Impact of climate change on crop yields, MENA Region

Intro

Following the UN’s World Urbanization Prospect Report of 2014, 54% of the world’s population now live in metropolitan areas. By 2050, this percentage will increase to 86% in advanced countries, and 64% in developing nations. Climate change coupled with population growth will deeply affect the availability and quality of water resources in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

However, Climate change may actually benefit some plants by?lengthening growing seasons and increasing carbon dioxide. Yet other effects of a warmer world, such as more pests, droughts, and flooding, will be less benign.

Changing Rain pattern

Climate change is not limited to increases in temperature and heat waves; large changes in rainfall patterns are also expected to occur. While some regions are likely to suffer from more droughts in the future, other regions are expected to face the opposing issues, more intense periods of heavy rain and longer dry periods even within the same regions.

The MENA countries are classified into three groups on the subject of water source and availability. The first group is countries having adequate quantities of renewable water, but the within-country and within-year variations are problematically large, such as Iran, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. The second group is countries that have low levels of renewable water resources and are highly dependent on non-renewable groundwater sources and supplies by desalination of seawater, like Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. The last group is countries that mainly depend on the inflow of trans-boundary rivers such as the Nile, the Tigris, and the Euphrates including Syria, Iraq, and Egypt.

Precipitation variability during the winter and summer seasons had a negative impact on crop patterns. 1 percent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in a 0.09 and 0.14 percent decrease in agricultural production, respectively; lead to a decrease in agricultural production in the MENA region by 0.037.

These impacts will require well-considered adaptation strategies, for instance, alternative freshwater sources such as desalination, to meet basic needs.

Degraded Soil

Typical monoculture cropping systems leave soil bare for much of the year, and rely on synthetic. These practices leave soils low in organic matter and prevent the formation of deep, complex root systems. Farmers may also increase irrigation in response to rising temperature and drought; further depleting precious water supplies. Build healthier, “spongier” soils?through practices such as planting cover crops and deep-rooted that?increase soil’s capacity?to soak up heavy rainfall and hold water for dry periods; Make farms stronger by?redesigning them as diverse agro-ecosystems, reducing dependence on fertilizers and pesticides, and reintegrating crops and livestock

Changes in crop and livestock viability

Farmers choose crop varieties and animal breeds that are well suited to local conditions. As those conditions shift rapidly over the coming decades, many farmers will be forced to rethink some of their choices which can mean making new capital investments, finding new markets, and learning new practices. Farmers will have to cope with new threats such as insects or weeds that couldn’t thrive in decades past may now find it a perfect fit, and farmers will have to adapt. The effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop's optimal temperature for growth and reproduction.

The warmer and drier climate is projected to shift vegetation, olive plantations, and agricultural zones northwards, by 75 km from 2090–2099 relative to 2000–2009.

Lower rainfalls and higher temperatures will shorten growing periods for wheat in the MENA region by about two weeks by mid-century (2031–2050). The wheat-growing period in Tunisia is expected to be shortened by 10 days, and by 20 days for Sea-level projections for Tangier.

Crop yields are expected to decline by 30 percent with 1.5–2 C warming-up, and to 60 percent with 3–4 C warming, with regional variation and without considering adaptation. Reductions in crop productivity of 1.5–24 percent are expected for the western Maghreb and 4–30 percent in parts of the Mashrek, by mid-century. Maize crops are expected to be worst affected in both regions as they are grown during the summer. However, some adaptation measures have the potential to compensate or even offset negative climate change impacts.

Governments and fundraising platforms

With climate change, farmers need science more than ever, yet public funding for research that can help them cope has been in short supply. Agro-ecology research which produces the kind of long-term root-deep solutions that can help farms has been particularly underfunded. Investments are important for the future of farming, rural communities, clean water, healthy food, and sustainable agriculture.?

This year, Lebanon in partnership with the Ministry of Labour, the Ministry of Social Affairs, the?United Nations?Development Programme (UNDP), and The International Labour?Organization?(ILO) are implementing the Employment Intensive Infrastructure Programme in Lebanon (EIIP). ILO launched a Call for Proposal (closed on 1st June 2020) to enhance productivity and employment in farming.

The proposal shall describe suitable farming activities in each municipality, the process for the development of a detailed work plan, strategy for progress monitoring and reporting, and generally describe the delivery of the project.

ILO will support up to four municipalities with important agricultural production in a way that will also directly benefit the farmers and generate short-term employment for unskilled and skilled farmworkers. The project aims to reclaim and cultivate new or idle land to increase crop production. Land may be owned by municipalities or local farmers.

For More information follow the link: https://www2.fundsforngos.org/latest-funds-for-ngos/call-for-proposals-eiip-2020-project-to-enhance-productivity-and-employment-in-farming-lebanon/

Wrap up

The negative effects of climate change on agriculture include increased crop damage from extreme heat, increased soil erosion, increased moisture stress, and severe floods. Seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature could alter growing seasons, planting, and harvesting calendars. In addition, water availability for irrigation and drinking will be less predictable because rainfall will be more variable. It is possible also that salt from rising sea levels may contaminate the underground freshwater supplies in coastal areas.

In addition to the harsh environment, the region needs to deal with inefficiency with regard to food crops and productivity that results in particular from impractical farming methods, and weak training and education. Limited opportunities for financing and lending have resulted in declining farm output.

It will, therefore, be necessary to introduce an integrated strategy that increases the options for controlling the demand on water resources and for encouraging their efficient usage. On the other hand, improving agricultural productivity will help to increase food supply and lower the reliance of the region on food imports. Accordingly saving our planet.