The Impact of Power Production in Mauritius: Balancing Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Amidst Climate Variability and Climate Change

Introduction

Mauritius is at a pivotal moment in its energy transition, striving to integrate more renewable energy sources while ensuring a stable and reliable power supply. Recent data collected for December 2024 and January 2025 reveals that solar power output on the ground averaged only 35% due to persistent cloud cover, raising concerns about the viability of solar as a primary energy source. Compounding this challenge, the country also experienced no significant rainfall, impacting hydropower generation and increasing reliance on fossil fuels. This article examines the impact of these factors on Mauritius’ power production and explores potential solutions to enhance energy security.

The Renewable Energy Landscape in Mauritius

Mauritius has committed to reaching 60% renewable energy by 2030 to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. The country's renewable energy mix includes:

• Solar Power: A growing sector with distributed rooftop solar, commercial solar farms, and hybrid storage solutions.
• Hydropower: Limited capacity, highly dependent on seasonal rainfall.
• Wind Energy: Contributes to the grid but remains inconsistent.
• Biomass: Primarily bagasse from sugarcane production, a significant contributor to the renewable mix.

However, the 35% solar power output on the ground during December and January highlights a major issue—seasonal fluctuations and cloud cover reduce the predictability and efficiency of solar energy production.

The Impact of No Rainfall on Hydropower

Hydropower remains a minor but critical component of Mauritius' energy mix. The absence of rainfall in these two months meant zero contribution from hydropower, which normally acts as a buffer for renewable energy shortfalls. This further strained the grid, requiring an increase in thermal power production.

Increased Reliance on Fossil Fuels

With both solar and hydropower underperforming, Mauritius had to rely more heavily on non-renewable sources, mainly coal and heavy fuel oil (HFO). The impact includes:

• Higher Electricity Generation Costs: Fossil fuels are subject to price volatility in global markets, increasing electricity costs.
• Increased Carbon Emissions: A setback for the country’s climate goals.
• Energy Security Concerns: High dependence on imported fuels exposes the nation to geopolitical risks and price shocks.

The Pareto Principle in Energy Production: The 80/20 Effect

The observed 80% cloud cover during these months aligns with the Pareto principle (80/20 rule) in energy reliability. In Mauritius, a small portion of the year (high cloud months) is responsible for a disproportionate reduction in solar energy output. This suggests that 20% of the time could account for 80% of energy shortfalls, emphasizing the need for a diversified and adaptive energy strategy.

Strategies to Overcome Renewable Energy Challenges

To mitigate these issues and ensure a stable energy supply, Mauritius must consider:

1. Hybrid Energy Systems: Combining solar with wind, biomass, and battery storage can provide more consistent energy supply.
2. Grid-Scale Energy Storage: Investing in large battery storage systems to capture excess solar energy during peak sunlight hours.
3. Enhanced Forecasting & Smart Grid Technologies: Advanced weather and energy modeling to anticipate fluctuations and adjust supply accordingly.
4. Diversification of Renewable Sources: Exploring offshore wind farms and tidal energy as alternative renewable sources.
5. Energy Efficiency Measures: Reducing peak demand through smart grids and consumer incentives.

Conclusion

Mauritius’ experience during December 2024 and January 2025 underscores the vulnerabilities of relying on intermittent renewable energy without robust backup systems. While renewable energy is essential for long-term sustainability, the country must implement integrated energy strategies that incorporate storage, diversified sources, and enhanced forecasting to ensure a resilient and stable power grid.

By addressing these challenges proactively, Mauritius can navigate the transition to a more sustainable energy future while minimizing economic and environmental risks.