IMF conditions, Textile Outlook, Assets Declaration, Spy Balloon Saga, Turkey earthquake, US Wind Chill, Musharraf passes away.

TOPLINE

• The government says it 'will have to’ agree to IMF conditions to get the $1.3 billion loan tranche as the talks have been extended for 2 more days.
• The total production will be around 5 million bales and about 7 million bales of cotton will have to be imported. The spot rate increased to Rs 22,500 to Rs 23,000.
• Assets of all government officials and officers will have to be publicly declared. Army officers remain exempt from this condition.
• After an F-22 Raptor blasted an alleged Chinese spy balloon out of the sky off the coast of South Carolina. Beijing’s abrupt shift from expressing regret about the balloon’s flight to threatening retaliation over US action highlights the need for Xi to show he’s standing up for China against external pressure.
• A powerful 7.8 earthquake has hit a wide area in south-eastern Turkey, near the Syrian border, killing more than 500 people.
• Mount Washington (New Hampshire) sets an American national windchill record of 108 degrees below zero.
• Pakistan's former president General Pervez Musharraf has died aged 79.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Leather Export: Rs 19.5 billion was the value of tanned leather exported in July-Dec 2022, up 20% compared with Rs 16.2 billion last year. [ET]
• Sugar Import: Rs 744 million was the value of sugar imported in July-Dec 2022, down 98% compared to Rs 31.9 billion in the same period of last year, according to the PBS. [ET]
• Weekly Cotton Review: An alarming reduction of 2.6 million bales in cotton production is estimated this season. The total production will be around 5 million bales and about 7 million bales of cotton will have to be imported. At present, the import contracts of about 5.6 million bales have already been signed. There was an increase in cotton prices by Rs 1,500 per maund to Rs 22,500 to Rs 23,000. [BR]
• Prices of Essential Items: The price of live chicken has gone up to Rs 385 from Rs 365 per kilogram in the local market, while butchers are charging self-imposed rates with the boneless cow meat being sold at Rs 800 per kg and with bone at Rs 700 a kg against the official fixed price of Rs 350 per kg. The price of mutton has also skyrocketed, as it is being sold at Rs 1800-2000 per kg. Similarly, the price of farm eggs is on the higher side as they are being sold at Rs 300-320 per dozen in the market. Non-farm eggs on the other hand are being sold at Rs 500 and Chinese eggs at Rs 400 a dozen. [BR] [BR]
• Olive Saplings: The Balochistan government is gearing up to plant 300,000 trees during the coming spring season in the province in a bid to promote greenery and reduce the effects of global warming. [ET]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Duty on Castor Oil: The Customs Classification Committee of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has endorsed the viewpoint of an importer for charging customs duty of Rs 9,050 per metric ton (MT) on the import of loctite Liofol LA 6020’ (castor oil having naturally occurring polyester). [BR]
• Thar Coal to Non-Power Sectors: Thar coal has come a long way. Two blocks are functional with an installed power generation capacity of 2,000 megawatts. [ET]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• IMF Demands: Technical level talks between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team and Pakistani authorities have been extended for two more days on the power sector with the Fund demanding withdrawal of power subsidy to the export-oriented sector and additional taxes. The government says it 'will have to’ agree to IMF conditions to get the $1.3 billion loan tranche.? [BR] [BR] [ET]
• Steel Industry: The steel industry of Pakistan, facing a severe crisis, has made an urgent appeal to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to open letters of credit (LCs) for the import of essential raw materials. [BR]
• Sheikh Rashid Judicial Remand: An Islamabad court on Saturday sent Awami Muslim League (AML) leader and PTI ally Sheikh Rashid to jail on 14 days judicial remand after he was arrested on Thursday for allegedly making defamatory remarks against the PPP leadership. [Dawn] [Geo]
• Benami Transactions of Civil Servants: To check money laundering and Benami transactions, the government has finally allowed banks to access asset declarations of Civil Servants of BS-17 to BS-22 as a prior condition for the opening of bank accounts. [BR]
• Pak-Afghan Transit Trade: Customs authorities have assured the traders attached with Pak-Afghan transit to take pragmatic steps to resolve their issues on priority basis and accelerate the goods’ clearance process at the various border check posts. [BR]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• Oil Prices: Oil prices fell to over three-week lows on Friday in a volatile session, after strong US jobs data raised concerns about higher interest rates and as investors sought more clarity on the imminent EU embargo on Russian refined products. Brent crude futures fell $2.23, or 2.7%, to $79.94 a barrel, after rising to a session high of $84.20. It hit a session low of $79.72, its lowest since Jan. 11. US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) ended down $2.49, or 3.3%, at $73.39, after trading between $78.00 and $73.13, its lowest since Jan. 5. [BR]
• US-China Relations: This weekend was supposed to be a step forward in ties between the US and China, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken arriving in Beijing for the first such visit in more than four years. But after an F-22 Raptor blasted an alleged Chinese spy balloon out of the sky off the coast of South Carolina. Beijing’s abrupt shift from expressing regret about the balloon’s flight to threatening retaliation over US action highlights the need for Xi to show he’s standing up for China against external pressure. [Bloomberg]
• Earthquake Shakes Turkey & Northwest Syria: A powerful earthquake has hit a wide area in south-eastern Turkey, near the Syrian border, killing more than 500 people and trapping many others. The US Geological Survey said the 7.8 magnitude tremor struck at 04:17 local time (01:17 GMT) at a depth of 17.9km (11 miles) near the city of Gaziantep. Turkish Vice-President Fuat Oktay said the death toll in Turkey had now risen to 284 people. In Syria, more than 230 people were killed, state media reported. [BBC] [Dawn] [DS] [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera]
• Wall Street Week Ahead: US stock bulls are taking heart from a range of market signals pointing to an upbeat year for Wall Street, as equities sit on impressive gains despite worries that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening may plunge the economy into a recession. [BR]
• Qatar Sends Envoy to Kabul: An envoy for Qatar’s foreign affairs minister visited the Afghan capital on Sunday and met with the Taliban administration’s acting foreign minister [BR]
• Russia-Ukraine War: Russia’s defense ministry accuses Ukraine of preparing to blow up buildings in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk and then accuse Moscow of carrying out war crimes and targeting civilians in a false flag operation. [BR]
• Arctic Blast Hits Northeastern US & Canada: Minus 108 Farenheit: That’s how cold it felt on top of New Hampshire’s Mount Washington early Saturday, as an air mass that normally squats over the Arctic surged into the temperate latitudes and set wind chill and absolute-temperature records across the region. [WP] [CNN] [Economic Times] [NYT] [USA Today] [Twitter]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Pakistan's former president General Pervez Musharraf has died after health complications, aged 79. [BR] [Dawn] [Dawn] [Geo] [BBC] [CNN] [Reuters]
• Pakistan Expresses Unflinching Support for Kashmiris on Kashmir Day, 5 February. [BR] [Dawn] [ET] [Geo]
• Opinion: Both IMF, Govt Need Serious Policy Path Correction - “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its recently-released flagship report ‘World Economic Outlook [WEO] update: inflation peaking amid low growth’ indicated that while the economic growth prospects globally had improved for 2023 – as compared to its October 2022 forecast, and mainly on the back of stronger growth from India and China – yet growth was lower than last year while inflation still remains at an elevated level.” - By Omer Javed [BR]