The Impact of Declining Pupil Numbers on School Estates Management

I recently spoke with a school governor about their estate team, and one of their biggest concerns was the decline in pupil numbers. Falling birth rates, economic pressures, and policy changes—such as the 20% VAT on private school fees from January 2025—are shaking up the education sector. While much of the conversation focuses on the impact on teaching staff, estates teams are facing their own serious challenges as budgets tighten but school buildings remain the same size.

Because no one told the school roofs about the financial crisis, and they continue to leak regardless.

1. Economic Challenges and Their Impact on Estates

Fewer pupils mean reduced per-pupil funding, which is a significant concern in the UK, where most school budgets are based on the number of students enrolled. However, here's the catch:

• The buildings? Still standing.
• The safety regulations? Still non-negotiable.
• The bills? Still arriving on time, every time.

This means estates teams are left juggling increasing demands with fewer resources, often leading to:

• Cutbacks in estates spending
• Staff reductions
• Deferred maintenance (until that ‘minor issue’ turns into a full-scale disaster)

?? Recent data shows that school enrolments in the UK dropped by 0.5% in the 2023/24 academic year, with some sectors experiencing increases and others decreases. Specifically, state-funded secondary schools and special schools saw growth, while primary schools and nurseries experienced declines.?

?? Looking ahead, the UK's birth rate has fallen by 15% since 2012, contributing to a projected decline in the number of school-age children over the coming years. Projections suggest a reduction in the total pupil population across primary and secondary schools, expected to fall from a peak of 7.57 million pupils in 2022/23 to 7.14 million by 2028/29.?

?? When budgets are squeezed, non-teaching areas like estates management are often first in line for cuts—because fixing a broken window can always wait, right? (Spoiler: it really can’t.)

Some academy trusts are managing resources across multiple sites, while independent schools are adjusting to lower enrolments, potentially cutting back on estates investment.

Key Challenges for Estates Teams

• Reduced Maintenance Budgets – Small problems today become expensive ones tomorrow.
• Job Cuts in Estates Teams – Fewer hands, but just as much work.
• Increased Reliance on specialists – Outsourcing can appear cost-effective initially but may lead to higher costs and a loss of in-house expertise.

2. How Estates Teams Are Adapting

Despite the financial pressures, estates teams are resourceful (because they have to be). Schools are finding smarter ways to manage buildings efficiently without breaking the bank.

? Proactive Maintenance Planning – Using estate management software to identify issues before they become disasters.

? Smart Procurement & Cost-Saving Measures – Bulk buying, collaborating with other schools, and negotiating long-term supplier contracts to stretch budgets further.

? Energy Efficiency Upgrades – Investing in LED lighting, smart heating, and insulation to cut costs without cutting corners.

?? A Different Way to Think About It

• Local Business Sponsorships – Schools could partner with businesses for funding in exchange for advertising space. (Not saying we should rename the science block to ‘The Greggs Centre for Excellence’… but if it keeps the lights on?)
• Community Skill-Sharing – Independent schools could work with alumni or local businesses to get discounted services or project sponsorships.

3. Societal Shifts and Changing Priorities in School Estates

It’s not just budgets that are changing—education itself is evolving. Schools are rethinking how their estates are used, with a push towards multi-use spaces, flexible learning areas, and shared resources. Some academy trusts are consolidating facilities across multiple sites.

How This Affects Estates Management

?? Uncertain Long-Term Planning – With fluctuating pupil numbers, schools need estates plans that can adapt. ?? Changing Learning Environments – More demand for versatile, multi-use spaces. ?? Increased Demand for Shared Facilities – Schools are exploring collaborative estate management.

Ways to Adapt

? Flexible Use of Space – Reconfiguring buildings to serve multiple purposes.

? Shared Services Across Schools – Pooling estate management resources for greater efficiency.

? Letting Out School Facilities – Proactively renting out sports halls, classrooms, or event spaces for extra income.

?? A Different Way to Think About It

• Collaborative Revenue Strategy – Schools could formalise facility rentals to ensure financial and safeguarding compliance while generating extra revenue.

4. The Impact of VAT on Private School Fees and Estates Teams

From 1 January 2025, all private schools in the UK applied a 20% VAT charge on fees, significantly increasing costs for families. This is likely to result in:

?? More pupils moving from private to state schools, increasing pressure on state-sector resources. ?? Independent schools facing financial strain, forcing cutbacks. ?? Potential site closures or mergers, especially in smaller independent schools.

Key Challenges for Independent Schools

• Pressure to Cut Back on Maintenance – Non-essential estates projects might be delayed indefinitely.
• More Scrutiny on Costs – Every pound spent on estates must be justified.
• Potential Site Closures or Mergers – Some schools may need to consolidate facilities.

How Estates Teams Can Adapt

? Data-Driven Estate Management – Using software to track maintenance needs and spending priorities.

? Energy & Cost Efficiency Reviews – Identifying where money might be being wasted to protect budgets.

? Balanced Approach to Outsourcing – Making informed choices between outsourcing and in-house teams.

?? A Different Way to Think About It

• Monetising Underutilised Spaces – Many independent schools have fantastic facilities that could generate revenue. From renting out facilities to partnering with local businesses, sports clubs, or other local schools, there are ways to bring in extra income while keeping the estate functional.

Conclusion

?? Declining enrolments don’t reduce the size of a school estate or its compliance requirements—they simply increase financial pressure on estates teams.

To navigate these challenges, schools, independent institutions, and academy trusts must adopt smarter, more cost-effective strategies to maintain their estates while ensuring legal compliance, safety, and sustainability.

By leveraging technology, adopting efficient procurement models, and exploring innovative revenue streams, estates teams can continue to provide high-quality learning environments for pupils and staff, even in financially challenging times.

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