected in the budget that both countries dedicate to defense: Russia has a budget 13 times larger than Ukraine's.

However, the story changes if we compare Russia with NATO. The Alliance has three and a half million troops: 3,891 combat aircraft, 13 aircraft carriers, 122 frigates, 22 submarines, 9,460 battle tanks, and 10,815 armored vehicles. Much higher figures when compared to the Russian Army: 711,000 troops which, if we break them down, represent 1,511 combat aircraft, 1 aircraft carrier, 11 frigates, 15 destroyers, 86 Corvettes, and 70 submarines (laSexta.com, 2022 and Global Firepower 2022).