The impact of Donald Trump’s victory on global relations: A focus on China and Ukraine

Donald Trump’s election victory in 2024 will have significant consequences for global geopolitics, particularly for two countries—China and Ukraine.

Impact on China:

Trump's victory is expected to have a predictable yet significant impact on U.S.-China relations. President-elect Donald Trump has indicated plans to impose up to 60% import tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to prepare for the potential economic headwinds. In early response, the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC) held its session from November 4 to 8, several days later than initially planned, to finalize stimulus measures in light of the U.S. election outcome. Had Kamala Harris won, the stimulus might have been smaller; however, with Trump as president-elect, a more substantial stimulus was approved. Soon after the U.S. election, China introduced a large-scale stimulus package totaling RMB 10 trillion ($1.4 trillion) and hinted that even more stimulus would come in the near future. This move highlights the intense pressure China foresees from Trump’s trade policies. If these tariffs are enacted, China’s GDP could contract by 1 to 2 percentage points, according to Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs experts’ estimation. Under pressure from U.S. import tariffs, China may need to redirect its goods to new markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America to maintain its trade surplus, plus as China simply can’t fully count on its local demand, considering its current dullness. Yet, the problem is that the regions mentioned above, in case of excessive Chinese imports, may impose additional anti-dumping (AD) duties, as they may struggle to absorb large volumes of Chinese goods without threatening their local producers.

Thus, to counter the potential negative effects of U.S. tariffs, China is likely to respond by depreciating its currency to keep its exports competitive. Even though the RMB currently is set at a 14-month low level, JP Morgan anticipates that the Dollar-Yuan pair will plunge even lower, reaching 7.4 while UBS expects it set at 7.6 level, in case 47th American president fulfills his elections pledges.

The known composition of Trump’s administration—including individuals with a history of hostility toward China, some of whom even have previously faced Chinese sanctions. That indicates that the U.S. is likely to continue a hardline approach against China, which is definitely a negative development for China’s economy and its long-term trade strategy.

On the other hand, if the proposed tariffs on China are implemented, China won’t face these measures alone, as similar tariffs are expected to target imports from Europe, Mexico, Canada, and others. Additionally, it remains uncertain whether tariffs will actually reach the 60% level. Given Trump’s business-oriented approach, he may prefer to pursue a resolution through negotiations, aiming to protect American interests while potentially offering concessions to trade partners if certain goals are met.

Impact on Ukraine:

Turning to Ukraine, the situation is more complex. With Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, one pressing question remains: Can Donald Trump stop the ongoing war in Ukraine? His past statements, including a claim that he could end the conflict within 24 hours, along with reports of a recent phone call to Putin aimed at de-escalation, etc., suggest that he may indeed pursue a resolution to the Ukraine-Russia war.

At the same time, Trump’s reluctance to involve the U.S. in conflicts, especially through financial and military support, suggests that Ukraine could see a substantial reduction in aid, particularly after 2025. Trump’s newly appointed Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, exemplifies the pro-American officials who are pragmatic enough to avoid entangling the U.S. in conflicts that may be more costly than beneficial. “If Ukraine can defend themselves... great, but I don’t want American intervention driving deep into Europe and making [Putin] feel like he’s so much on his heels,” Reuters cited Pete Hegseth.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently refused to consider any ceasefire that would involve territorial concessions to Russia. His ultimate goal remains to restore Ukrainian control over all territories as of 1991, including Crimea and parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Kharkiv regions, which have been seized by Russia.

At the outset of the full-scale war launched by Russia on February 24, 2022, Zelensky’s determination to reclaim all Ukrainian territories was strongly supported by Ukrainian citizens and much of the international community. However, as the conflict has dragged on with mounting casualties among Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, public opinion has gradually shifted, with some prioritizing peace and an end to the bloodshed over the goal of full territorial integrity.

Thus, faced with dwindling support, Zelensky may eventually agree to a ceasefire agreement, perhaps with significant portions of Ukrainian territory—being ceded to Russia. How much Ukrainian territory might ultimately fall under Russian control remains uncertain. If Trump initiates truce talks between Russia and Ukraine within one to two months after his January inauguration, the Russian army may intensify efforts over the next two to three months to occupy as much Ukrainian territory as possible. Their objective would likely be to secure control over four regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—which Russia claims as its own under its “constitution”. However, Russia’s chances of fully capturing all four of the aforementioned Ukrainian regions within two to three months are close to zero.

Since accepting the loss of Ukrainian sovereign territory could mark the end of Zelensky’s political career, or even threaten his personal safety, his survival may depend on stepping down before any truce agreement is signed—allowing a new president to bear the responsibility for any compromises made. This would allow Zelensky to preserve his image and pass as not only a Ukraine protector, an elected president who has not “zabronzovel” (became an authoritarian leader, with indisputable authority) but gave away his power in democratic way through the national elections.

If this scenario plays out, the nature of the post-war economic landscape will be shaped by Ukraine’s continued dependence on foreign aid, albeit less focused on infrastructure and production, and more on sectors like agriculture and mining of mineral resources. The country will likely maintain some level of cooperation with American and European companies, though Ukraine will remain fragile in the short term due to safety concerns for the foreign big business.

Finally, for two-three years after the war, Ukraine will likely continue to enforce its current border restrictions for men aged 18 to 60, ensuring that the country retains a workforce for reconstruction efforts.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, Donald Trump’s election victory will not likely lead to profound shifts in U.S. foreign policy, yet have a significant impact particularly on China and Ukraine. While China faces economic challenges and uncertainty under Trump’s leadership, Ukraine’s immediate future hinges on its ability to navigate the complexities of the war and negotiate a potential ceasefire. Both countries will have to adapt to a changing global landscape shaped by Trump’s business-focused, and often unpredictable approach to international relations.