Impact of Trump's Election on the Middle East Conflict Situation
In August 2024, before the election, the U.S. government approved a $20 billion arms sale to Israel. As a longstanding ally, the U.S. has consistently supported Israel, and Trump’s election is likely to strengthen this alliance further. During his previous presidency in 2017, Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, underscoring his administration's commitment to Israel’s priorities. With Trump's return, U.S. defense suppliers are expected to see increased demand for their export-approved equipment.
In terms of military capabilities, Iran surpasses Israel in land assets, including tanks, armored vehicles, and rocket artillery, while Israel maintains an advantage in self-propelled artillery. In the naval domain, Iran holds an edge with the exception of patrol vessels, where Israel has a lead. Iran’s military force is also nearly double Israel’s in terms of personnel. This escalating threat from Iran suggests that Israel will likely ramp up defense spending, especially on land systems like missile and air defense systems.
Iran's bolstering ties with Saudi Arabia and Russia may enhance its economic and infrastructure capabilities. While Iran’s rearmament has been gradual, it is expected to pick up pace, potentially pushing Israel to increase defense spending to maintain or shift the regional military balance in its favor.
The U.K. has been increasingly hesitant to supply arms to Israel due to concerns about their use in potential violations of international humanitarian law. While this doesn’t signal a complete halt, it shows a declining willingness to supply Israel as freely as before. Under Trump’s administration, there may be advocacy for the U.K. to resume arms exports to Israel, with similar discussions likely encouraged with NATO allies, potentially broadening Israel's defense sourcing options. In the interim, however, U.S. defense suppliers will have the most accessible route to meet Israel’s demands.
Meanwhile, an internal political crisis in Israel, involving the dismissal of the defense minister, may cause short-term delays in Israel’s defense contract activities. Although these delays could slow immediate execution, they are unlikely to redirect opportunities to new suppliers. This internal reorganization reflects an effort by Israel to align its defense operations with international humanitarian standards, potentially enhancing its eligibility for defense supply from regions beyond North America.
Additionally, a pro-Iran coalition has been emerging in the Middle East, involving transnational armed groups active across Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. The growing influence of these groups suggests a likely rise in attacks on Israel, with low-tech forces increasingly using commercial drones for military purposes. This poses a threat to Israel, highlighting vulnerabilities to IEDs and driving an urgent need for improved counter-drone capabilities and reinforced air defenses. As Iran has employed hypersonic missiles, Israel’s air defense requirements will extend to countering a broad spectrum of aerial threats, including Hypersonics.
The Trump administration will likely take these dynamics into account and support measures that enhance Israel’s defense, opening revenue opportunities for U.S. suppliers of missile and air defense systems, counter-drone technologies, and heavy artillery in the near term. While the US defense spending would remain about the same, the priorities could get realigned in the coming years depending on the level and depth of involvement of the US administration (internationally).
More than the Russian and Chinese involvement, the countries in the Middle East coming together despite their political differences will have the most impact in the short and long term. This could be the starting of a revitalized Arab Spring driving home the idea of Secular Arab Nationalism.
What do you think?
Arun