The Impact of Luck on Smart Decision-Making

Decision-making plays a pivotal role in shaping our destinies in life's complex journey. Conventional wisdom suggests that making good decisions is the key to achieving favorable outcomes. However, the reality is often more complex, and the correlation between good decisions and desired results is not always straightforward.

One reason good decisions may not lead to desired results is the illusion of control. Psychologists have long recognized that humans tend to overestimate their ability to influence events. This phenomenon, known as the illusion of control, can lead individuals to believe that their decisions have more impact on outcomes than they actually do. In a dynamic and unpredictable world, external factors beyond our control can significantly impact the trajectory of events, regardless of the quality of our decisions.

This unpredictability is where the role of luck becomes apparent. Luck, often defined as a force beyond our control, introduces an element of unpredictability into our lives. Serendipitous events, chance encounters, and unforeseen opportunities can profoundly impact our journeys, irrespective of the quality of our decisions.

In her insightful book Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke aptly illustrates that life often resembles a game of poker rather than chess, where uncertainty and unpredictability reign supreme. Unlike chess, where moves are meticulously calculated and set rules govern outcomes, life's complexity mirrors the fluid dynamics of a poker game, blending skill, chance, and adaptability. Despite our best efforts, luck inevitably plays a role, reminding us that even the most well-thought-out decisions can be swayed by unforeseen circumstances.

Accordingly, it's crucial to scrutinize choices regardless of their outcomes and adopt a reliable decision-making process to enhance decision-making skills. Relying solely on past successes influenced by luck can lead to disastrous results.

In 2019, the real estate landscape was characterized by a sense of cautious optimism, with many experts anticipating a potential market peak and the looming possibility of a crash in 2020. However, the unforeseen global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic defied these predictions, leading to a paradigm shift in the real estate sector.

Contrary to expectations, the market avoided a downturn and experienced a surprising surge in home prices. The pandemic-induced lockdowns and remote work trends contributed to a renewed demand for housing, prompting individuals to reevaluate their living situations. As a result, the real estate market displayed resilience in the face of economic uncertainties, highlighting the unpredictability inherent in the industry and the profound influence external factors can exert on its trajectory.

Dr. Ali Asadi is an author, senior management consultant, and international speaker. He specializes in helping professionals achieve success in today's highly competitive business environment. A well-respected entrepreneur who has written books purchased by professionals and success seekers in many countries, Ali's wisdom on many business topics is widely acclaimed.

Visit www.aasadi.com to learn more.