The Impact of Migration on Kerala: An In-Depth Analysis

Imagine Kerala teeming with vibrant communities from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and other North Indian states, with North Indians becoming a prominent presence as Malayalis rush abroad in search of greener pastures. This is not a scene from a futuristic novel, but a plausible reality given the current trends in Kerala's migration patterns. Take Perumbavoor in Ernakulam district, for instance. What comes to mind first??

As Keralites look abroad for better opportunities and new horizons, Kerala's good infrastructure and development are viewed as a haven by North Indian migrants, who affectionately call it "heaven."

This dual migration phenomenon—Keralites moving out and North Indians moving in—is reshaping the state's cultural and economic landscape. While Malayalis dream of London and Europe, Kerala has become the dreamland for people from other Indian states. This dynamic underscores how far Kerala has advanced compared to other regions in India. As Kerala continues to develop, it faces the challenge of balancing the pros and cons of these migration flows.

Kerala, often celebrated for its picturesque landscapes and high literacy rates, is at a critical juncture as it faces a significant shift in its demographic and economic fabric. The state's migration trends, driven by various socioeconomic factors, present both challenges and opportunities. This article delves into the causes, current status, and future implications of migration in Kerala, highlighting the urgent need for strategic interventions.

???A Paradoxical Migration Pattern

Kerala's migration scenario stands in stark contrast to global trends where economically advanced countries attract and retain talent while outsourcing low-end tasks. In Kerala, however, a large number of educated youth are migrating abroad, replaced by migrant laborers from other states. Projections indicate that by 2030, the migrant workforce in Kerala will grow from the current 3.2 million to 6 million, constituting more than one-sixth of the state's population. This reverse migration trend underscores a complex economic reality.

???Historical Context: The Gulf Boom and Its Legacy

The discovery of oil in the Gulf countries and the subsequent oil boom in the 1970s initiated a massive wave of emigration from Kerala. Over 90 percent of emigration from Kerala is to the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain. In 1998, when the first Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) was conducted, Malayali emigrants to the Gulf stood at 1.4 million, and remittances from these emigrants to the state exceeded Rs. 13,000 crores. By 2004, the number of emigrants had increased to 2.4 million, and remittances had increased more than five times to Rs. 71,000 crores. However, by 2016, the Malayali migrant community had decreased by 10 percent to 2.2 million due to nationalization policies in the GCC countries and the shift of Malayalis to more specialized professions.

???Socioeconomic Indicators and Their Implications

The socioeconomic prospects of a region can often be gauged by three key indicators: the flow of people, the flow of capital, and the flow of goods and services. In Kerala, the outflow of young talent, coupled with an insufficient influx of investments and a trade deficit, paints a concerning picture. Surveys reveal that the youth are disillusioned with the state's future prospects, leading to a substantial brain drain that could precipitate economic decline and social imbalances.

???Youth Migration: Financial Realities and Aspirations

A significant portion of Kerala's youth, particularly those from families earning less than Rs. 5 lakh annually, are migrating to popular destinations such as the UK, Canada, Germany, the USA, and Australia. Despite financial constraints, accessible bank loans and travel agency services facilitate this migration. This trend reflects both a desire for better opportunities and a lack of faith in local prospects.

???The Role of Remittances in Kerala's Economy

It is not unfair to say that without remittances, Kerala would have had to adopt an entirely different economic growth path. Presently, remittances amount to over 35 percent of the state’s domestic product. Kerala is unique in this sense as no other large state in India depends so much on remittances. More than a third of remittances to Kerala are household remittances, supporting three to four family members back home. As remittances decline, the state has started to identify alternative means of employment and revenue generation.

???Post-Pandemic Migration Dynamics

The post-pandemic period has introduced new variables into Kerala's migration equation. The Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) aims to estimate current and return migration, profile emigrants and returnees, and identify major challenges faced by migrant workers. Issues such as job loss, wage theft, and health problems amid COVID-19 have highlighted the vulnerabilities of the migrant community. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective reintegration and rehabilitation strategies.

???The Modern Malayali Emigrant

The average Malayali emigrant is male, young, and has a secondary level of education. However, in the last twenty years, emigration from Kerala has become more inclusive, with increasing shares of women and the more educated. In 1998, while only 9 percent of emigrants were women, it increased to 15 percent by 2016. Female emigrants, particularly nurses, are often more educated than their male counterparts. Emigrants from Kerala maintain deep familial, cultural, and economic ties with their homeland, dramatically enhanced by technological improvements.

???Replacement Migration

With the recent decline in emigration rates, the next major chapter in Kerala's migration story is in-migration from other parts of India. It is estimated that there are close to 3 million internal migrants in Kerala, mainly from West Bengal, Orissa, Assam, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. In-migration is on the rise due to Kerala's high wage rates in the unorganized sector and its reputation for providing rights and welfare to migrants, rooted in its rich communist tradition. This internal migration phenomenon, however, has not yet gained prime importance in economic and sociological research.

???The Future: Looking Inwards

The long-term future of Kerala will likely be less dependent on emigration and remittances. With an aging population and changing global migration dynamics, Kerala must focus on creating a vibrant domestic economy. This includes:

1.? ? Investment in Local Opportunities ? : Enhancing local job opportunities through targeted investments in high-growth sectors.

2.? ? Skill Development Programs ? : Implementing robust skill development programs to equip the local workforce for emerging industries.

3.? ? Support for Return Migrants ? : Developing comprehensive reintegration programs for return migrants, including financial support, health care, and employment opportunities.

4.? ? Enhanced Data Collection and Analysis ? : Continuously expanding and refining the Kerala Migration Survey to keep abreast of evolving trends and challenges.

???Conclusion

Kerala's migration trends present a dual-edged sword. While the state continues to benefit from remittances, the outflow of educated youth and the influx of migrant laborers pose significant economic and social challenges. Addressing these issues through strategic investments, policy reforms, and comprehensive support systems is imperative to ensure sustainable growth and social harmony. The insights provided by the Kerala Migration Survey will be crucial in shaping the state's future trajectory, making it an indispensable tool for policymakers and stakeholders. Kerala’s success story, with all its complexities, can inspire a more inclusive and adaptable economic and social model for the future.